Rushing toward a new identity?

Wisconsin's 3-0 start to the year has not been entirely unexpected, but some parts of the Badgers' play have been. Most notable, I think you'd agree, has been the proficiency of Scott Tolzien and the passing game.

After last year's Allen Evridge-Dustin Sherer nightmare, this year's passing numbers are stunning. A 69% completion ratem, 9.2 yards per pass, 13.3 yards per catch, 226 yards per game. Great distribution to our various talented receivers. If that completion percentage were to somehow hold up, it would be the best mark in school history; the previous was 67.5% in 1993, led by Darrell Bevell.

Thing is, we're only averaging 199.3 rushing yards per game. This is only 12 yards per game less than last year's conference-leading total, and within a yard of where we were in 2007. But ...

-Take out Curt Phillips' 126 yards, and that average falls to 176 yards per game. True, Phillips' running is not a fluke, it's a legitimate facet of our offense. But it's not powerful, up-the-gut, Badger rushing.
-The per-rush average is 5.0, but take out Phillips' contribution, and the average falls to 4.76 yards per carry.
-These numbers would be just fine if we had played three BCS schools, but we didn't. We gained 258 against Wofford, when an appropriate number would have been, oh, 450.

With Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, et al still to go on the schedule, it's a safe bet that the per-game and per-carry rushing averages will decrease significantly by season's end. The passing proficiency too.

But if these trends hold to some extent, is it necessarily a bad thing? One of the things I've loved about Wisconsin football since Barry Alvarez came to Madison was the power football mentality. The big linemen, the big backs -- pound the rock! Love it.

However, our best offenses, and most often our best teams, have featured better passing teams and better offensive balance (1998 notwithstanding, sorry Mike Samuel). You don't see too many overly one-dimensional teams playing in BCS bowl games nowadays.

So I guess as long as we're gaining yards and scoring points somehow, I'll be happy. But if we could somehow get 300 yards rushing on Sparty this Saturday, I'll be happiest.

Good bye, seniors

The other day I was taking down the 2008 Wisconsin football poster/calendar in my office to make room for the one Jana made me. Before doing so I looked one last time at the guys on the poster who, for all the disappointments of this season, still contributed to 38 wins in their careers. Not too shabby.

Mike Newkirk
Good contributor for several years. His dad says he's bulked up to 275 pounds and could play in the NFL. We'll see. Part of me thinks if we'd had a really good line, he would have been best suited to be a backup who could play 50% of the snaps swinging between end and tackle.

Jason Chapman
Chappy was never the same after his knee injury. It was a shame, he was so quick off the ball. Every time he'd get whistled for jumping the snap I'd get upset with him, but then remember all the times he got away with it and disrupted the opponent's backfield.

Matt Shaughnessy
Never became the star many thought he would become after his strong freshman year, but always produced. Who knows, maybe his production will increase as a professional. The thing I'll remember about him is he always seemed to be disciplined, staying at home on reverses or quarterback rollouts. And don't forget, he was playing with a heavy heart this year.

Eric Vanden Heuvel
Not a star, but it was obvious the line was at its best this year when he was at right tackle.

Andy Kemp
The memory of Kemp I'll retain is of him chucking his helmet in celebration after the win over Cal Poly this year, out of character for a seemingly quiet kid, but enjoyable to watch. Against the weak non-conference teams we played he had success pulling. Will be interesting to see if he gets a shot professionally.

Dave Peck
I've already got Will practicing long snapping, it can earn you a Division 1 scholarship, and maybe a shot at the NFL. Don't know if Dave is good enough for that, but who would've thought Mike Solwold was?

Kraig Urbik
Only special players start four years on our offensive line. Joe Thomas, Chris McIntosh, Casey Rabach ... Kraig Urbik. Nice to see him get All-American honors from ESPN.com, even if it was sort of a stretch -- not that he didn't perform well, it's just that he was hurt this season.

DeAndre Levy
What I'll remember about Dre was his reaction after our embarrassing loss at Penn State in 2007. It was genuine, heartfelt, and showed that he really cared, which is not always the impression that some of these guys give. He represented the Milwaukee City Conference well, and hopefully inspired some of those kids to take football more seriously.

Travis Beckum
His emergence as a star in 2006 was one of the most pleasant surprises of a pleasantly surprising season, and he kept it up in 2007. That was more important than just on-field production. Becks was one of the most highly-rated recruits we've ever brought in, and had he failed, it would have hurt future recruiting. He was obviously not going to cut it at linebacker -- too tall -- and he lacked the instincts and aggressiveness to play defensive end. Kudos to the coaching staff for finding the right spot for his abilities, and kudos to Travis for making the most of the opportunity.

Allan Evridge
To think: I was expecting and hoping for him to beat out Tyler Donovan for the starting job in 2007. The thought was that a two-year starter would be better than back-to-back one-year starters. Wrong-o, T.

Jonathan Casillas
Anyone who was at the Metrodome for our 2005 game will remember him for his involvement in the greatest blocked punt in UW history. He was a playmaker on defense, too, when healthy. I hope he gets a shot in the pros, maybe he'll make an impact on some team's special teams and maybe get a shot at being a backup safety.

Ryan Flasch
When he transferred in I thought he'd factor into the mix at linebacker, but no.

Chris Pressley
Solid kid for the program. Heard that Bielema said few kids get as much out of playing college football as Pressley has, which is a great compliment. He'll represent UW well in whatever he chooses to do after college.

Josh Neal
Moved around a lot -- linebacker, fullback, defensive line -- wherever he was needed. Seemed to be a favorite of his teammates.

Bill Rentmeester
Favorite memory: his eight-yard run to clinch the Fresno State game. Apparently he was also a killer on special teams, although it never jumped out at me.

Allen Langford
Who would've thought this guy would be the well-deserved team MVP as a senior? What a story. Not as talented as Jack Ikegwuonu, but he wasn't a major liability when teams avoided throwing at Ike. Hurts his knee as a junior, but unlike many guys makes a full recovery in time for his senior season. Thrown out there with two rookie corners on the other side, and the secondary holds its own for the most part. Langford comes off like he was a 10-year NFL veteran, a consummate professional who happens to still be an amateur. He probably won't get the chance to play professionally, but I could see him being a good coach.

Damn, that was a good class. Probably the most individual talent of a departing senior class in a few years. No way they should have lost six games. It will be interesting to see how the coaching staff produces with classes made up of more Dave Pecks than Travis Beckums.

Badger football: Where are we headed?

Today is my dad's 59th birthday. He started taking me to Badger games a couple years before the start of the X axis on this graph, in 1988, but by the time of Barry Alvarez's first year, 1990, the story was the same. One win.

I'm pretty sure that if you asked my dad, while we were sitting at Camp Randall through a 28-12 loss to California in Barry's first game as coach, to plot a graph of Wisconsin football wins over the next two decades, the line would have topped off at about eight wins, and from time to time dipped back into the two- or three-win range. Sort of like Indiana.

But since then, the number of wins generated by the Wisconsin football program on an annual basis has generally been on the upswing. Everyone remembers the double digit-win seasons of 1993, 1998, 1999, 2005, and 2006. Badger football at its finest.

The point of this graph, however, is to remind everyone that while the Badgers have enjoyed an unprecedented run of success over the past two decades, every peak is followed by a valley.

The '93 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving '94 team and a '95 team that didn't go bowling. The '98-'99 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving 2000 team and an '01 team that didn't go bowling. The '06 12-win team was followed by an underachieving '07 team an '08 team that wouldn't have gone bowling if there weren't 845 bowl games in college football nowadays.

So we've been here before.

But wait! you say. This dropoff to near-.500 mediocrity was supposed to happen next year, after the Shaughnessys and Langfords and Levys and Chapmans and Urbiks and Kemps and Beckums have exhausted their eligibility. 2008 should have been great!

Alas, it wasn't, for a number of reasons that have been well-documented here and elsewhere. Add that to the massive losses on the offensive and defensive lines, and expectations for 2009 will be lower than any season since 2004, John Stocco's first year at quarterback. Like the current economic downturn, this latest slide looks different -- worse -- than previous recent downturns in Badger football. There is a very real possibility that 2009 will be a bowl-less season for Wisconsin. That would be disappointing, and would undoubtedly have even more Badger fans calling for Bret Bielema's dismissal.

