More post-Champs thoughts

After a few days of reflection, I've got some more thoughts on what the Badgers' win over Miami the other night means. It's mostly good. Here goes.

Speed vs. power
National media types oversimplified our matchup and boiled it down to this, and when we won credited power winning out. Perhaps, but I'll submit that while Miami had the speed advantage among perimeter/skill players, our defensive line's speed advantage over Miami's offensive line was the deciding factor.

Jason Fox's absence at left tackle for the Canes was absolutely fatal for them. O'Brien Schofield and J.J. Watt lived in Jacory Harris's face and never let him get going. If he had time, chances are their receivers would have been more open, or Harris would have hit them when they were open.

It reminded me of the national championship game where Ohio State came in as a big favorite against Florida, and Florida's D-line just killed Troy Smith by running right around the tackles. OSU had fast, skilled perimeter guys who just couldn't get the ball.

Tight End U
If you're from the Midwest, or from any other area Big Ten teams recruit, why would you not go to Wisconsin? Since Paul Chryst's arrival, we've had Owen Daniels, Travis Beckum, Garrett Graham, and now Lance Kendricks. What's interesting about those successful guys is that only Graham started out as a tight end, the others switching from quarterback, linebacker/defensive end, and wide receiver.

Next year we've got Warren Herring and now Sherard Cadogan coming in, two of the better prospects in our next recruiting class, and both true tight ends in the 6-3, 230-pound range. By all accounts they'll fit in nicely and maybe even get a chance to play right away. We've also got a kid named Manasseh Garner, who made his name in high school as a linebacker but appears headed toward an H-Back role in Madison; he's only weighing 205-210 right now, so you'd think he has to put on some weight first.

But we were also in the running for very highly-rated tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz (who backed off his early commitment and went with Iowa) and Alex Smith (who went to North Carolina). How could either of those two possibly thought those schools were better fits for an aspiring professional tight end?

We have oranges here, too
As much as I'd like to see us play bowl games in states other than Florida, putting together a nice showing like we did the other night has to help our standing in the eyes of high school players in that state. Still, we need to be picking the right ones, not just taking anyone from Florida.

We had 11 Floridians on the roster this year. Two of them, Jae McFadden and Culmer Ste. Jean, were starters. Zach Brown, Antonio Fenelus and Aaron Henry are key contributors who've started at times. David Gilbert shows promise. The rest of the guys are freshmen or sophomores. So not a lot of Florida stars on the roster now, but not bad, either.

Finish them
Ask Jana, Graham's fumble in the fourth quarter when we were going in for the game-salting touchdown sent me through the roof. Time after time after time this year we had an opponent on the ropes but let them escape with new life: Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Indiana, and Miami were instances where it happened late; we were controlling Iowa in the first half of that loss, and we had chances to beat Northwestern. Next year we need to do better stepping on our opponents' necks when the opportunity presents itself.

From the glass-half-full vantage point, the cases presented above showed a remarkable improvement in the "stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" department, we showed resolve in not letting any of those first five result in losses. But with our offense, we should be putting teams away early and giving Badger fans' hearts a break.

(On this subject: How many times did Auburn let Northwestern back into the Outback Bowl? Fumbles, penalties, you name it, if that was Wisconsin I would have had a heart attack from all the miscues. Great game, by the way, I was totally wrong on that one.)

UW-Miami box score

I'm still glowing from last night's Badger win, what a way to end the season and get a strong start on 2010. Again, more on that later. Let's look at the box score for some stats that may not have been available immediately after the game.

-Time of possession edge for Bucky: 39:15 to 20:45. Love it. Great balanced play calling by Paul Chryst and above average execution allows that to happen.

-More on that: Miami had 71 tackles, Wisconsin had 41.

-Red zone efficiency: 4-for-4. Stellar all year.

-The temperature was indeed 50 degrees at gametime. It just baffles me that this is heater weather for any team, even one from Florida. Did you see those fat guys from UCLA walking around shirtless in 30-degree Washington, D.C., before their bowl game? Wish I hadn't, but you have to like their attitude. Miami didn't have it.

