John Clay to the NFL?

Last week the Journal Sentinel had a story about UW coaches seeking input about John Clay's NFL draft stock. It was an appropriate story to write: Clay is in line to be the Big Ten's offensive MVP, and as a third-year player he is eligible to enter the draft.

John has to look into it -- it's his professional vocation on the line -- but my sense is that he's best served waiting another year or even two. From my living room floor, here's how he stacks up.

Pros: Great size, lean, decent medium-range speed, pad level, nose for the end zone

Cons: Lack of breakaway speed (Fresno TD run notwithstanding), receiving ability (no chance to showcase yet), physical style has led to some injuries, ball security -- early in the year, and late in the loss to Northwestern

Without looking at all the other potential draftees among running backs, Clay seems like a third round pick at best, fifth or sixth round pick at worst. He's probably better than P.J. Hill was a year ago at this time, but not by a mile.

If Clay left, a Montee Ball-Zach Brown combo wouldn't be terrible going into next year. But a Clay-Ball-Brown rotation would be nasty and the driving force for what could be a huge 2010 for us.

UW-Maryland thoughts

Nice win against a ranked team, one that might pay big dividends come March.

I like what this team looks like right now. Good guard play. Improved outside shooting. A go-to post scorer. Lots of big bodies inside to give fouls. Young players bringing energy.

We had Duke a week from now, a game we probably won't win, but looking at the rest of the schedule I'm thinking we're 10-3 heading into the Big Ten, at worst. An Arizona-Gonzaga-Maryland-Duke run makes for a very high quality non-conference schedule.

-My one beef today is with the turnovers, way too many. And while Maryland's defense was good, the turnovers were self-inflicted. Shooting 49.1% and making 10 3-pointers can cover that up, but I'd rather hang onto the ball.

-The scoring was balanced early, then Jason Bohannon took over, then Jon Leuer, and J-Bo's free throw shooting finished things off. What did I say about J-Bo making 75% of his clean looks? Today he was 4-of-5, and when he has the ball in his hands at the end of the game I feel like it's over.

-Leuer didn't do much for awhile, but in the second half he found the places he likes to be in the post and scored on a variety of moves. At 6-10, I can't think of a lot of guys can shut him down playing behind him. Our opponents are either going to have to deny him, double him, or use footwork to push him further away from the rim.

-Really liked Ryan Evans' dunk early. No, it's not my high school infatuation with dunking, but more a reflection of aggressive play. Keaton Nankivil missed another attempt later (fouled in the process), but I still liked it.

-Trevon Hughes had a poor shooting game but did a great job on Greivis Vazquez, whose 18 points were deceiving and not impactful.

-Obviously didn't like all the turnovers, but we did have a healthy 14 assists. Also outrebounded the Terps 33-24, with Keaton, Leuer, and Mike Bruesewitz active on the offensive glass.

-In the immediate postgame Doug Gottlieb said, in praising Leuer, "You look at the Badgers and wonder who's going to replace the scoring and athleticism of Joe Krabbenhoft." Krabby was many wonderful things for our program and I love him, but those are two words that have never been pinned to him, at least not in his collegiate career.

Very productive trip to Hawaii: two wins and an understandable loss. Duke next week represents an opportunity like the Texas game two years ago -- win and the guys might start seeing something special is possible.

UW-Gonzaga thoughts

Not really disappointed with this loss. I watched Gonzaga's game at Michigan State last week, and they played Sparty really tough before losing. They're athletic, skilled, deep, balanced, and well-coached. Might not be quite as good as some of their recent editions, but they could get to that point. Beating them would have been a huge resume builder, but losing is no big deal.

Some things to like in tonight's game:

-Jon Leuer played very well. He seems to have a good sense on where he should go on the floor in order to find 8- or 10-foot jumpers, turnaround or otherwise. Trevon Hughes didn't have his best game, but we know what he's capable of. With Pop and Leuer, we've got two go-to guys who can create their own shot in different ways, which is nice.

-Jordan Taylor was my second star of the game, he played very, very well. I still see him as more of a caretaker than a scorer, but he's shown flashes of being a go-to guy. He didn't shoot free throws well.