I would argue that the most critical goal for 2009 is not chasing seven wins or some low-level bowl game, but correcting systemic problems that contributed to the declines of the past two seasons -- regardless of how it impacts 2009. If those are properly addressed, the future looks bright for 2010 and beyond. If not, Barry will be looking for a new coach around the time of my dad's 61st birthday.

Here's what we need to address:

Quarterback
This year's collapse began with subpar quarterback play. First Allan Evridge, then Dustin Sherer failed to play the position efficiently. Inaccurate passing, interceptions, sacks, and lost scrambling opportunities put the Badger offense and defense in difficult positions, and things snowballed from there.

To me, this is the downside to the diversity Paul Chryst has added to the attack. On the whole, Chryst has made the Wisconsin offense far more modern, explosive, unpredictable, and diverse -- in a word, better. In my opinion he is the best offensive coordinator we've ever had and is still the guy we need in that job. But when you don't have a quarterback capable of executing all these nuances, you struggle, as we did this year.

The '99 Rose Bowl was on the Big Ten Network again last week and I watched us run up 38 points on UCLA. There wasn't a lot of mystery to Brad Childress's offense -- hand off to Ron Dayne and Mike Samuel drop back a few times for deep balls to Chris Chambers.

By no means am I advocating a return to the Stone Age offense run by Chilly, and to an extent Brian White. What I am advocating is a shift of the offensive focus from the quarterback back to the tailback. It will always be easier for us to recruit a stud running back or two than it will be to recruit an above-average quarterback -- and history shows we can win without above-average quarterbacks.

If P.J. Hill returns next year, as he should, he and John Clay will be the perfect people to re-emphasize the tailback at the Midwest's version of Tailback U.

This year we averaged just 40.7 rushing attempts per game, the fewest since 1995. That has to change.

One more quarterback-related note: our best have been multiple-year starters. Bevell, Bollinger, Samuel, Stocco. This to me is why every effort should be made to prepare Curt Phillips to start, even if Sherer or Tolzien are better options for winning games in 2009. If there is any chance Phillips will be the guy during his time in Madison, he should be our starter next season.

Player development
We just graduated are very talented senior class, many of whom will find spots on NFL rosters this fall. As a group, though, they weren't highly-rated coming out of high school. They were solid prospects who developed into above-average college football players.

The distressing thing is most of their development came between their freshman and sophomore years, at the tail end of the Alvarez Era. Think about the guys: Shaughnessy, Beckum, Chapman, Levy, Casillas, Urbik, Kemp, VandenHeuvel, Langford, Ikegwuonu, Hodge. Of those guys, who was better as a junior or senior than he was as a sophomore? Langford and Kemp are the only clear-cut answers.

The other guys didn't necessarily regress, but they didn't take the next step toward all-conference performances that their first years starting indicated was possible.

This is troubling. Even though Bielema and his staff appear to be doing a good job recruiting, we will never consistently bring in classes like those of Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State. Never have, never will. And schools like Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois will also finish ahead of us in the recruiting rankings in any given year.

The advantage we always had under Alvarez and his staff was unmatched player development. They took those two- and three-star guys and made them into All-Big Ten players. Five-star guys like Joe Thomas became all-time greats.

I'm not seeing similar player development under this staff. Next year in particular, we'll need the wide receivers and defensive backs to take a big step forward, because they'll have more experience than our guys in the trenches. We're not going to trade for Regis Benn or sign Donvan Warren as a free agent, so this improvement is going to have to come from within. It's on the coaches (and the players) to make it happen.

Swagger
By swagger, I'm not talking about Brian Urlacher in an Old Spice commercial or Florida State running out to midfield and taunting the opponent. I'm talking about taking the field secure with the knowledge that you are better prepared both physically and mentally to beat your opponent.

The Badgers have lacked that these past two years. Sure, they've run around the field showing emotion, and said the right things in the press. But it's been superficial. Bluster and bravado are no substitute for genuine confidence and swagger, the kind of confidence and swagger you get from ...

Leaders
Reading yet another Badger football history book the other day brought back fond memories of the leaders this program has had in recent times. Chris McIntosh. Donnel Thompson. Joe Panos. Cecil Martin.

Recent Badger teams have lacked guys like this. Plenty of good players and guys who led by example, but few who set the tone in a way that everyone could see.

Leadership candidates for the next two transition years: Gabe Carimi, John Moffitt, Jay Valai. All three are well-spoken starters with charisma and all-conference ability. It's on them to bring the others along with them on the march back to the top.

Coaches
Sign of the times: my Fire Bret Bielema? post from earlier this fall is still the most-read post on this blog in the last 30 days. Here's my take on the coaching staff.

Bielema should not be replaced. He deserves five years to show what he can do, just as I think all college coaches deserve five years. If at that time the program still looks as it does today, he should be replaced.

We're not Notre Dame or Alabama, programs that can turn over coaches every three years if things aren't going as well as planned. Why? We don't have the money to pay for top available coaches (or buy out coaches' contracts) and we don't have the name recognition for recruiting to continue unimpeded in the face of staff turnover.

So what does Bielema have to show in the next two years?

Obviously he needs to be a better game manager. This year everything went wrong. Trying to score at the end of the first half against Penn State and Florida State backfired horribly. The defense was disorganized in critical situations. Chryst shouldn't be allowed to call options on third-and-1 ever again. The penalty he incurred against Michigan State, while petty on the ref's part, should not have happened.

In 2006 Bielema's aggressiveness drew raves, as we often scored at the end of the first half and stayed a step ahead of opponents. This year nothing worked. He needs to find that happy medium between his risk-taking sensibilities and Barry's conservative ones. You know that ridiculous play that resulted in Florida State's first touchdown would not have been called under Alvarez.

Also, as noted in the season review post, we were beaten soundly in the second half of our losses this year. We need to win the battle of the halftime adjustments darn near every time out.

Preparation also needs to improve dramatically. All the mental errors that drove us nuts this year don't just spring up on Saturday. They are stamped out on Wednesday and Thursday. We don't have the overwhelming talent to overcome those mistakes.

Finally, Bielema needs to take a close look at his staff. His first staff, with the likes of Bob Palcic and Mike Hankwitz, seemed to be a good blend of youth and experience. Now it's all youth. I'm not going to single out one particular position coach for criticism, because all the units had their good and bad moments this year. But that sort of inconsistency is not surprising when so many of the coaches are in their 30s.

What Bielema should do is bring in at least one older hand as an associate head coach, a Dan McCarney type. Perhaps he's been reluctant to do so because he's afraid it would challenge his authority as a young head coach. If so, he's got to get over it. He needs someone to talk him out of letting Evridge and Sherer throw from their own 10 with a minute left in the first half. He also needs a couple of guys whose forte is player development and not just recruiting.

Bielema's staff doesn't need to be a full-fledged team of rivals, but he needs to institute some checks and balances for this thing to work better.

And he needs to stop coaching special teams and find someone else who can.

Bielema can be the guy who leads us on a fourth upward slope. The question is whether or not he can work through these growing pains before Barry is forced by external conditions (ticket sales?) or his own gut to make a change.

As the offseason progresses I'll get into more detail about what I'd like to see happen in spring ball and the summer, and hopefully we'll finish strong on what is shaping up to be a nice recruiting class.

But for now I'll leave you with five keys to turning this thing around.

-De-emphasize the quarterback, re-emphasize the tailback

-Focus on player development

-Get that swagger back, legitimately

-Find the leaders who will insist on nothing less than success

-Evaluate the coaching staff, find a better mix

2008 in review: Glutton for punishment?

I was all set to write a long, fancy review of the 2008 season highlighted primarily by the frustrating turns, but then it hit me: I've already written them! All I had to do was go back and re-read the 12 game recaps from the regular season and pull the bullet points that best summed up this team.

God, was that depressing.

Even in victories, we showed fatal flaws. In losses, we showed only brief glimmers of promise.

Are you a glutton for punishment? Read on.

August 30 vs. Akron
My only thought ... is that I'm disappointed we left so many points on the board in the first half. It should have been 35-7 at halftime, not 17-10. Some guys have to tighten up their games.