-Niles Brinkley led us with six tackles. I thought the late hit penalty he got whistled for was iffy, but it was close enough to not be horrible.

-On penalties: I thought the two Kraig Appleton got called for were iffy, but close enough to be horrible. Glad to see him out there a lot, he could conceivably take a big step forward next year, a la Nick Toon this year.

-What a way for O'Brien Schofield to go out: two sacks and a forced fumble. You could argue that Scott Tolzien's performance had more to do with us reversing last year's course with his efficient play, but it's hard to argue that any single player was more important to this year's success than Schofield. He made a ton of tackles behind the line of scrimmage and exhibited terrific leadership. We've got a ton coming back next year, but O'Beezy will be tough to replace.

-Although J.J. Watt seems like a great bet to do it. Two tackles for loss, a fumble recovery and two pass breakups. It would be great to see a full year of J.J. at full strength.

-Chris Borland: two tackles for loss and two QB hurries. No extra points. Jae McFadden and Culmer St. Jean had solid games, but with Borland, Blake Sorensen and Mike Taylor coming back I'm not worried about this unit at all. Especially excited about Taylor's return.

-Another note on Brad Nortman: three punts downed inside the 20, only six punt return yards for Miami.

Watching the rest of these bowl games will be much more enjoyable after last night's win. Hopefully the Big Ten goes on to have a solid showing.

Fallout of Mike Taylor injury

Earlier this week we heard that Mike Taylor's knee injury will sideline him for the rest of the season. First thought: dammit! Not another rotten thing to happen to the Badgers this week!

Second thought: Silver lining is that Chris Borland will be on the field even more.

Third thought: Why wasn't Borland getting snaps instead of Culmer St. Jean or Jae McFadden?

Fourth thought: St. Jean and McFadden, while not playing a starring role, haven't been bad this season. Linebacker, which I thought was perhaps our weakest entering the season, has actually been a plus position.

Fifth thought: Blake Sorensen's been better this year than I'd reckoned, too.

Final thought: But Taylor was our best linebacker this season. He was always around the ball, always making plays in the opponent's backfield. As Bielema said, Taylor has three years ahead of him, and assuming he recovers well he'll keep getting better. Linebacker looks good for the next few years.

Wisconsin-Ohio State halftime thoughts

Pretty frustrating to have completely outplayed Ohio State in the first half but be losing. Our defense dominates, then goes into its sieve mode, one half early. We're 2-1 on time of possession, which is great. We're still in it, and should have plenty of chances to pull this one out.

-Last year against these guys our first defensive possession was about as bad as it gets. This year, completely opposite, set the tone for the rest of the half. Pryor has not looked good at all, but his running ability really bails him out.

-O'Brien Schofield has made some nice pass rush moves, including a great inside move to draw a hold.

-Let's just run that end around to David Gilreath every play, it works. He's not expending any energy returning punts.

-Antonio Fenelus has played pretty well so far in coverage and on special teams. Aaron Henry had a really nice possession midway through, hopefully that'll push him on to more consistent play.

-John Moffitt struggled early, giving up a sack and blocking nobody in space on a screen. Is guard really his best position?

-Culmer St. Jean made a great drop and showed great hands on that pick. Conversely, that play showed just how medicore Pryor is as a passer, terrible read and pass.

-Even if Chris Maragos doesn't score on the fake field goal, I still like the call -- playing to win and not to lose against a favored team in an intimidating environment. We ran a successful fake punt last time we played in Columbus. I didn't think Maragos had the speed to turn the corner, and thought his right foot might have been out short of the first down, but it all turned out well.

-John Clay's lean is a yard or two less than it was last week against much better defenders, but I'm okay with how he's run so far. He does seem to be wrapping the ball with two hands quicker than usual, which limits his mobility.

-Too bad Garrett Graham got called for holding (it's happened recently, right? and another one on the first possession of the second half!), wiped out a nice run by Montee Ball, very well blocked by the left side of the line.