-Both of our point guards struggled containing Demetri Goodson's penetration. Then again, there will be a lot of guys who struggle to hang with him this year.

-Keaton Nankivil missed multiple dunk attempts for the second straight night, as Erik Olson pointed out on Twitter. My response to that was that I hope Keaton keeps trying to throw those down -- better to err on the side of being overly aggressive than trying to lay it in.

-Jason Bohannon still struggles to get his shot off against good defenders. He did get a few clean looks tonight that he missed. It's to the point where against good teams, he's got to make, oh, 75% of his clean 3-point looks if we're going to end up on top.

-The ease with which Robert Sacre caught and scored in the post is disconcerting. We don't have an elite shot blocker, and our height is average, so we can't let 7-footers catch the ball four feet from the basket.

-Still searching for a plus inbounds player from under the basket. If I drew one up and emailed it to Bo Ryan, do you think he'd use it? I've got an old Leroy Young special nicknamed Pick For The Picker.

-Did you see that shot of a shirtless Bo from the team's snorkeling trip? Hot stuff!

So we get Maryland tomorrow for third place. They're projected as an NCAA tournament team, we're not, so it's another chance to build the resume. Guessing that after two hours I'll be sufficiently sick of Greivis Vasquez, a fine player who seems too cocky for my tastes.

UW-Arizona in Hawaii?

Did you watch the Badger basketball game in Hawaii last night? I didn't -- but recorded it and am watching it right now. Would rather be sleeping, but Charlie apparently would not.

Know that we won, which is great. Know that we got off to a great defensive start. Know that Pop played well, as did Nankivil, who had another explosive dunk. Know that we will typically need Jon Leuer to play more than 10 minutes to beat good teams.

I'm only midway through the first half right now, but the last thing I know is that Mike Bruesewitz looked very impressive against the Wildcats -- active, physical, versatile. See that he earned 22 minutes of playing and grabbed seven rebounds, three offensive. Frankly, if he's good enough to do that on a semi-regular basis I'll be pleasantly surprised and we'll be that much deeper and better.

At the point I'm at in the game we're shooting too many jumpers and not getting to the line, but overall the play has been good.

So we've got Gonzaga tonight. They looked very tough to me in playing Michigan State down to the wire in Lansing, so we'll have our hands full. But it's a prime time game on ESPN during a big college basketball week, so we're already winners.

Final Big Ten thoughts

I've said it several times this year, but to reiterate: the Big Ten was not good this year. The best team is unimaginative and has lots of holes. The worst team is the winningest program of all time. Lots of mediocrity in the middle. Hopefully Big Ten football can get back on track, like basketball has.

1. Ohio State. Good team. If I were a Buckeye fan (and thank goodness I'm not, couldn't look in the mirror), I would be incredibly frustrated with the offense. Yes, Jim Tressel's uber-conservative philosophy wins games and such, but they don't beat elite teams that way. They probably have the talent to do so, but not the temperament. If I'm Terrelle Pryor, I watched that Oregon-Arizona game Saturday night, saw what Jeremiah Masoli was doing in that offense, and kicking myself for casting my lot with the modern day Woody Hayes.

2. Iowa. Only scoring 12 points at home against Minnesota? Ugh. Nasty defense, though. Let's hope Kirk Ferentz jumps to Notre Dame or the NFL, he has the Hawkeyes rolling again.

3. Penn State. Saturday showed that they are clearly better than Wisconsin, because of their defense, best in the league in points allowed. Offense led the league in third down conversion perentage. Also, they won in Evanston.

4. Wisconsin. Us or Northwestern in this spot? I think we beat them by two touchdowns in Madison, one on a neutral field. We didn't beat a team that ended with a winning conference record this year. I like that we led the conference in time of possession again.

5. Northwestern. They do it with smoke and mirrors. If they jump us in the bowl selection process, it would not be undeserved.

6. Michigan State. The conference's most disappointing team. What happened? They ranked just behind Minnesota in penalties this year, shades of the Same Old Spartans. Greg Jones is the best player in the conference.