We got away with this against Akron, but not against good teams.

September 6 vs. Marshall
What an atrocious start, absolutely embarrassing. ... Four penalties in the first six minutes. Failure by the defense to get off the field on third down. Little aggression or precision on offense.

Not the last time we heard those phrases ...

Didn't think we'd see John Clay again after his early fumble, but boy did he run well late. He's on his way to becoming the beast we've thought he could be.

Still think that ...

P.J. Hill's fumbles are starting to concern me, the first one more than the second. He's good enough to keep plays going with his feet and his drive, and that leads to him falling in awkward positions and leaving himself exposed to the types of hits like the one that caused the fumble.

Happened again against Florida State ...

September 13 vs. Fresno State
A disturbing trend in the second half was not running or throwing to receivers at first down yardage on third down.

That option that Evridge ran deep in Fresno territory was a curious call, although he ran it relatively effectively. But there was a holding call on it, not surprising.

Bringing in Clay when we did was a nice move, but why not keep feeding him the rock?

Like my friend said in November, Paul Chryst had a bad year ...

September 27 vs. Michigan
Run the ball every play in the second half. I'm serious. Without Beckum and Graham in there, Kyle Jefferson is the only primary receiver with dependable hands. Lance Kendricks, Nick Toon, and David Gilreath have all dropped decent passes thus far, with varying degrees of costliness. Allan Evridge has been serviceable, but few of the passing plays have looked smooth.

Few would all year long.

On one third-and-1 call we ran a terrible-looking play action pass. Run the ball behind our enormous line! Like the play call that Johnny Clay took down the the 5 -- that's a great call, well executed.

How many third-and-ones did we fail to convert? The one that really sticks in my craw is the option left where Evridge made a terrible pitch to P.J. Hill and we lost five yards on the play. Can you remember any time when we've run the option successfully on third-and-one? Or at any down and distance, for that matter? Me neither. So STOP RUNNING THE OPTION ON THIRD-AND-ONE, PAUL!

See above.

Then, after playing reasonably well but getting burned by his receivers, Evridge went scattershot. Inaccurate throws. Holding onto the ball too long. Not securing the ball under pressure. I was not ready to call quarterback play an Achilles' Heel for this team, but it is, big time.

Quarterback play killed us, and everything unraveled from there.

October 4 vs. Ohio State
The second half seemed to go by really fast, didn't it? It wasn't as decisive as in the loss at Michigan, but we were clearly outplayed in the second half again. That's three straight weeks, a disturbing trend.

This year's Badgers got thoroughly outplayed in the second half in all of their losses, all but one of them against good teams. Against bad teams we owned the second half, but that's not good enough. That has to change.

It was distressing that Pryor beat us on the final drive with his passing. ... OSU's receivers were wide open, even though we appeared to be dropping six or seven guys into coverage.

Happened again versus Florida State against another average passing quarterback.

Replays showed clearly how disorganized our defense was on Pryor's winning touchdown run. There's that leadership thing again -- get the guys lined up properly, or someone call a timeout and make sure everything is in order. (Burning two timeouts in the first 7:23 of the second half didn't help, either.)

Coaching, coaching, coaching.

October 11 vs. Penn State
Penn State is indeed a good team, but there's no reason we shouldn't be right there with them. But the Badgers continue to get burned by the little things.

And would continue to be burned by little things.

We've called out Allan Evridge and P.J. Hill, but how about Travis Beckum? ... He's still putting up good numbers when completely healthy, but he's not playing an all-around game.

A disappointing senior season for Travis, hopefully he goes on to a terrific professional career.

... on second-and-goal from the 1, we get called for 12 men in the huddle. Yeesh.

... it's third-and-20 for Penn State and we have them pinned deep in their own end, and Daryll Clark throws for 21 yards on the run, great pass and route. Another instance of not closing the deal.

Sort of like Carr's third-and-19 catch for 20 yards against FSU.

October 18 vs. Iowa
Watching the postgame on the Big Ten Network, I saw Bret Bielema's press conference. At one point he ended a sentence with "The team that's beating Wisconsin the most is Wisconsin."

Good call, dude.

Forget getting into the backfield and recording tackles for loss. These (defensive linemen) were getting dominated at the point of attack, putting all the pressure on our defensive backs to make saving tackles.

On Greene's second touchdown run, he broke about 73 tackles. ...

Actually, defensive line play and tackling were not chronic problems for this team, in my opinion.

October 25 vs. Illinois
Credit Mr. Man for pointing out that our defense is actually better built for stopping (the Spread) than we've been in the past ...

Too bad non-Spread teams gashed us.

Allen Langford ... had an Al Harris-type day in coverage. By that I mean he was consistently straddling the line between tight coverage and interference, and thank god those judgments went our way today.

Love Langford, gonna miss him.

Jay Valai ... set a physical tone with hits belying his 5-9 frame.

Love Valai, glad he's coming back.

Nice to see Garrett Graham get so heavily involved in the offense in the second half. If Beckum's out, Graham isn't a bad guy to have as a go-to receiver, even if it is for just 6-7 yards a pop.

Sherer's success next year starts with Graham.

Is it time yet to call for Bielema to give up coaching the special teams? Two weeks ago we give up a punt return touchdown. Last week a punt is blocked. Today Benn has a long kickoff return that leads to a field goal, and a penalty for lining up wrong on a punt. Time to let someone else worry about that.

Expect to hear this drum beat loudly in the offseason.

November 1 vs. Michigan State
I don't even know what to say. Seriously. This week after week of getting kicked in the balls by one thing after another is really starting to have a residual effect on my psyche.

Leinenkugel's dulls the pain of getting kicked in the balls repeatedly.

Mental errors have once again led to points by the opponent. The play call misunderstanding leads to Sherer's fumble which leads to a field goal. Levy's face mask leads to another field goal. This team just doesn't have the margin for error to be making those mistakes.

As heard on the Champs Sports Bowl postgame.

P.J. and Clay have had some nice runs, created by some nice blocking, but we still can't seem to get into a rhythm running the ball. What's it going to take? We need the run more than ever, especially considering our quarterback with, as Bentley accurately put it, a "bizarre throwing motion."

A running game rhythm is Job One for 2009. More on that later.

We ice the game with a rare third-and-1 conversion ... and a hold on Moffitt.

Why in the hell did Bielema call timeout when State was setting up for that last-second field goal? ... Maybe if he hadn't wasted our third timeout with that foolish challenge earlier in the half he could have called a third straight timeout.

November 8 vs. Indiana
So our offensive line, which was healthy last week finally, got two whole plays in today before Eric Vanden Heuvel was hurt. Turned out it didn't matter, but wouldn't it be nice if we were just at full strength for once?

They played pretty well together when all give guys were healthy.

November 15 vs. Minnesota
(At halftime, written in a Camp Randall bathroom) Nightmare: Only word to describe this latest fiasco. The lowlight is the Minnesota fan two rows behind us, in section R, row 40, seat 2, celebrating wildly Kyle Jefferson's injury. Here comes the ambulance ... Metaphor for the season.

I hope that guy is rotting in hell somewhere. It seemed like Kyle played against Florida State.

Can you ever remember a receiver having a career game that included three drops, including one for a sure-fire touchdown? Good for Isaac Anderson for shaking off the dropsies ...

When Niles Brinkley intercepted that pass on Minnesota's last possession and started running around, did anyone not think that, given the way this season has gone, he was going to fumble and the Gophers were going to drive down the field and either tie it or win it?

How about a rundown of some of the head-scratching mistakes we made? Clay's fumble. Shane Carter's offside penalty on the Gophers' two-point conversion (come on man, think!). Dustin Sherer taking that sack when he was out of the pocket with a clear lane to throw the ball into the stands! The blown coverages that led to Minnesota's second and third touchdowns. Allowing that fourth-and-18 conversion. Blowing more third-and-shorts. The botched field goal attempt that would have put us up 10-0.

November 22 vs. Cal Poly
What were you thinking when O'Brien Schofield jumped offside on that field goal attempt, which allowed Poly to convert on fourth-and-1 and eventually score a touchdown? Or when Nick Toon couldn't haul in that nice pass from Sherer later in the fourth quarter?