-That field goal by Philip Welch was't a gimme, very important. He almost made another 57-yarder at the end there. He seems to have overcome his early season yips.

-Scott Tolzien isn't playing all that well, although like with Clay, the opposition has a lot to do with it. I liked the move to have him roll out, that should help him buy time, rather than subjecting him to the OSU pass rush that clearly has an advantage on our line.

Keep running the ball and we'll have a shot. Let's see what happens.

Wisconsin-Wofford thoughts

I missed the first five minutes of the Badger game yesterday. Every year my family participates in the Memory Walk, which raises funds for the Alzheimer's Association in its efforts to fight the disease. My grandfather had Alzheimer's, and it was heartbreaking to watch what the disease did to him at the end of his life. It's always good to get together with family and remember him.

So as we pulled into the parking lot of the sports bar where we would watch the game, the refs were confirming John Clay's first fumble. Then, two plays after we forced and recovered a Wofford fumble, Zach Brown coughs it up. My relatives were amused by the figurative steam coming out of my ears after those fumbles and the stupid penalties on our first scoring drive.

Of course, the second quarter made it a laugher, and everyone was giggling about how relaxed I looked. Glad my emotional torment could provide entertainment for the family.

Put the fumbles aside, good game. I was legitimately worried about Wofford's option, but this one was a complete mismatch. Reading the Journal Sentinel's recap today, I almost thought the Badgers lost. Yeah, there was sloppiness, but let's focus on the positives.

-The defense played well, especially the linebackers. Culmer St. Jean had the best game of his career, 15 tackles, two for loss, and a fumble recovery. Mike Taylor had nine tackles, two for loss, and a sack. Jae McFadden had eight tackles, one for loss. It didn't seem like the play ever reached the secondary, the front seven really maintained their individual responsibilities against the option.

-The receiving corps is really looking like the strongest unit on the team. Lance Kendricks emerged from hibernation to have a really nice game, and Garrett Graham had a touchdown. Throw in Mickey Turner's blocking and I can't see how anyone else in the country has a better group of tight ends than us. Nick Toon had another solid game, he has been playing really well this year. And Scott Tolzien is finding them.

-What more can I say about Chris Borland? First he forces a fumble. Then he makes a super-athletic play to block that punt. For the time being, we have a special teams star in the making. Bigger picture, he's going to make plays in the base defense.

Two things on that punt block: I don't think David Gilbert necessarily recovered it in bounds, or at least it was close enough that it should have been reviewed. Nice to see another true freshman making a big play. Also, the fact that Borland could get close enough to jump over the "personal protector" and block the punt shows that formation's limitations. I prefer to see the blockers engage the rushers at the line of scrimmage, rather than letting them build up a head of steam.

-Good for Erik Smith capitalizing on his playing time by running well. He hit holes well, showed power and quickness. Just as nice was that on the drive of Smith's touchdown run, John Moffitt and Bill Nagy made their season debuts. We should be operating with a full deck on the offensive line heading into the Big Ten season.

-Curt Phillips' time was productive. In my mind I compare him to Michigan's Denard Robinson, who is an electric runner at quarterback, very quick and fast. Phillips isn't as quick as Robinson, but is effective running because he's powerful. It wil be interesting to see how and when Phillips will get playing time in tighter conference games. We may go games without seeing him.

-O'Brien Schofield wasn't around the ball as much as the first two games, but he still had a big sack/forced fumble and a pressure that led to Devin Smith's interception. He's playing at an all-conference level.

-Even though he had a fumble, Zach Brown ran reasonably well.

-Lots of guys got in on defense: Kevin Rouse, Shelton Johnson, Kevin Claxton, Tony Megna, Jordan Hein, Brendan Kelly, Leonard Hubbard, Jake Current, Rob Korslin, Ricky Wagner.

Now for the not-so-good parts:

-The game wasn't a sellout, broke a fairly long streak for us. Have to imagine this is a minor protest for UW scheduling another Division I-AA team. It looked, however, like the bulk of the protesters were likely UW students, who have shifted their efforts from Tibet.

