UW-Hawaii thoughts

Finally got to watch the entire Wisconsin-Hawaii game Wednesday night after watching bits and pieces of it Saturday night during a family Christmas get-together. It was a nice, relaxing time, knowing what happened already. Some thoughts:

-O'Brien Schofield was just a beast, again, with two sacks and constant pressure. J.J. Watt finished the regular season strong, too, with two sacks and a tackle for loss. Those two ended up being the top TFL duo in the country -- did not expect that at the beginning of the season.

-Chris Borland and Louis Nzegwu also had sacks. There is solid hope to have a good pass rush again next season.

-And Borland kicked two extra points! Thought I dreamt that, but the box score and replay confirmed.

-Time of possession edge: 37:57 - 22:03.

-Workmanlike games for John Clay and Montee Ball, although Ball had more negative yardage runs than I would have liked -- 17 yards lost. He did look comfortable as a receiver out of the backfield.

-Scott Tolzien completed 80% of his passes. His accuracy and the pass rush from Schofield and Watt are the two biggest reasons we won nine games this year.

-David Gilreath had a really nice game, scoring on the end-around, making a great comeback on a long pass from Tolzien, and averaging almost 50 yards on two kickoff returns. Did you notice how, on that long pass play, Gilreath caught the ball and the Hawaii defender was standing there with his arms out, and a second later looked surprised he didn't have the ball? Funny.

-Lance Kendricks had a couple nice catches, but what I really liked was his block on Gilreath's touchdown run. Conversely, Garrett Graham was called for yet another hold. It's like he had a target on his jersey this year.

-It was really nice to see Dustin Sherer score that last touchdown, and his teammates' reaction (especially Zach Brown). Many stories have been written about the class Sherer showed in handling his demotion, and it shouldn't be understated. One reason this team achieved so much more than last year's was chemistry and leadership, and a vocally disappointed Sherer could have disrupted that. He didn't, and you can tell his teammates loved him for it.

Coming in I was a tiny bit worried that Hawaii would give us a good game. They were, after all, playing well and playing for bowl eligibility. That we dominated so thoroughly is a testament to the job Bret Bielema and his staff did getting the team prepared and focused.

Since their return, many of the Badgers on Twitter have frequently detailed their longing for paradise, but I think it's finally wearing off as their focus turns to Miami. This will be a good three weeks to get ready for the 'Canes and get the youngsters some additional practice time.

Rushing toward a new identity?

Wisconsin's 3-0 start to the year has not been entirely unexpected, but some parts of the Badgers' play have been. Most notable, I think you'd agree, has been the proficiency of Scott Tolzien and the passing game.

After last year's Allen Evridge-Dustin Sherer nightmare, this year's passing numbers are stunning. A 69% completion ratem, 9.2 yards per pass, 13.3 yards per catch, 226 yards per game. Great distribution to our various talented receivers. If that completion percentage were to somehow hold up, it would be the best mark in school history; the previous was 67.5% in 1993, led by Darrell Bevell.

Thing is, we're only averaging 199.3 rushing yards per game. This is only 12 yards per game less than last year's conference-leading total, and within a yard of where we were in 2007. But ...

-Take out Curt Phillips' 126 yards, and that average falls to 176 yards per game. True, Phillips' running is not a fluke, it's a legitimate facet of our offense. But it's not powerful, up-the-gut, Badger rushing.
-The per-rush average is 5.0, but take out Phillips' contribution, and the average falls to 4.76 yards per carry.
-These numbers would be just fine if we had played three BCS schools, but we didn't. We gained 258 against Wofford, when an appropriate number would have been, oh, 450.

With Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, et al still to go on the schedule, it's a safe bet that the per-game and per-carry rushing averages will decrease significantly by season's end. The passing proficiency too.

But if these trends hold to some extent, is it necessarily a bad thing? One of the things I've loved about Wisconsin football since Barry Alvarez came to Madison was the power football mentality. The big linemen, the big backs -- pound the rock! Love it.

However, our best offenses, and most often our best teams, have featured better passing teams and better offensive balance (1998 notwithstanding, sorry Mike Samuel). You don't see too many overly one-dimensional teams playing in BCS bowl games nowadays.

So I guess as long as we're gaining yards and scoring points somehow, I'll be happy. But if we could somehow get 300 yards rushing on Sparty this Saturday, I'll be happiest.

Questions from Duff Beach

Duff Beach, frequent commenter and blogger at Badger Sports Bar, recently emailed myself and several other bloggers some questions about the upcoming football season, to get us going. Trust me, it's tough getting motivated to blog during the summer. Duff's first round focused on the offense, my answers below.

What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?

Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.

The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?

Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.

Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?

I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not mucn more. With Graham and a solid good of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.

And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?

It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr is he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.

I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?

The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.

Spring game photos: Quarterbacks

Curt Phillips looked perfectly comfortable running the first-string offense during the spring game. It certainly seemed that he had the unit in scoring position just about every time he stepped in under center. Speaking of which, he looked fine under center, after playing the spread in high school.

As advertised, Phillips showed some good wheels, this time running a bootleg left.

This would be a scene I'd like to see a lot in the next four years.