Recapping the stats

Way back on September 22, I wrote this post:

Now that I've numbed you all to sleep with four days of numbers — hey, wake up! — I'm going to tie it all up with the statistical thresholds I believe the Badgers need to hit for 2008 to be a great season.

OFFENSE
50 rushing attempts per game
245 rushing yards per game (4.9 yards per carry)
47% third-down conversion percentage
1.2 turnovers per game
30 points per game

DEFENSE
35 rushing attempts per game
120 rushing yards per game (3.4 yards per carry)
215 passing yards per game
37% third-down allowance percentage
2.5 turnovers per game
16 points per game

If time permits, I'll compare each week's performance to these standards, and hopefully keep a running total on how we're doing. Of course, if we lose three of our next four, I'll start writing about recruiting and whether Dustin Sherer or Curt Phillips will be starting at quarterback in 2009.

We all know what happened -- lost the next four, talking about Dustin Sherer replacing Allan Evridge, and whether or not Curt Phillips can take the job next season. Sigh.

But how did the Badgers do in these stat categories? Let's see how it stacks up against my prescription for success.

OFFENSE
44 rushing attempts per game - low
212 rushing yards per game (4.8 yards per carry) - low
39% third-down conversion percentage - low
2.25 turnovers per game - high -- double!
28.7 points per game - close

DEFENSE
34.3 rushing attempts per game - close
133.2 rushing yards per game (3.9 yards per carry) - high
189.1 passing yards per game - low
38% third-down allowance percentage - close
1.8 turnovers per game - low
25.2 points per game - way high

So, as if it wasn't going to be painfully obvious, the Badgers fell short of greatness in just about every key statistical category this season. Turnovers were the biggest problem -- 16 lost fumbles, 25 overall!

What we ended up with was a slightly-better-than-average team with no wins over good teams. Here's hoping for more next year.

UW-Penn State thoughts

What happened in the second half? I was washing Charlie's bottles and flossing.

Actually, I managed to catch it all, and there's not much to say. This is a team with a broken will. The losses to Michigan and Ohio State were just emotional crushers, and the several times we had glimmers of hope tonight we immediately responded with horrible plays.

We can talk about players and play calling and other stuff, but this is on Bret Bielema to turn this thing around. This team's psyche needs rebuilding, one play at a time, before what started as a season with high expectations turns into an all-time disaster.

More big picture thoughts to come in the week ahead, but here's some thoughts on tonight's mess at Camp Randall.

-Good thing we pushed that Virginia Tech game back a decade, eh? Wouldn't want to endure that tough game and then start Big Ten play 0-3.

-Silver lining: tickets for that Minnesota game November 15 ought to be more affordable, unless the Gopher bandwagon gains its first members after their win today against Illinois.

-We've called out Allan Evridge and P.J. Hill, but how about Travis Beckum? First, he sits out most of the Michigan game, choosing to insert himself into the game after momentum had swung too far, then messes up the two-point conversion. Starting tonight's game, he whiffs on a block on third-and-one on the first drive, setting P.J. up for a loss, and our half of bad field position commences. Then a drive or two later he goes offside. This is the kind of crap that doesn't happen with good teams. He's still putting up good numbers when completely healthy, but he's not playing an all-around game.

-Liked that we came out running the ball, seven straight plays to start the game. It got us into manageable down and distance situations, but we just couldn't convert.

-Evridge started running, which is a skill he was supposed to have coming here from Kansas State but haven't seen so far, and made some plays. The touchdown run was impressive.

Yet also on that drive, on second-and-goal from the 1, we get called for 12 men in the huddle. Yeesh.

-The Evridge follows up that very positive drive with another fumble. Then he almost throws a pick on yet another batted ball on the next drive. It was the right move to get him out of there and replace him with Dustin Sherer.

-That said, I wasn't impressed with Sherer at all. Lucas and LePay, who somehow named him player of the game, are talking right now about how they think he earned more playing time going forward, and when asked, Bielema seemed to agree. What I saw was two good passes coming off the bench (one more than Evridge threw), then a variety of scattershot throws against a soft prevent defense.

Sherer's mechanics were subpar, although some of that might be attributable to the steady pass rush he faced. His feet were seldom set optimally, and his arm slot appeared different from throw to throw. His passes lacked zip and were not particularly accurate. He is slower than Evridge.

In my mind, for all his flaws, Evridge is still clearly the quarterback that gives Wisconsin the best chance to win this season. Which is frightening.

-Here's another little thing: on some play in the second half two Penn State defensive linemen jump the snap count and are in the backfield, yet John Moffitt doesn't snap the ball, and allows them to get back after what seems like an eternity.

-Another killer: it's third-and-20 for Penn State and we have them pinned deep in their own end, and Daryll Clark throws for 21 yards on the run, great pass and route. Another instance of not closing the deal.

-Here's another small thing: David Gilreath calls for a fair catch on his own 6. Everyone knows you just don't do that. He did just about nothing with ample return chances.

-The box score shows we had eight penalties for 74 yards, but it seemed like twice that much.

-After the first of Sherer's interceptions (that one that was overturned was a bad call by the replay guy) Moffitt got laid out by Aaron Maybin. It reminded me of Chad Clifton getting annihilated by Warren Sapp in a game at Tampa a few years ago. Thankfully Moffitt appeared OK. With Carimi out and Urbik hurt (hopefully not too badly), offensive line depth is now a concern.

-Did you notice Chris Maragos started at free safety for Shane Carter tonight?

-Penn State was much better than I thought. They are legitimate national title contenders and might not lose in Big Ten play. Clark is really impressive, and he is surrounded by guys who make plays and a good line. Same thing goes for Maybin and their defense. Just think how good they'd be if Sean Lee hadn't hurt his knee.

Too bad the game was so bland that the second half turned into one long tribute to Joe Paterno and Penn State football. Can't blame Mike Patrick and Todd Blackledge, they can only talk about the Scrambler at Mickies Dairy Bar and the fried Icelandic cod at the Avenue Bar for so long before getting back to "Sherer's pass to Graham sails high."

At least Iowa ... even next week's game looks tough now. Let's see what Bielema has up his sleeve.

UW-Penn State halftime thoughts

Just when Allan Evridge was showing signs of turning things around ... it's back to business as usual, which means no chance of beating Penn State.

I'm at a loss here. The defense isn't playing poorly at all, but Brad Nortman's punts, our non-existent blocking on returns, and in ability to convert on second- and third-and-short situations is just killing us.

Penn State is indeed a good team, but there's no reason we shouldn't be right there with them. But the Badgers continue to get burned by the little things.

Hopefully we can make it competitive in the second half.

How does Evridge compare?

Following the Ohio State loss there was grumbling about Allan Evridge's play, perhaps made more raw by his game-ending interception thrown back across his body right to a Buckeye defender. Edward opined that this is the worst quarterback play we've gotten since Mike Samuel.

Knee-jerk, I agreed with him. But, because I'm a nerd, I decided to check the numbers and see just how his performance compares to the Badgers' starting quarterbacks of the last 16 seasons. Let me roll them out there, then tell me what you think.

Quarterback rating: Average - 130.6, Evridge - 125.4 (Note: I couldn't find Brooks Bollinger's 1999 rating anywhere, and he only threw 140 passes that season)

Completion percentage: Average - 57.8%, Evridge - 56.6%

Yards per completion: Average - 13.2, Evridge - 13.1

Touchdowns: Average - 12, Evridge (projected) - 13

Interceptions: Average - 7.6, Evridge (projected) - 10

Attempts per interception: Average - 31.8, Evridge - 30.5

Seems like if anything, Evridge is negligibly below average in most of these categories. Now let's see where Evridge ranks among the other 15 starting quarterbacks' seasons in key statistical categories. Average would be eighth or ninth in these rankings.

Quarterback rating: Best - 1993 Darrell Bevell, 155.2, Worst - 2004 John Stocco, 109.8, Evridge - ninth, 125.4

Completion percentage: Best - 1993 Darrell Bevell, 67.8%, Worst - 2001 Brooks Bollinger, 51.4%, Evridge - 11th, 55% (Note: Bevell holds the top three spots on this list, Bollinger three of the lowest five — and he's the one who's had an NFL playing career!)