-David Gilreath had a bad game with a big negative run, and he should have caught the ball from Tolzien that was ruled a fumble. Isaac Anderson dropped a perfect pass and was called for holding on a Brown touchdown run. Maurice Moore picked up a penalty. Wideouts other than Toon have to clean it up.

-Our defensive tackles are just not making many plays, although you could say that they are occupying blockers and letting the rest of the guys make plays. But they certainly aren't disruptive forces.

-Philip Welch missed an extra point. He's been more inconsistent than anyone thought he'd be.

-Lastly, there are these fumbles, specifically Clay's. What do you make of them? I watched each of them over and over, hoping to be able to give him the benefit of the doubt, that maybe each was the result of an incredible Wofford hit. But while you have to give the Wofford defenders credit for making things happen, all three were plays in which a Division I running back needs to hold onto the ball. You can't really blame the coaches for it. You think John Settle emphasizes ball security less than other running back coaches?

The bigger issue is that through three non-conference games against teams with defenses inferior to what we'll see in the Big Ten, we have not run the ball well at all. Not to be a broken record, but Moffitt and Nagy's absences had to play a role in that, as did opposing defenses stacking up against the run. But screw that -- we're Wisconsin, and it shouldn't matter what Northern Illinois or Fresno State throw at us defensively, we should still be able to pound the rock.

We won, it wasn't as close a game as I'd feared. We made it through the non-conference season without being upset, as Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern were. (How about Northern Illinois?) But while I'm happy, it's still really hard to tell what type of team we had heading into the real part of the schedule.

Wisconsin-Northern Illinois box score

During the tail end of a fantasy football draft this morning I had a chance to look at last night's box score. Some things that stood out:

-We only punted twice for a 33-yard average, but both were downed inside the 20.

-Northern held the time of possession advantage, although it was only 28 seconds.

-Forgot that Maurice Moore had a 21-yard reception in the game, he ran a nice route to get open and Tolzien hit him.

-Chris Maragos had a better game than I thought -- led the team with nine tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss, and of course the game-clinching breakup. They showed him getting the team pumped up in the pregame, and it looked a tad unnatural for him, but he's off to a great start as a captain.

-O'Brien Schofield is still my player of the game with seven tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and half a sack. I really liked how Dave Doeren changed up OB's positioning and stance, he looks natural without his hand on the ground, on foot in front of the other.

-Great start for J.J. Watt, six tackles, half a sack, a hurry and a tip. He and Schofield were great, but I'm a little concerned that the tackles didn't even seem to be on the field. Then again, Northern didn't exactly run all over us, so maybe they just did a good job occupying blockers.

-Culmer St. Jean was credited with a couple hurries, he had his moments, as did Blake Sorensen. Devin Smith was active with six tackles.

Blogger roundtable: Defense

OK, this is about a month overdue, and some of the responses might seem a little dated, but ... thanks to Adam Hoge for putting this together.

Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?

On Wisconsin: Yeah, 5 years since Anttaj and Erasmus, but harder to believe for me is that Chapman and Shaughnessy never became true beasts on the line. They had so much promise early. Schofield is solid (led the team in sacks last season) and everyone is excited about Watt, but it's all based on practice so far. I want to believe in him, but I'm a little nervous. I'm concerned about our size everywhere and Moore really should be an end (where he would probably be very good), but we should have speed on the edges. I don't know who the solid tackles-to-be are, but with Nzegwu, Mains, and Westphal, there is plenty of young talent ready to step up on the ends. We'll need it.

BadgerCentric: It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien Schofield is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.

Hoops Marinara: It's a shame Erasmus and Co. flamed out in the NFL. Maybe they weren't that great after all. In 2009, the Badgers look weak up the middle and that spells trouble. I like O'Brien Schofield, who seems like he should be the emotional leader on the unit. Again, I like the younger guys UW has backing up the end positions, but inside is a question mark.

