Could Michigan falter?

Michigan is off to a well-documented 1-2 start this season, a struggle out of the gate that was not altogether unexpected. The Wolverines lost a ton of veteran players from last year's team, many of them four-year starters, and with a new coaching staff and offensive system implemented this year, some bumps in the road were to be expected.

What are the chances these struggles will extend throughout this season, and maybe even beyond?

This is the winningest program in college football history, after all. One that routinely brings in top recruits from around the country and plays in New Year's Day bowl games. Michigan and Ohio State have long been the Big Ten's Big Two, with everyone else grabbing leftovers.

But ever since Jim Tressel arrived at OSU, it's been more like a Big One, and even though Michigan has still been very good, it doesn't feel the same.

I have a feeling that the Michigan football program could be headed for a time of relative mediocrity similar to one it went through in the mid-1990s, when it sandwiched Rose Bowl trips around trips to the Hall of Fame, Holiday, Alamo, and Outback bowls. (Note I said relative mediocrity: that reads roughly like our holiday travel log, which given the history of our program would qualify as relative success.) Here's how it might happen:

1. The state of Michigan is undergoing some really tough times. Michigan's heavy reliance on the automotive industry has put its citizens in a precarious position, as GM and Ford hemorrhage market share and jobs. As such, Michigan has had the highest unemployment of any state in the nation.

Michigan's population growth has also stagnated. Between 2000 and 2006, at a time in which the U.S. population grew 6%, and the Midwest's population grew 2.8%, Michigan's grew just 1.6%. This is the seventh-slowest growth among states. Ohio and Pennsylvania, where UM pulls many of its top out-of-state recruits from, grew just 1.1% (fourth-slowest) and 1.3% (fifth-slowest).

Other states feeding Big Ten football programs grew at much quicker paces: Illinois (3.3%), Wisconsin (3.6%), Indiana (3.8%), and Minnesota (5%).

Michigan will probably always get coveted recruits from around the country, kids who are seduced by the colors, the fight song, and the chance to play before 106,000 people sitting on their hands. That stuff doesn't dry up unless there's gross incompetence running things.

But any college football program worth its salt still counts on home state boys as its heart and soul, and Michigan is no exception. If the state's population continues to dwindle by comparison to other states, with families of talented athletes moving elsewhere (likely south) in search of the blue collar jobs that have dried up; if the state's tax base erodes to the point where youth athletics programs are not as well-funded; if leaner economic times in general dissuade recruits from far-flung locations to matriculate at Ann Arbor; then these demographic considerations could have significant negative implications for Michigan's football success.

2. The Spread. Have I shared my emotions about this offense in this blog? If you didn't know, in a nutshell, I don't like it.

But it's hard to argue that the Spread hasn't revolutionized college football. It has leveled the playing field for traditional doormats, who have a more difficult time attracting NFL-level talent to run conventional offenses. It has boosted programs like Florida to another level, although it could be argued that you and I could figure out a way to turn Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin into 35 points per game.

In Rich Rodriguez, Michigan has one of the best Spread coaches out there, if not the best. You've got to figure that once Rodriguez has players better-suited for this offense, they'll be formidable.

But we've seen this before in college football, haven't we? Quirky offense turns the sport on its head, gives rise to a nation full of copycats, then loses favor when it becomes familiar to defensive coordinators and coaches adjust their rosters to address it?

Remember the run-and-shoot? That was fun while it lasted, gave us Andre Ware and David Klingler. The Wishbone option lasted longer and was used by more premier programs, but after Miami started dominating Oklahoma in the late 1980s, the option fell out of favor.

Of course, that's just when Don Morton brought the Veer to Wisconsin. I'm not suggesting that Rodriguez's tenure in Ann Arbor will resemble Morton's in Madison. But if I'm right, and the Spread has peaked, his time at the helm could produce less-than-desirable results. The Spread might have begun its downward slide because:

-So many teams run it now that it's not a novelty to prepare for. I believe that we play more Spread teams than conventional offenses this season. Familiarity breeds success.

-The international brotherhood of defensive coordinators has committed to sharing notes and stopping this thing.