Yards per completion: Best - 2003 Jim Sorgi, 16.1 (thank you Lee Evans!), Worst - 1994 Darrell Bevell, 11.1 (that's why he was so accurate), Evridge - 10th, 13.1

Yards per game: Best - 2005 John Stocco, 224.6, Worst - 1998 Mike Samuel, 97.9 (how does a team go to the Rose Bowl throwing for less than 100 yards per game?), Evridge - seventh, 179.8

Touchdowns: Best - 2005 John Stocco, 21, Worst - 1998 Mike Samuel/1999 Brooks Bollinger, 6, Evridge - ninth, 13 (projected)

Interceptions: Best - 1998 Mike Samuel/2001 and 2002 Brooks Bollinger, 4, Worst - 1997 Mike Samuel, 13 (maybe that's why he threw 82 fewer passes the next year), Evridge - sixth, 10 (projected)

Attempts per interception: Best - 1999 Brooks Bollinger, 70, Worst - 1997 Mike Samuel, 19.5, Evridge - eighth, 30.5

Here again, Evridge's numbers are average or slightly below average. So from a strictly statistical standpoint, Evridge really isn't horrible, he's middle of the road for Badger quarterbacks in the last 16 seasons. That would be OK if expectations were for this to be a middle of the road Wisconsin team. This had a chance to be a really good one, but mediocre quarterback play has been one of the factors why it is now staring down a .500 record halfway through the regular season.

UW-Ohio State thoughts

Well, that was disappointing, wasn't it? Looks like we're quickly fading from Big Ten title contender to afterthought. Motor City Bowl, here we come.

The second half seemed to go by really fast, didn't it? It wasn't as decisive as in the loss at Michigan, but we were clearly outplayed in the second half again. That's three straight weeks, a disturbing trend.

-I liked seeing P.J. and Clay in the backfield at the same time, but can we give up on the pass in the flat to Hill? First Evridge bounces one, then P.J. can't handle a relative gimme.

-My guess is a lot of fans are going to be clamoring for Clay to be the starter after tonight's performance. I'm not ready to, but it's close. P.J. didn't run badly at all tonight, and his touchdown run, where he drove Ross Homan into the end zone, was a man's run. But things seem to pop more when Clay gets the carry. As Mike Patrick pointed out, he hits the hole faster than Hill.

-A key play early in the second half that killed momentum was Isaac Anderson's drop of a perfectly good Evridge pass. Didn't seem like a huge deal, but it cost us the chance to go up two scores and put more pressure on Pryor.

-Shane Carter was very tentative on Wells' big runs. It almost seems like because he got burned taking bad angles so often last season, he's trying to play things more cautiously this year -- and against good backs like Wells, the result is the same.

-That guy at Mickies Dairy Bar was reading the Herald, not the Cardinal -- that doesn't reflect reality, does it? ;)

-It was distressing that Pryor beat us on the final drive with his passing. He looked like he was shot putting the ball back there. Not sure if that's how he normally throws or if it was the hand injury, but it was ugly; got the job done, though. OSU's receivers were wide open, even though we appeared to be dropping six or seven guys into coverage.

-A key field position exchange came late in the third quarter, when Ohio State's A.J. Trapasso outpunted our Brad Nortman by about 20 yards. That negated a nice job our defense had done stopping them deep, and gave the Buckeyes a short field to drive for a field goal.

-Replays showed clearly how disorganized our defense was on Pryor's winning touchdown run. There's that leadership thing again -- get the guys lined up properly, or someone call a timeout and make sure everything is in order. (Burning two timeouts in the first 7:23 of the second half didn't help, either.)

Ohio State may win out and return to the national championship game (and the nation cringes), but there's really nothing special about this team yet. Just like there's nothing special about ours.

In a way, losing last week at Michigan makes this one easier to stomach (finally, a silver lining!). Maybe eased of the burden of great expectations, the Badgers will play loose and go on a run. Or maybe they go into a tailspin and this program is doing some soul searching this offseason. Right now it could go either way.

UW-Ohio State halftime thoughts

This has been a tough first half to watch, not necessarily because of the action, but because I've been switching back and forth between the Badger and Brewer games. Thank goodness for DVR.

After a shaky start, we've outplayed Ohio State thus far, and it's nice for that to be reflected in the halftime score. We've been more physical, gotten a number of players involved in offense, and Evridge has gradually played better. Keep it up and we've got a shot to win this one.

-Quote of the first half, upon seeing Ohio State's long-maned tight end Jake Ballard: "Look Daddy, I saw a girl on the field!" Good thing he didn't see Aubrey Pleasant.

-Ohio State's offensive line really blocked Beanie Wells' touchdown run well. Freshman center Michael Brewster engulfed Jonathan Casillas to create the key lane.

-Terrelle Pryor just eats up yardage when he runs, it seems like it takes him about three steps to cover 10 yards. We've done a nice job containing that part of his game, though. The key is to approach him under control and not running full speed, because he's shifty enough to sidestep that.

-If I were callings plays for Ohio State I'd run Wells every play until we stop him three in a row. Ten rushes in a half in a game like this isn't enough for that guy.

-Terrific play by Allen Langford on the pick. Pryor threw a bad ball, but Langford stayed right with the receiver and did a great job boxing out.

-You might expect this, but I love how Camp Randall looks at night. It just screams Big Game. If anyone reading this went to the game, please comment on how the crowd was, and why. On the broadcast Mike Patrick commented that the crowd seemed quiet, and wondered whether it was because of the band's absence.

-After two passes Mickey Turner's way I wrote "Why are we passing to Turner so much?" Especially one third down, where Evridge tried to squeeze a tough pass to Mickey when Travis Beckum was wide open. But Evridge and Turner both made nice plays on the touchdown later in the half.

-Look out if you're sitting in the front row, Jay Valai is hitting everything in sight tonight. His first big hit came on an Ohio State third down attempt, when he blew up the blocker -- when he should have attacked the receiver right next to him. But he laid a great lick on Dan Herron (hopefully he's okay) and later on Dane Sanzenbacher (ditto). He needs to be more consistently under control, but his reckless abandon feels right tonight.

-Dave Doeren has made some nice blitz calls, especially the one where Deandre Levy and Mike Newkirk got through to sack Pryor. The Buckeyes blocked Valai but let those two dudes come through untouched -- bad decision.

-I thought I saw Dustin Scherer warming up before the 91-yard touchdown drive, and thought him replacing Evridge at that point would be a good move. But Evridge stayed in and responded with a great drive.

-So Josh Oglesby's under the gun tonight, replacing Gabe Carimi. Heckuva time to make your debut at left tackle. Guess this means Jake Bscherer is definitely redshirting this season.

-Think we can put that David Gilreath end-around on the shelf for the rest of the night. It was fun while it lasted.

-That touchdown drive -- 91 yards, 8:16 -- was the best of the year, bar none. Terrific play calling, good running, timely passing when needed.

-John Clay looks good again. He always seems to be moving forward, even when he's dancing and waiting for a hole to develop. Sometimes P.J. seems like he stops in those situations, although he's had some solid runs as well.

-Another great hit: Billy Rentmeester runs over Brian Hartline on punt coverage. Love the way we're hitting.

-Evridge's best pass of the night came late to Kyle Jefferson to set up that field goal. Maybe if everyone's keying on Beckum that will be open again once or twice in the second half. OSU's got good DBs, though, wouldn't count on it.

Hopefully in 90 minutes we'll be basking in the glow of dual big wins by the home teams.

Sunday morning thoughts

Tell you what: having kids makes getting over a tough loss so much easier. As Saturday's game disintegrated around the Badgers, Charlie just kept right on smiling and cooing, and it's hard not to feel good when you see that. After writing my sour grapes blog post, I brought up Star Wars Episode II, which Will and I watched and which he thoroughly enjoyed.

Tell you what else: the stench of losing to a Michigan team that bad smell still lingers after a night of sleep.

-The Badgers' second half offense only showed signs of life once Travis Beckum entered the game. He looked fine moving around. So why wasn't he in before momentum had already swung completely in Michigan's favor? Sounds like he might have been ready to go earlier but didn't ask in until the game was slipping away, when he told Bielema he was 100% -- think you could have made that clear earlier? Beckum and Graham are the only two legit playmakers on offense right now, and without them, trying to score touchdowns is like a baseball team trying to score 10 runs with walks, sac bunts, and singles -- it takes a long time and is very hard to do.