Bucky’s 5th Quarter: You have to be careful from what comes out of Camp Randall in the off-season because a lot of it can be propaganda. But I must say I am a little more optimistic about the defensive line than I was in the spring. After talking with O’Brien Schofield, I must say he seems like a solid leader and he’s determined to have a good year. If J.J. Watt blossoms like he is supposed to, I think Brendan Kelly and Louis Nzegwu do enough to make this a solid line.

Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp. seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?

On Wisconsin: I think the linebackers are the scariest group. First, Sorenson looked S-L-O-W in the spring. I'm pulling for Taylor if only because Sorenson either isn't fast enough or didn't care enough to try harder. I think St. Jean played pretty well when he had his chances last season, so we have two solid starters, but who's backing them up? That's where the loss of Hodge as a solid, contributing second-stringer really hurt. We've heard some positives about Megna, Rouse, and Hubbard, but we haven't seen it yet. Bottom line: I'm worried. Really worried.

BadgerCentric: Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorensen, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. Wh

Hoops Marinara: Sorensen certainly has a lot of expectations to fulfill, but I think along with Culmer St. Jean and J. McFadden they can form a decent group. No one will accuse them of being as athletic as last year's group -- Casillas and Levy were two of the best athletes at that position that Wisconsin has seen. But what the Badgers really need is simply a group that knows how to tackle well. I don't want every draw play that gets past the line going for 6 ... can we get another Donnel Thompson in this bunch, please?!

Bucky’s 5th Quarter: I’m excited about McFadden in the middle, but very worried about the other two spots. Culmer St. Jean has never really put it all together and Sorensen didn’t exactly take advantage of his opportunities in the spring. It should be interesting to see what Mike Taylor can do. If he has a good camp, this will be the most fun defensive position battle over the next month.

Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?

On Wisconsin: I think they are a strength, but that's relative to the near total unknown of the front 7. Especially at safety, I worry about making that critical tackle. As much as Valai can lay the wood (needs to watch the head-to-head stuff, though), he missed his fair share of tackles last season. That's been Carter's problem all along, which is why Maragos will probably start at free safety. At corner Henry will be fine. I'm glad they decided to keep him out all of last season to truly let him heal. Niles Brinkley played fine last season, and I'm hoping Fenelus and Smith are coming along as well as advertised. But hope is not a method.

BadgerCentric: It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks: Henry with the knee, Maragos still learning the position, Valai and his pure hitter MO, and Brinkley giving up big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys and the young guys too.

Hoops Marinara: There's no question that the secondary looks good by comparison. But I think they actually will be good. Henry should be ready to go -- he's one of the elite talents on the team. I'm really excited to see him grow up. The entire makeup of the secondary is intriguing. You have knock-out artist in Valai, an overachiever in Maragos. Niles Brinkley is probably the weak link.

Bucky’s 5th Quarter: Remember when Shane Carter led the Big Ten in interceptions two years ago? And Niles Brinkley picked off four passes last season? Why don’t I remember all of this? Oh, because when they weren’t grabbing turnovers they were getting beat for touchdowns and committing crucial penalties. Every member of the starting secondary has a good amount of experience, but how much talent do they have? We’ll find out soon.

What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?

On Wisconsin: Bottom line is the heat should be squarely on Doeren. After what Hankwitz did to turn around the Northwestern defense, Bielema's choice to go with Dave over Mike hasn't looked so hot. Maybe it was just breaking everything in the first year with guys who were more used to Hankwitz's way of doing things? That's no excuse this year. On top of making tackles, the defense needs to improve its conditioning. The losses to Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all lay at the defense's tired feet (Bielema's too, of course). The idea that a Barry Alvarez legacy team (as long as he's the AD, he's a part of it) could be 9th in scoring defense in the Big Ten is unfathomable. That can't happen again.

BadgerCentric: I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me are comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there.

So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be one thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.

Hoops Marinara: It starts at the top with BB. I can't stress enough how much I want the coach to relinquish the Special Teams duties. He needs to set the example being focused and knowing where to be at all times. The good news is if the secondary can be everything I want it to be, that makes the job of pressuring the QB a little easier. I think the offense can be better this year too, which should (hopefully) alleviate the problems the defense had being worn out all the time in tight games.