-It's hard to see NFL teams ever adopting the Spread outside of a limited form. The Wishbone could never be run at the pro level because the defensive players are too big, strong, and nasty -- they'd hit the quarterback hard whenever given the chance. Similarly, the Spread leaves itself open to big hits on runs, hits that come far less frequently in college.

That last point could be the ultimate downfall for the Spread at big time programs. As I noted when Terrelle Pryor chose Ohio State over Michigan, he made a wise choice. How have Spread quarterbacks fared in the NFL? Think the 49ers wish they would have taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith?

If elite high school recruits don't think a program's offense is the best chance for them to develop their professional skills, they will not commit to that program. Simple as that.

Do I think Michigan will ever fall to the depths of Indiana? Or even to that of 21st century Michigan State, missing bowl games with regularity?

Not at all. Too much history, too much brand recognition, too much commitment, too much money to let that happen. Plus, the only other Big Ten schools capable of joining Ohio State in a Big Two are Penn State, maybe Illinois.

But it would be nice if the Wolverines came back to the pack for awhile. Winning in Ann Arbor on Saturday would be a step in that direction.

Badger coaching tree

Last week, when Purdue was pursuing Paul Chryst to be its next head coach, one thought that crossed my mind was that it would be a blow to the program, but it would extend the Wisconsin coaching tree. Coaching trees are such a strong indicator of a program's success - a strong coaching staff produces strong coaches, which then go build their own strong staffs elsewhere.

Think about the North Carolina basketball coaching tree. Or the Packers' staff under Mike Holmgren, which at times had Steve Mariucci, Jon Gruden, Dick Jauron, and others.

This also applies to former players. If your program is producing players who go on to become coaches, it is an indicator that you have intelligent athletes with leadership skills. That's why I have a soft spot for Tracy Webster, even if he was coaching at Illinois for four years before moving on to Kentucky.

Yesterday I read that Mel Tucker had been named defensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns. Tucker will always be remembered as the defensive back who made the hit on a Minnesota tight end to secure Barry Alvarez's first road win as Wisconsin coach. After graduating from UW with an ag journalism major, Tucker coached under Nick Saban at Michigan State, then moved on to Miami (Ohio), LSU, and Ohio State before joining Romeo Crennel's staff. Here's hoping Mel gets the Browns' defense in shape and becomes a head coaching candidate.

This all got me thinking about other prominent coaches who played or coached at UW:

-Jay Norvell, just hired today as Oklahoma's co-offensive coordinator. As long as he keeps the Sooners' offense humming, he'll be a head coaching candidate next winter.

-Brad Childress, former UW offensive coordinator, head coach of the Minnesota Vikings.

-Darrell Bevell, former UW quarterback, Chilly's offensive coordinator.

-Jim Hueber, Chilly's offensive line coach. All the UW ties on the Vikings make me slightly nauseous.

-Bill Callahan, former UW offensive line coach, recently fired as Nebraska's coach. Led the Oakland Raiders to the Super Bowl.

-Jay Hayes, defensive line coach for the Cincinnati Bengals.

-Rob Ianello, Notre Dame's recruiting coordinator. As he did in Madison, Rob is tearing it up on the recruiting trail, as the Irish currently have the nation's #1 recruiting class.

-Ron McBride, head coach at Weber State.

-Packers special teams coordinator Mike Stock.

-Mike Cassity is Louisville's defensive coordinator.

-Jeff Horton, St. Louis Rams offensive assistant.

-Brian White, recently fired as Syracuse's offensive coordinator.

-Phil Elmassian, who seems to change jobs every year, was recently let go along with Callahan and is now interested in the defensive coordinator position at Louisiana-Monroe.

-Darrell Wilson, Iowa's outside linebackers and special teams coach.

-And last but not least, Bears coach Lovie Smith. Not kidding - he was a UW assistant in 1987. Perhaps the only coaching positive to come out of the Don Morton era.

That's all the energy I have to research tonight after a tough evening of shoveling in 25 mph winds. Please post a comment if you can think of anyone I'm forgetting here. Will try to tackle a Badger basketball coaching tree in the next couple days.