-John Clay was responsible for our two best offensive plays of the day. So why did he have only three carries total? After the game Bielema told the radio guys that the game situation didn't allow him to get back in. What, Clay wasn't capable of contributing to three-and-outs like the rest of the guys were for most of the second half?

-Did we really hold a 36:04-23:56 edge in time of possession? Because it seemed like they had the ball the entire second half.

-Trying to decide who deserves more blame for the pick six that gave Michigan the lead, Evridge or Jefferson. Technically, Jefferson dropped it, but Evridge did seem to throw it too hard into a tight spot where Kyle was about to get drilled. Does it really matter?

-We wasted really good games by Jonathan Casillas (eight tackles, tackle for loss, interception) and the defensive line, namely O'Brien Schofield, Matt Shaughnessy and Mike Newkirk. They were around the ball making plays all days, just ran out of gas at the end.

Apparently the roughing the passer call that led to Michigan's second touchdown was on Shaughnessy. It reminds me of my eighth grade year at Cabrini, when we lost to Badger White. Late in the game we get a fourth down stop when the referee, Al Carrier, flags us for a late hit on the quarterback. "Who's it on?" we asked him. "You know who it's on," was his reply. Badger White ended up scoring on the drive and winning, and went on to a 5-0 season. We finished 0-5.

-Watching Michigan's spoiled, arrogant fans rejoice made me sick to my stomach. Does any other group of fans less deserve to experience success than them? (Ask me tomorrow if the Cubs knock the Brewers out of the playoffs.)

-To that end, Michael Phelps fit right in with all the other poseurs wearing maize and blue Saturday. He may be an Olympic hero and an amazing athlete, but wearing his hat backward and those sunglasses, he looked like a major league gomer Saturday.

-They might be young, but Michigan's offense doesn't even look promising. As stated earlier, Threet is terrible. None of the backs looked even average, not even McGuffie. The receivers might have been getting open, but who knows, given Threet's throws were usually nowhere near them. Our defensive line lived on the other side of their offensive line in the first half.

-We blew a chance to make a big move up in the polls, with USC, Georgia, and Florida losing. You can argue they're irrelevant, but I maintain they're a weekly reminder to the nation of who's who in college football, and we won't be part of that top 10 next week. Pollsters have to be just licking their chops, waiting to drop us, like when we fell from #5 to #19 after losing by five at Illinois last year.

-If the Packers and Brewers lose today, this could be the all-time worst weekend in Wisconsin sports history.

UW-Michigan thoughts ... are you kidding me?

You know what? I'm not sure that we will ever win a game in Ann Arbor, ever again.

Because that is a really bad Michigan team we just handed the game to. Maybe the worst in a generation, while we allegedly had a top 10 team. What a pathetic performance.

This one's on the Badger offense, no doubt. Dropped passes. Poor quarterback play. Questionable play calling. Blatant execution errors.

This one stings, a lot. Like sitting on a bee in your swimsuit. My guess is that this is karma's way of paying me back for gloating about every Michigan loss to such an extent. Hell, I even had the Badger shirt I was going to buy for Uncle John all picked out, and was looking for his address. Premature.

-Before getting into the segment of this post where I blame our guys, let me touch on this one first: did anyone see the roughing the passer penalty that kept the drive that led to Michigan's second touchdown alive? All I know is Steven Threet, who is just a terrible quarterback, threw a good pass that a Michigan receiver predictably dropped, and 20 seconds later there's a flag on the field and the drive is still alive. No one really talks about it. Michigan scores, Allan Evridge coughs up a pick six, and the rest is history. I would really like to know if that roughing the passer call was legit or not.

-Regardless, it should never have come down to a call, that one or the illegal man downfield call on the two-point conversion, which seems to have been a good call, with Travis Beckum lining up incorrectly. This is the sort of thing that always seems to go Michigan's way ..

How many drops did the receivers have today? Lance Kendricks had at least three, and the wideouts had three or four.

-Then, after playing reasonably well but getting burned by his receivers, Evridge went scattershot. Inaccurate throws. Holding onto the ball too long. Not securing the ball under pressure. I was not ready to call quarterback play an Achilles' Heel for this team, but it is, big time. He did make a couple really nice passes on the last drive, a big first down pass to Kendricks (great catch) and the touchdown pass to David Gilreath (another great catch).

-Even before Evridge went sour, we should have put them away. Time after time we failed to capitalize on good field position that Michigan handed us. It should have been 22-0 or 26-0 before Michigan got its pathetic offense in gear.

-How many third-and-ones did we fail to convert? The one that really sticks in my craw is the option left where Evridge made a terrible pitch to P.J. Hill and we lost five yards on the play. Can you remember any time when we've run the option successfully on third-and-one? Or at any down and distance, for that matter? Me neither. So STOP RUNNING THE OPTION ON THIRD-AND-ONE, PAUL! (That's been building in my for about 90 minutes.)

-All that poor offense in the second half fatigued our defense. No way Michigan scores those last two touchdowns against a fresh defense, not after the way we dominated the first half.

-I just can't get over how bad Michigan is ... so what does that say about us? Here I am talking for the last two weeks about what it takes for this UW team to be great. How about winning when the opposing quarterback goes 12-for-32 for 97 yards? Or when the other team turns the ball over five times in a half? What a lost opportunity.

Best case, I suppose, is this season turns into 1998 or 1999, where Michigan is our only Big Ten loss. That's sort of hard to picture right now, though.

At least the Brewers ... oh, right, they laid a big egg today too.

UW-Michigan halftime thoughts

Boy, I sure am good at these keys to the game, eh? Get Beckum involved early, then Graham? Good call. We can't count on them turning the ball over a lot? Uh-huh.

At least I got the run off-tackle thing kind of right.

This is a strange feeling, being up 19-0 at halftime in Ann Arbor and feeling like it should be about 28-0.

-Good first half for the kickers. Philip Welch rebounded nicely from missing his opening bunny with four good-looking field goals. And we know he can make a 50-plus yarder. And Brad Nortman has punted well, too.

-Run the ball every play in the second half. I'm serious. Without Beckum and Graham in there, Kyle Jefferson is the only primary receiver with dependable hands. Lance Kendricks, Nick Toon, and David Gilreath have all dropped decent passes thus far, with varying degrees of costliness. Allan Evridge has been serviceable, but few of the passing plays have looked smooth. Credit Michigan's defense for making things uncomfortable.

-The UW coaching staff did a nice job hiding the injuries to Beckum and Graham, didn't they? I didn't even know Garrett got hurt at Fresno.

-Of Michigan's five turnovers, none could definitively be placed in the "forced" category. There's good hits and good pressure/coverage, but it's not like we're hitting the ball with our helmets and blanketing receivers.

-One of my favorite non-turnover plays from Michigan in the first half was early on when Wolverine tackle Steve Schilling tackled Sam McGuffie, his teammate, for a loss. Classic.

-Coming into the game, 44% of Michigan's offensive plays have gone for zero or negative yards. That's insane.

-Love the fake punt, can't believe Michigan bit on it. I mean, were we really going to punt on fourth-and-1 from the 34?

-Hey WAC -- that's how instant replay is used properly! I thought Mickey Turner's fumble recovery may have occurred with his foot out of bounds, but it seems the camera angle thankfully didn't capture that part of his body.

-On one third-and-1 call we ran a terrible-looking play action pass. Run the ball behind our enormous line! Like the play call that Johnny Clay took down the the 5 -- that's a great call, well executed. Clay really seemed to slow down at the end of that long run, and his touchdown run; I'd have to imagine in a year or two he won't get caught on runs like that.

-Best quote of the half, from the usually clueless Paul McGuire, about the Big House crowd: "There never is much noise in here anyway, but there is no noise now."

Hold onto the ball, stay with the run, do roughly the same thing defensively, and this one should turn out all right for us.

Keys to greatness: Offense

OK, here goes. Let's take a look first at the offense. We're going to lay it out like this: Stat category, 15-year average, great team (1993, 1998, 1999) average, 2008 average thus far.