Bucky’s 5th Quarter: The good news is that fixing these problems was item No. 1 in the off-season. Improving the defense’s mental and physical toughness – and committing fewer mistakes – will give this team an extra win or two this season. And if the problems continue then it will be a major problem for the defensive coaching staff.

I'm back

To paraphrase the words of my favorite Onion columnist, Jim Anchower:

Hola, amigos. How's by you? I know it's been a long time since I rapped at ya ... but travel, work, kids, Webinz, Weeds, blah blah blah. In short, the motivation to update this blog during the offseason has been missing.

But, as has been pointed out to me several times in the past week, it's time to get my butt back on the keyboard and talking Badgers. The season's less than a week away now, and even though my expectations are as low as they've been in about five years, that's no reason to stay silent.

Lots to talk about before Saturday's opener, but I'm going to focus my thouhts on the initial depth chart.

Quarterback
Scott Tolzien and Curt Phillips are co-#1, and Tolzien is going to start against Northern Illinois. Although it was more exciting when midway through camp it seemed Phillips would emerge as the starter, I can live with this setup. Hopefully Phillips impresses enough in his snaps to earn the majority of the playing time -- or Tolzien plays so well that he claims the job outright. Bottom line: didn't expect much out of this position coming into fall camp, still don't.

Running back
So Zach Brown is going to start ahead of John Clay? Interesting. In this instance, I see it as a positive: Brown picking up his game rather than Clay disappointing. Clay's still going to get his carries and make an impact, and maybe less carries will lessen his injury risk.

Outside linebacker
Very excited to see Mike Taylor out on the field. When is the last time we had a freshman starting at linebacker? The adjectives used to describe this kid are the right ones. No offense to Blake Sorensen, but he doesn't seem to be a big-play type of guy; neither does Culmer St. Jean. Jae McFadden is solid, but also isn't a turnover-forcing, sack-creating force. Let's hope Taylor brings some of that.

Cornerback
Devin Smith has earned raves all offseason, and it wasn't a big surprise that he beat out Niles Brinkley. Which, like at running back, is more a reflection on the improvement of the new starter than regression of the new backup. Brinkley struggled a lot last year, but he also made some plays, and I would have been perfectly happy with him starting again this year. Smith and Aaron Henry should be a solid pair.

Here's what excites me about this depth chart overall: seven senior starters, and only three more senior backups. Few of these guys are among our best players. We may struggle this year -- I'm fully expecting it -- but a lot of freshmen and sophomores are going to get significant experience this year, which should really pay off in the next couple years.

Questions from Adam Hoge

The latest round of Badger football questions comes from fellow Cardinal guy Adam Hoge, this time regarding the defense. Here are my thoughts:

Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?

It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But thinking about it further, that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.

Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?

Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorenson, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. What about playing Pleasant at linebacker? We see so much Spread it might make sense to have a guy like that in the front seven.

Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?

It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks. Henry with the knee. Maragos still learning the position. Valai and his all-or-nothing hitter MO. Brinkley and big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys, and the young guys too. Shane Carter is a wild card, if he could come in and force some turnovers that would be huge.

What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?

I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me is comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there.

So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be on thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.

Champs Sports Bowl, forecast time

It's funny: December 27 is only five days before January 1, our bowl date of choice the last four years, but it seems like five weeks. Just yesterday I was trading emails with Florida State bloggers about this matchup that seemed so far off, then all of a sudden it's the day before the game. I'd prefer we go back to January 1.

Whatever, game time is almost here. Here's what I'm thinking:

Bobby Bowden has noted that his team is a handful plays away from being 10-2. The same could be said about the Badgers. But the truth is, 7-5 just about sums up this team, and I'm guessing 8-4 is just about right for the 'Noles. Both teams have plenty of strengths, but critical weaknesses relegated them to playing on a Saturday in December.