7. Purdue. I feel bad that they didn't qualify for a bowl. Their game at Camp Randall aside, they were much improved this year, but still a long way from contending for a conference title.

8. Minnesota. This is progress? In three years under Tim Brewster they've gone 1-11, 7-6 and are now 6-6 with the chance for a bowl win looking slim, whoever they play. They lose Eric Decker, and their offense was awful without him. Like Rich Rodriguez is doing at Michigan, Brew will probably make thinly veiled references to poor recruiting by his predecessor, but Glen Mason was winning consistently until he was fired. Here's what would trouble me: the Gophers were the most penalized team in the conference this year, and they sure don't have enough talent to overcome that. That's a reflection on the coaching, as it was on UW in 2008.

9. Illinois. You could say they were the most disappointing team in the conference because of all the talent on that roster, but this is what you expect from a Ron Zook team.

10. Indiana. I bet they make a bowl game next year. Like Purdue, they're not far from six or seven wins. But while their passing game is nice, their defense may be even worse next year, and it was pretty bad this year.

11. Michigan. Watched the second half of the Ohio State game Saturday, and the announcers were talking about how RichRod had shared with them that Tate Forcier was struggling academically, and discussed how Forcier's brothers had both transferred. Forcier's play declined this season, but aside from Brandon Graham, he was the lone bright spot for Michigan this season. If he leaves, they start all over again at quarterback again, which means they'll struggle again. Rodriguez talks about underperforming in February, but per Rivals, their recruiting classes have ranked (nationally) eighth in 2009, 10th in 2008, 12th in 2007, 13th in 2006, sixth in 2005. Ohio State is the only Big Ten program that has been comparable. It's coaching, dude.

Actual all-conference Badgers

So how did I do? Not bad. Underestimated John Moffitt, Jay Valai and Brad Nortman. Happy to be right on the rest.

LB Chris Borland, Fr.
Big Ten Freshman of the Year (media and coaches)
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Lots of very good linebackers in the Big Ten, couldn't see him any higher than HM.

T Gabe Carimi, Jr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media)
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
So the coaches think someone named Dennis Landolt from Penn State is better than Gabe? Huh.

RB John Clay, So.
Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year (media and coaches)
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)

TE Garrett Graham, Sr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media)
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
Tony Moeaki being chosen over him on the coaches first team is a joke.

S Chris Maragos, Sr.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Big Ten Sportsmanship honoree
I like the sportsmanship award more than the HM. Great honor for another great walk-on story.

G John Moffitt, Jr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Who'd have thought the public face/mouth of the program would be a guard?

P Brad Nortman, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (coaches)
I nitpick with him, but Brad was very solid this year, few worries about him.

DE O’Brien Schofield, Sr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Very surprised that both OB and Jared Odrick were first team picks over Ryan Kerrigan and the Ohio State guys.

QB Scott Tolzien, Jr.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (coaches)

WR Nick Toon, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)

S Jay Valai, Jr.
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media)

DE J.J. Watt, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media)

Also of interest:

-Ohio State's defense had one first team pick, Kurt Coleman.

-The coaches made Juice Williams an HM pick. Huh?

-The media made Terrelle Pryor an HM pick. Huh? The Juice/Pryor guys must have cast their votes in August.

-There weren't many top-flight running backs in the conference this season.

-Here's my favorite selection: Eric Decker was a Sportsmanship Award honoree by the coaches. Apparently no one asked Jack Ikegwuonu or his testicles.

All-conference Badgers

The Big Ten will reveal its all-conference football teams tonight, and Wisconsin should be better-represented than last year, when Allen Langford and Garrett Graham were the only two all-league Badgers. Here's how I see our potential selections breaking down.

First team
John Clay -- No brainer, leads the conference in rushing and touchdowns. Should be offensive player of the year. (Aside: it's sort of hilarious that Terrelle Pryor and Juice Williams were the odds-on picks for offensive player of the year in the preseason, isn't it?)

Gabe Carimi -- Best lineman on the league's highest-scoring offense.