Rushing attempts per game: 45.6, 51.1, 47.3
5.5 rushes per game may not seem like that big a difference between average and great, but over the course of a 12-game season that's a lot of time of possession, and considerably less exposure to turnovers.

Rushing yards per game: 199.1, 247.4, 238.7
No surprise here, either, given the previous stat. But 48 yards per game is a huge disparity between average and great. Our 2008 offensive line and backs show the potential to near that great number.

Passing yards per game: 181.7, 153.3, 184.7
This surprised me a little. I thought the great number would be less than average, but not by 28 yards. Consider that one of the three great teams was quarterbacked by Mike Samuel and this makes more sense. Still, makes you feel okay about Allan Evridge behind center.

First downs per game: 20.1, 21.1, 23
Nothing much to look at here.

Third-down conversion percentage: 43.6%, 48.1%, 44%
The great-to-average disparity is significant here, 10% different. That's a couple more drives kept alive per game, improves field position, keeps the defense off the field, etc.

Turnovers per game: 1.6, 1.1, 1.3
Also very significant. Over a 12-game season that's six less turnovers.

Penalty yards per game: 41.6, 40.2, 39.0
Surprised by this one, thought that the great teams would be far less penalized than average.

Points per game: 27.8, 31.8, 34.0
Of the three great teams, 1993 surprisingly averaged the fewest points per game — 29.5 ppg. It's not a stretch to see this year's team averaging more than 27.8 ppg.

The takeaway: run the ball, don't turn it over, don't get forced into throwing the ball.

The 2008 stats thus far have to be taken with a grain of salt, given the quality of our first two non-conference opponents. But the trend is encouraging.

UW-Fresno State thoughts ... yeaaaaaaah!

Charlie is set to be baptized in about 10 hours, and that's probably what I'll remember about this weekend for the rest of my life, but ...

What a great win! Billy Rentmeester with the save!

We beat a really good team in front of their hostile crowd in THE BIGGEST GAME IN SCHOOL HISTORY! So Fresno State fans can take all those cute little T-shirts they had made up for the game and use them to clean the kitchen next week.

I'll be honest: for the last hour in my head I've been writing, in my head, a rant about the preposterous overturned fumble call. More on that later. But now, thankfully, I'll focus on the positive, with an emphasis on the second half.

-Did you notice how we switched things up on kickoffs? In the last one of the first half it only went to about the 25, fielded by Fresno's up back. In the first kickoff of the second half, Fresno's returners moved up and Philip Welch kicked it into the end zone. Maybe this is how we have to do things without Taylor Mehlhaff's big leg.

-Did you notice how on several plays Chris Pressley started out split wide, then moved back to his customary fullback spot? Who are we trying to kid with that initial formation? He ain't going anywhere on a passing route lined up out there.

-On Devon Wylie's touchdown the announcers harped on Casillas for missing a tackle, but I thought Jay Valai's was worse. But Valai played a good game overall — Bear never got off, and Jay made some nice plays around the line of scrimmage. Any game in which I'm not making many notes about the secondary is a good game.

-Everyone will be raving about Fresno blocking another punt, but that one was on Brad Nortman dropping the snap, which was fine. He catches it cleanly, they don't block it. The defense made a great stand after the blocked punt.

-Did you hear ESPN2's Joe Tessitore's orgasm after that blocked punt? Embarrassing.

-Kraig Urbik was offside twice in the second half, and I thought we were dangerously close to completely losing our composure, but we kept it just enough to persevere.

-A disturbing trend in the second half was not running or throwing to receivers at first down yardage on third down.

-That punt that bounced into their blocker was the big break we needed to get over the hump in the second half. Rod Gilmore's comment afterward was classic: "That play is essentially a turnover." You think?

-That option that Evridge ran deep in Fresno territory was a curious call, although he ran it relatively effectively. But there was a holding call on it, not surprising.

-Bringing in Clay when we did was a nice move, but why not keep feeding him the rock? He ran well in his limited chances. A tough 112 yards for P.J. as well, he ran with authority behind some stubborn blocking.

-When Wylie fumbled, you could hear palpable disappointment in Tessitore's voice. I then wrote down "Really stupid challenge by Pat Hill." Who knew.

You know why teams don't want to play you at Fresno, Pat? It's because of refereeing like that overturned fumble. That was so clearly a fumble it was not even close. All three announcers certainly thought so, as would any impartial viewer. Unless you can get neutral-conference officials for a matchup like this, you run the risk of officiating deciding the outcome.

Which it almost did tonight. Not only did Fresno get three points, but we were deprived of the ball deep in their territory. Then, we clipped on the ensuring kickoff return, putting us in bad field position.

After Fresno kicked the field goal, Tessitore said, disappointedly, like his dog has rabies: "And Wisconsin holds."

BCS teams ought to think long and hard before scheduling games either at WAC schools or using WAC officials.

Tessitore: "Finally a home game break for Pat Hill!" Hooray for horrible officiating!

Thankfully that's the end of my rant, rather than my entire game recap.

-Evridge and Kyle Jefferson were not on the same page tonight. Allan looked Kyle's way several times but they never came close to a completion. It would be nice to have KJ's deep play threat going into Big Ten play.

-Won't say much about Evridge's cramping until I hear more about it. But what about Jae McFadden's club on his right hand? What was that about? He wasn't in on as many tackles as he has been the first two weeks, wonder if that was a factor.

-What a great punt by Fresno to pin us deep late.

-But what a time for Billy Rentmeester to have the biggest run of his career! It was certainly unexpected, but the type of contribution that can turn a good season into a great season.

I'm exhausted, and will be up with Charlie soon for a middle of the night feeding, so I'd better wrap it up. But again, great win, and I'd like to think this keeps us in the top 10 for at least two more weeks. More to come Sunday.

UW-Fresno State halftime thoughts

Can't believe I'd be this happy with a 10-0 halftime lead. But we played a nice first half. Took their fired-up crowd out of the game early, which has been important. Offensive line is blocking well, defensive line has made a lot of plays.

-On the first (and only thus far) three-and-out drive, Allan Evridge locked onto Travis Beckum on third down and forced a tough pass into a tight spot for an incompletion. I was afraid he'd do that, but Evridge has spread the ball around well since.

-Niles Brinkley started at cornerback opposite Allen Langford.

-Good push by the right side of the offensive line on the second drive that ended at the goal line, especially by Kraig Urbik.

-On that drive: why wasn't P.J. Hill in on third and goal? Zach Brown is not the right guy for that run. It was no surprise Fresno stuffed us on fourth down, but I'm still glad we went for it and didn't kick the field goal.

-It looks like Blake Sorensen is coming in for Jonathan Casillas on third downs, yet Casillas has been matched up on Bear Pascoe on certain passes by Fresno. Casillas made two really nice tackles in traffic on Fresno running backs.

-Really good half for Matt Shaughnessy, with his tip on Deandre Levy's interception, tackle for loss, and another tip. Mike Newkirk did a nice job splitting blockers on a tackle for loss, and Jason Chapman ran a great stunt around the offense's left end to sack Brandstater.

-Great call on the touchdown pass to Garrett Graham, the play-action pass ought to be there the way we're running. Another solid half for Graham. Interesting to hear the announcers talk about how Graham might be the better tight end than Beckum. They're both really good, in different ways.

-It's nice to see an opposing offense running the I on offense, a man's offensive scheme.

-Even though the late field goal attempt was blocked, I like the aggressive play calling on the drive to get us in position to kick.

Keep it going in the second half and Charlie's baptism Sunday will be off to a good start!

UW-Fresno preview

Let's get this out of the way right off the bat: I don't think Wisconsin will beat Fresno State tomorrow night.

Wherever my brother is when he reads this, he'll be rolling his eyes and grumbling about my set-the-bar-low philosophy.

But consider everything going against us:

-This is a program that routinely plays BCS schools and often beats them, and is not the least bit intimidated by our pedigree or size. They humbled us at Camp Randall seven years ago, a game I won't forget.

-This is at their stadium, which will be amped to a fever pitch. It's being billed as the biggest game in school history, and they will sure as hell be jacked for that. (I love Deandre Levy's quote about how they had "cute little T-shirts" made for the game.) If we come out flat like we did against Marshall, or suffer a quarter-long brain freeze like against Akron, we could get blown out in a hurry. Last year's loss at Penn State comes to mind as a worst-case scenario.