Florida State is probably the better team. If we had better quarterback play, and a healthy Travis Beckum, I might feel differently, but these are the cards we've been dealt. From what I've read FSU is vulnerable against tight ends, and while Garrett Graham ought to be able to exploit that, he won't dominate like he and Beckum could have combined. Lance Kendricks' unexpected return is a pleasant surprise and could be very good for us.

I see the Badgers putting together two legitimate scoring drives, each showing the offense at its best: power running setting up conservative intermediate passes. I see plenty of other promising drives stalling from the same bugaboos that have plagued the team all year: turnovers, dropped passes, lack of commitment to the run, penalties. In particular, I see several false starts called on our offensive line trying to hurry back into protection against FSU's speedy D-Line.

I see the Seminoles putting together two legitimate scoring drives as well. As in the Ohio State game, the Badgers defense will play pretty well but prove vulnerable to big plays in the passing game. UW's defense will miss Jonathan Casillas, but Culmer St. Jean will not embarrass himself and will give us hope for the linebacking corps next year. I see Christian Ponder bail the Badgers out with turnovers on at least two drives.

I see the game being decided by special teams, specifically Florida State's excellent return game. Philip Welch has had a fantastic freshman season, but his kickoffs have been on the short side. As such, I see Michael Ray Garvin breaking off a long kickoff return for either a score or setting up a short touchdown drive for FSU. I also see Welch missing a makable field goal attempt, and FSU's Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Graham Gano making a long field goal attempt, both swinging momentum.

(It is heartening, however, to read that Bret Bielema is planning on playing many defensive starters on the kick coverage units during the bowl: Jay Valai, Jae McFadden, DeAndre Levy, O'Brien Schofield, Aubrey Pleasant. That can only be positive, even if these guys might be a little rusty at staying in their lanes.)

I see this bowl game being tight, and when it's all over the Badgers and their fans will look back on it and think about the missed opportunities to do something great against one of the legendary programs in college football. A microcosm of 2008 on the whole.

Florida State 20, Wisconsin 10

Prove me wrong, boys!

UW-Minnesota preview

It would be easy to look at this game, if you're a Badger fan, and be really confident. After all, UW ran for over 400 yards Saturday, and Minnesota has looked pretty mediocre the past few weeks while threatening to squander its 7-1 start and end up in a familiar bowl destination -- Detroit. What's more, their best player, Eric Decker, is out, which means Badger DBs don't necessarily have to wear cups.

Maybe it's the Bob Bummer in me, but I don't see this being a one-sided game. Here's why:

-Our success came against a severely depleted Indiana team. The confidence the offense took away from that game is big, but executing the same basic plays probably won't yield the same boffo results against Minnesota. I sure as hell don't expect David Gilreath to carry the ball eight times again.

-Much of Minnesota's early success this season came from forcing turnovers. We have been, to put it politely, turnover-prone this season. I'm penciling Dustin Sherer in for two interceptions, which may or may not be costly.

-As Clint Brewster was quick to remind Taylor Mehlhaff, last year the Gophers played us much closer than they should have, given how rotten they were. This leads me to believe that Tim Brewster, for as much crap I throw his way for being something of a used-car salesmen in football coach's gear, is an above-average motivator who isn't going to let his team's recent skid spiral out of control. Especially in what is arguably the biggest rivalry game for both schools.

-Decker's out, but they get Ralph Spry back.

-Their running game is showing life with this Eskridge guy. I'm worried about Jae McFadden, who said he's ready to play Indiana tomorrow. Dude, check that concussion again. The defense ain't the same with Culmer St. Jean in the middle.

Still think we're going to win, but unlike previous Wisconsin-Minnesota games at Camp Randall, think it's going to be close. Unlike last year, we seem to have an idea of what to do against the Spread, which is nice. I don't see it being the high-scoring affair common in this series this century.

Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 16

How did you find Badgercentric?

Badgercentric has been around for about five months now, and it’s a lot of fun to write. If you’re a stats/analysis geek like me, it’s also fun to take a look at who’s coming to your site and why.