Garrett Graham -- Easily the best receiving tight end in the conference, also an asset in the run game.

O'Brien Schofield -- Started really hot, and though he didn't maintain his breakneck pace as the competition stiffened, he set the tone early for a defense which exceeded expectations this year. Part of me fears that he may get lost in the shuffle of all the Big Ten's excellent defensive linemen -- Brandon Graham, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Ohio State's guys -- but OB should be one of the top four.

Honorable mention
Scott Tolzien -- Had a really nice season. Other quarterbacks may have better numbers and may be more dynamic, but I'm happy with our guy.

Nick Toon -- If he played in an offense that passed more, or on a team that was behind more, his numbers would be much better and he'd be a first teamer.

Chris Maragos -- Had four interceptions and played really well, but there were at least four better defensive backs in the league this year.

J.J. Watt -- Nice debut. With Schofield gone next year expect him to elevate his game.

Chris Borland -- Can you choose a special teams player who isn't a returner or kicker? If they have a plcae for someone like this, Borland makes it. Second in the league in forced fumbles and tied for first in fumbles recovered despite only starting a handful of games. A playmaker.

John Moffitt -- A second guy from the line that led the league's top rushing attack ought to earn some sort of all-conference honors. But who? Moffitt? Josh Oglesby? Peter Konz? Kevin Zeitler? I probably picked Moffitt because he's so gregarious, but despite some rocky moments he has opened plenty of holes on the left side and pulling right.

Hopefully I forgot a guy or two, and of these second-tier guys get bumped up, but either way there have been plenty of individual performances to be happy with this year.

UW-Northwestern box score

Reviewing the box score from our loss in Evanston, there still wasn't much to like.

-Wayne Larrivee and Chris Martin (who I probably came down on too hard on Saturday) kept talking about how Northwestern pushes tempo and shoots for 80 offensive plays. Turns out they ran 66 and we ran 65.

-They had nine penalties. If they had played a clean second half, the final score probably wouldn't have been that close.

-Same with third down conversions. The finals were 6-of-14 for them, 4-of-13 for us, but they were converting over 50% until near the end. This is an area in which we've really improved this year, on both sides of the ball, but Saturday we weren't good on third down.

-Have we run that end around to Lance Kendricks since he gained almost 100 yards on it during the Purdue game? Why not?

-Who was our defensive star of the game? Blake Sorensen led in tackles but didn't seem to make any big plays. Devin Smith broke up two passes and had seven tackles, but seemed to get burned in coverage on a regular basis. Jae McFadden had a tackle for loss and fumble recovery, but also had a blatant facemask penalty.

Chris Borland had a quiet game, credited with a forced fumble but seeing the replay I question that. O'Brien Schofield and J.J. Watt were effectively neutralized. Niles Brinkley had a big hit on Northwestern's last real possession to break up a third down pass.

How about Jeff Stehle, who tipped a pass and had a sack?

UW-Northwestern thoughts

Any time the Badgers lose to Northwestern, in any sport, it really stings. Why? Because the school does not care about athletics. The students, faculty, alumni, surrounding area -- no one cares. Clearly.

They are the Big Ten's premier academic institution, and for that they should be lauded. That's what universities should strive for. But their facilities are laughable, their athletes less talented, their paying fans far fewer in numbers than most of the conference.

And yet, our football team never seems to win in Evanston. Much to the delight of the several thousand polite people wearing purple, whose individual cheers were audible during the broadcast. Their students rushed the field after this game, which made them 5-3, 8-4 and likely gave them an Alamo Bowl berth. Really? I thought these kids were smart.

The final margin was two points, but it wasn't that close. We were outplayed from start to finish. Winning that game would have been highway robbery. I would have taken that, of course, but it it would not have been deserved. Northwestern took it to us and got the result they deserved.

At some point in the fourth quarter Charissa Thompson remarked that the Badgers' sideline was quiet, and had been all game, while Northwestern's was enthusiastic and lively. That showed on the field. Our guys had their moments, but it felt like they were going through the motions. Northwestern played with enthusiasm and heart.