-This is a team that looked really good in the second half of its opener against Rutgers two weeks ago. The defense, especially, completely shut down Rutgers.

-This is a team with a lot of good players. One coach has said quarterback Tom Brandsteter is the best QB we'll see this year. Ryan Mathews is a good running back. A couple of their offensive linemen are all-conference caliber. They've got a really good tight end named Bear (Pascoe), and we've shown vulnerability covering tight ends. They've got an elite safety in Moses Harris. Lots of players here.

-Two of our best players, Travis Beckum and Jonathan Casillas, haven't played yet this year. They're bound to be rusty.

All that said, I can definitely see scenarios in which we win this game. Here are what needs to happen or what I'd like to see happen.

-Play like the underdog. So what if we're from the Big Ten and they're from the WAC? They should win this game. So try something to sucker punch them right off the bat, like an onside kick or a fake punt (see last year's game at Ohio State).

-Use their crowd-fueled energy against them. Call a screen on the second play of the game. Run a reverse on a kickoff return. Call some run blitzes early.

-Get Beckum involved immediately. Against Tennessee in the bowl game last season he was taken out of the game and even though Garrett Graham had a nice day, the offense was limited as a result.

-Put Casillas on Pascoe and bracket him with Jay Valai over the top.

-Pound the rock. Pound the rock, pound the rock, pound the rock. Even if we're not breaking off big chunks of yardage and first downs right away, or even if they get up 14 points early, the commitment to the run needs to be made. Even though Allan Evridge showed aptitude passing against Marshall, I would rather not put the game on his shoulders. Pound P.J., Zach, and Johnny behind our road graders and give us a chance to hold a stamina advantage in the fourth quarter.

An LA Times columnist wrote earlier this week that the loser of our game has more to lose than the loser of the Ohio State-USC game. I disagree -- the quality of both teams is established enough that barring a lopsided outcome both will be ranked afterward, and there's a lot of season to go. Realistically, neither one of these teams is a legitimate national title contender.

Fresno 26, Wisconsin 23. Prove me wrong Badgers!

UW-Marshall thoughts

So the defense needs to make a big play, eh? How about three picks on Marshall's first three second half possessions? That's more like it!

Overall, after a putrid first 20 minutes, an immaculate last 40 minutes. Passing game was great. Running game did what it could against a team selling out to stop it. Defense turned Marshall over. A good tuneup for Fresno State.

-Good for Niles Brinkley getting two interceptions. That's going to do so much for his confidence, even if both of his picks came on awful passes. On his first one, Marshall's quarterback was pressured by a nice spin move by Matt Shaughnessy and a good edge rush by Deandre Levy.

-Paul Chryst called a good game. In particular, I liked how we seemingly threw on first down more than usual. The pass plays he called did wonders for getting Allan Evridge in a rhythm.

-Evridge showed signs today of being Tyler Donovan tough. Not only did he keep his feet and get throws off with defenders hanging off him, but he took a cheap shot from a Marshall pass rusher on a pass to Garrett Graham. Evridge spread the ball around nicely to seven receivers.

-P.J. Hill's fumbles are starting to concern me, the first one more than the second. He's good enough to keep plays going with his feet and his drive, and that leads to him falling in awkward positions and leaving himself exposed to the types of hits like the one that caused the fumble.

-Good job getting Graham involved in the second half, and Lance Kendricks continued to produce. I'll be happy to have Beckum back for Fresno, though.

-Chryst is calling plays that get the ball in David Gilreath's hands in position to make plays with the ball in his hands, not necessarily depending on him getting himself open. Liked the end around, and the short screen-type play where Gabe Carimi got out and blocked on the perimeter.

-Didn't think we'd see John Clay again after his early fumble, but boy did he run well late. He's on his way to becoming the beast we've thought he could be.

-Was the defense's solid second half the result of adjustments by Dave Doeren and his staff, or just better effort by the Badgers? Probably a bit of both.

-Patrick Butrym and Jeff Stehle both saw time at defensive tackle while the game was still in the balance.

-Sorry, but Bradie Ewing wasn't even close to being in on his touchdown run. But good for him.

-After suffering through Ian Allen last week, we got Charles Davis this week. Davis is probably my favorite college football analyst -- he knows the game, and he knows the Badgers.

On the postgame Bret Bielema just said he wishes they could leave for Fresno right now, and I couldn't agree more. Should be an awesome game against a terrific team in a hostile environment.

UW-Marshall halftime thoughts

Similar halftime score to last week, similar feeling of disappointment, but we ended the first half much better than last week.

What an atrocious start, absolutely embarrassing. Give credit to The Marshalls (what Will has been calling them), they played well, but we were awful. Four penalties in the first six minutes. Failure by the defense to get off the field on third down. Little aggression or precision on offense.

At one point I wrote down "Each play is worse than the last." Then things got better.

-How is their big stiff tight end consistently open? We had struggles keeping up with Akron's tight end last week.

-The first holding call on Maurice Moore was borderline, and helped kill some momentum for us early.

-Niles Brinkley subbed in for Mario Goins at corner and seemed to play better.

-Nice half by Lance Kendricks. Maybe he breaks out a year earlier than I've predicted. (BTW, someone tell Travis Beckum to stop running up and down the sideline so much -- he's sitting out to rest his hamstring, right?) They've done a nice job containing Garrett Graham.

-Allan Evridge wasn't all that sharp on our last touchdown drive, the guys were just extremely wide open. Still, he got the ball where it needed to go. His first pass to Kendricks was very nice.

-The defense has to make a big play here. The pass rush is pressuring this Cann guy, but no sacks.

-Marshall has some great names. Darius Passmore? Best name ever for a wide receiver. Chubb Small? Perfect name for a rapper, or for a guy who got beat up a lot in high school.

-Wanted to point our Andy Kemp and John Moffitt pulling on short-yardage plays again, what a nice dimension to have. Chris Pressley threw a nice block in space on Zach Brown's touchdown run.

-Rough first half for red Big Ten teams against green visiting teams --Ohio State losing to Ohio at halftime? They'll still win by 40.

They are Marshall

First off let's all breathe a sigh of relief.

Randy Moss won't be suiting up for Marshall this weekend.

And neither will Chad Pennington.

Or Byron Leftwich. Or Doug Chapman. Or any of the other excellent football players who have passed through Huntington, W. Va., in the not-so-distant past.

I'm not sure when this game was scheduled (Polzin?), but considering how far in advance some non-conference games are scheduled, when we booked this one Marshall could have been in their borderline top 25 phase. In 1999 they went 13-0, and in 2001 and 2002 they went 11-2.

So at one point our non-conference schedule may have included Marshall, Fresno State, and Virginia Tech — all programs capable of reeling off 10-win seasons. Not too shabby. But because most programs have dry spells at times, we now welcome a program that has gone 4-7, 5-7, and 3-9 in the last three seasons to Madison this weekend.

That doesn't mean this Thundering Herd team can't give us a good game.

Apparently, Marshall thinks they can match our offensive line size-wise. That's interesting, because not many non-BCS teams could; not many BCS teams could, either.

Size aside, the Herd have some defensive playmakers, like safety C.J. Spillman and defensive end Albert McClellan. If you don't think a defensive back we've never heard of before can't come in to Camp Randall and derail a favored UW team, remember what Jamaal Brimmer and UNLV did in 2003.

On our side, Travis Beckum might back, and Jonathan Casillas is going to test his knee, although he probably won't play. As much as I think we'd win this game without Beckum, it would be nice for him and Allan Evridge to get some game work in together before heading to Fresno.

Don't think we're going to lose this one, but can see it being a good test. Depends on how Evridge plays. Last week Paul Chryst was very conservative with the passing game, and with good reason — if you can run for 400 yards, you do it, and save some of the passing playbook or bigger games. My guess is that Evridge throws 15-20 passes this week after throwing 10 last week; whether or not any of those are intercepted, in addition to how we do against the Herd's — sigh — Spread offense will determine how long Marshall has a shot in this one.

Wisconsin 31, Marshall 20