Every few days I check out Google Analytics and see what sites are referring people to this blog, and what search engine keywords are doing the trick. Through February 23, 2,293 keywords have brought people here, and it’s fascinating to see them. Many are related to The Office and non-UW items, but I’m going to share my favorite Badger-related search terms for Badgercentric:

#5 punch groin wisconsin minnesota (you wouldn't believe how many there are like this - apparently Minnesota receiver Eric Decker's handiwork on Ike was noticed)
#7 brett valentyn
#13 bo ryan soulja boy (tons of searches similar to this)
#38 erin andrews ice fishing (pretty sure this was all Toohey)
#108 wquinton smith
#151 matt lepay’s call of final play vs. texas
#246 jack ikegwuonu nuts
#311 tim brewster feud with bret bielema
#315 university of wisconsin band nice clipboard rex (from the Packers-Bears game at Lambeau, rex is Rex Grossman)
#318 who owns the metrodome (we do)
#330 “aaron henry” trash bielema
#411 “jenna fischer” rentmeester
#426 “mark tauscher” vegas (what in the world could they have been looking for?)
#480 “scott burch” penn state (did Froehlich finally discover the Internet?)
#500 “tom crean” tan (a Journal Sentinel story last week called him “Tom Cream”)
#554 6’3 diamond taylor
#563 al toon wisconsin badgers jersey number
#579 andy crooks facebook
#583 anti uw shirts
#589 arrogant michigan
#604 badger baggo, #630 badger cornhole game
#720 bielema bad goatee (when did he have a goatee?)
#723 bielema mad youtube
#794 bret bielema passed out in bathroom (where did Google get that from this blog?)
#840 can curt phillips be a starter freshman year?
#859 chris chambers oshkosh north high school (huh?)
#925 culmer st. jean highlights
#996 doug gottlieb hates wisconsin, #1124 gottlieb why do you hate wisconsin?
#1035 erick olson badger football
#1072 football jansen wisconsin

#1100 gangster toohey (his secret life!)

#1167 how many times has joe krabbenhoft had stitches?
#1172 i love appalachian state t shirt wisconsin
#1215 jason bohannon drinking game
#1499 mock draft, tyler donovan
#1637 picture of bill callahan farewell tour
#1854 swan family website fennimore hamstring
#1921 tight end schwalbach (fill in your own punchline)
#2063 what is mike kelley former uw basketball player doing now?
#2279 matt schwalbach casino (search was from Pompano Beach, Fla. – did Megan hire a private investigator to look into our Vegas trip?)

Defense

The Wisconsin defense was not as good as we thought it would be this year. Last year's unit ranked near the top of the national rankings in many key categories, and seven starters returned. The key positions to examine: defensive end, middle linebacker, and the two safety spots, not coincidentally the spots vacated by graduating seniors.

Two items in the news today illustrate why:

-Roderick Rogers was signed by the Broncos off their practice squad. Even though, as this story says, he was a two-time all-conference pick, I never thought he was an irreplaceable member of the defense; certainly never thought he was NFL-caliber, but apparently he is, and I'm glad. The struggles in the defensive backfield show just how good he and Joe Stellmacher were. In retrospect, Stellmacher really overshadowed Rogers, who was a darn good player in his own right.

-In The Cap Times Mike Lucas writes about Elijah Hodge's injury troubles this season (he also writes about Abdul Hodge, veers off onto Erik Ainge for a few paragraphs, and I think may have made his picks for the Iowa caucuses). Here's a guy who I thought would step in seamlessly for Mark Zalewski, and he may have, had he not been hurt. There is no such award, but look for Hodge to be our comeback player in 2008. The experience Culmer St. Jean and Jae McFadden got because of injuries to Hodge and DeAndre Levy will pay off as well.

On another note, I was talking to a friend about Joe Thomas last week and he asked me if Joe was having a good rookie season. Since I'm not an offensive line expert or Ron Jaworski, I couldn't tell, but responded that since the Browns offense was doing so well this year, he must have been at least holding his own. Yesterday he was named a Pro Bowl alternate, so he must have done OK.