Overall, I'm still really happy with the way this season has played out, and will elaborate more on that later, but today sucked.

-I hate harping on individual guys, they're amateurs giving it their best, but Isaac Anderson had the worst game by an individual Badger in recent years that I can remember. First offensive play of the game he drops a touchdown pass. Then he muffs the kickoff return and gives us awful field position. Then his holding call wipes out a first down catch and run by Nick Toon (who had another nice game). Then he's penalized for running forward before the snap on a play in which he caught a touchdown pass. Ike's had a nice year for us, but he really struggled today.

-Thought Scott Tolzien played a nice game. He generally found open guys, although he wasn't able to avoid the pass rush at key times.

-Awesome game for Garrett Graham, who sewed up all-conference honors today. They could not hang with him.

-During the game I was writing a post on John Clay's NFL draft prospects, and remarked that his ball security has been much better since he had his problems early this year. Then he coughs it up on not much of a hit when we're driving in for the go-ahead score. In my mind he's still clearly the Big Ten's offensive player of the year, but today was not one of his better days.

-There will probably be some praise for Mike Hankwitz in the aftermath of this one, but we still scored 31 points, so their defense wasn't that good. There's a good chance we might end up leading the conference in scoring this year.

-The secondary did not have its best day today, but a lackluster pass rush had a lot to do with their struggles. Mike Kafka had plenty of time to throw, and when we did get close to him we generally weren't able to bring him down. Decent player.

-Defense made it the entire year without allowing 100 yards rushing to a Big Ten opponent. Sort of unbelievable, no?

-Can't think of a single defensive player who stood out as playing well individually today.

-I've been tough on David Gilreath for his returns this season, but that punt return for a touchdown today was really nice. Not spectacular, but excellent execution between the returner and his blockers was textbook.

-Despite the general lack of interest surrounding Northwestern sports, they still wind up having good teams from time to time because of the sheer will of leaders like Pat Fitzgerald. That guy is a hell of a coach, and as long as they hold on to him -- which should be a long time -- they will be competitive.

Boy am I glad I didn't make the trip to Evanston today!

UW-Northwestern halftime thoughts

Wow, that was horrible. Northwestern is a slightly above-average team, well-coached, but they looked like the freaking 1984 San Francisco 49ers in the first half. I honestly don't see any way we win this game, our guys look uninterested, and our coaches overmatched.

-Isaac Anderson's first half performance sums it up. On our first play he drops a touchdown pass on a perfectly thrown ball from Scott Tolzien. Later he muffs a kickoff, then doesn't realize he needs to hustle after it and get it out of the end zone.

-Tolzien has played reasonably well. Paul Chryst has done a good job of getting Garrett Graham open, and Scotty has found his tight end.

-That doesn't really matter if we can't get the running game going. I can't think of one run thus far that has indicated we're ready to bust out. And this isn't Iowa or Ohio State we're playing against here, it's Mike Hankwitz stopping us with smoke and mirrors.

-We've had absolutely no pass rush so far, so while you can say our defensive backs have been clueless, Mike Kafka has had all day to find his guys.

-Poor special teams again. We allow their slow kickoff return guy to take one back into our territory, untouched except for a pathetic tackle attempt. Brad Nortman booms a coffin corner punt almost out of Northwestern's end zone. Anderson's muff.

-On Twitter our guy Randy Kessler commented that he hates Wayne Larrivee. If he weren't the Packers' radio guy I'd hate him 100% of the time, too, now I tolerate him for three hours on Sundays. Pair him with Chris Martin, terrible all the time but even more annoying calling a game with his alma mater, Northwestern, and when we're playing poorly ... it's tough to listen to.

-Seeing the see of red at Northwestern's high school stadium (Jim Polzin estimates that in his sight line it's 80-20 UW-NU fans, although he can't see a large portion of the stands) made me feel good, but if I was with my fellow Badger fans right now I would be incredibly upset for having made the drive.

I was trying to figure out what this does for our bowl prospects, but right now I'd be better off going to help Jana paint our laundry room. We're going with a very bright yellow, in case you're interested.