As mentioned Saturday, I liked what I saw from Dustin Sherer's new throwing motion. It made me cringe every time he threw the ball last year, but I think this motion will suit him well the more he gets comfortable with it. It's a higher release point, and has less of a hitch. He threw the one interception that was returned for a touchdown (while I was taking Will to the bathroom, didn't see it), but other than that looked good.

Phillips wasn't the only one who looked good running the bootleg. sherer was pretty good too.

Spring game thoughts

Made it to the spring game today, and was glad I did. It was the first one I've been to in 11 years, if memory serves, and it's always great to watch live football in April.

Hard to tell too much, because a. It's the spring game, a glorified scrimmage, and b. I had Will with me, and if you've met him, he's a handful. We had a great time.

Overall, I was pleased with how efficiently the first team offense played. Granted, playing against third- and fourth-stringers they should put up good numbers, but for some reason it seems that the first string never looks that sharp in this contest. They looked as good as could be expected today.

No defensive players really stood out, although it's tough to judge the pass rush because plays were whistled dead before sacks could be finalized. In the secondary, Chris Maragos and Devin Smith both made nice plays on the ball, and Aaron Henry seemed to be moving around well.

At quarterback, Dustin Sherer was solid. It was clear his throwing motion has been improved (photos forthcoming), but he doesn't look entirely comfortable with it. Curt Phillips got in and made some plays, and while his arm wasn't as weak as I feared, it wasn't that bad. Scott Tolzien showed some shaky mechanics, throwing off his back foot. Jon Budmayr didn't look overwhelmed, but didn't create much; both he and Tolzien were probably held back by playing with the deep reserves.

As could be expected, the tight ends got themselves open and were a big part of the offense. Lance Kendricks had a nice touchdown catch, as did Garrett Graham. Mickey Turner did a lot of motioning into a fullback spot.

John Clay ran well, shedding tacklers left and right. Zach Brown ran hard inside. But Erik Smith was the biggest revelation. He showed nice lateral movement, in particular a nice jump cut, and some separation speed. He could play some this fall.

Notables seen in passing: Keaton Nankivil, Cecil Martin, UW band tuba legend Zack Dachel, and hockey/online video guru Todd Milewski.

Today did little to alleviate my main concerns heading into the 2009 season -- pass rush, defensive tackle, linebacker depth, offensive line newcomers -- but I didn't expect it to. It's fun to see all the new guys who get a shot to make a name for themselves as Badgers, and we'll be pulling for them all this fall.

Motion sickness

Last week the Journal Sentinel ran an interesting story about how Dustin Sherer is working on improving his throwing motion. He makes an interesting point. It's tough to just radically change your throwing motion when you've been doing it your whole life.

My first question is: why did it take Sherer until his fifth year in college to make this change? You'd have to imagine the accuracy issues that plague him now on account of the throwing motion have plagued him his first four years in the program.

Which leads to my second question: where's the coaching on this? Does our staff just coach the starters? Did they think Sherer was never a viable starting option so he wasn't worth the time investment?

This goes back to my bigggest concern regarding the current staff -- player development. Guys like Sherer are who we will typically get in recruiting, guys with some talent and potential but not surefire stars like Matthew Stafford or Terrelle Pryor. If we are to succeed, these two- or three-star guys need to be coached up.

Sherer's throwing motion should have been addressed and corrected three years ago, not now, when he is the incumbent starter at the most important position on the field.

Badger football: Where are we headed?

Today is my dad's 59th birthday. He started taking me to Badger games a couple years before the start of the X axis on this graph, in 1988, but by the time of Barry Alvarez's first year, 1990, the story was the same. One win.

I'm pretty sure that if you asked my dad, while we were sitting at Camp Randall through a 28-12 loss to California in Barry's first game as coach, to plot a graph of Wisconsin football wins over the next two decades, the line would have topped off at about eight wins, and from time to time dipped back into the two- or three-win range. Sort of like Indiana.

But since then, the number of wins generated by the Wisconsin football program on an annual basis has generally been on the upswing. Everyone remembers the double digit-win seasons of 1993, 1998, 1999, 2005, and 2006. Badger football at its finest.

The point of this graph, however, is to remind everyone that while the Badgers have enjoyed an unprecedented run of success over the past two decades, every peak is followed by a valley.

The '93 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving '94 team and a '95 team that didn't go bowling. The '98-'99 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving 2000 team and an '01 team that didn't go bowling. The '06 12-win team was followed by an underachieving '07 team an '08 team that wouldn't have gone bowling if there weren't 845 bowl games in college football nowadays.

So we've been here before.

But wait! you say. This dropoff to near-.500 mediocrity was supposed to happen next year, after the Shaughnessys and Langfords and Levys and Chapmans and Urbiks and Kemps and Beckums have exhausted their eligibility. 2008 should have been great!

Alas, it wasn't, for a number of reasons that have been well-documented here and elsewhere. Add that to the massive losses on the offensive and defensive lines, and expectations for 2009 will be lower than any season since 2004, John Stocco's first year at quarterback. Like the current economic downturn, this latest slide looks different -- worse -- than previous recent downturns in Badger football. There is a very real possibility that 2009 will be a bowl-less season for Wisconsin. That would be disappointing, and would undoubtedly have even more Badger fans calling for Bret Bielema's dismissal.

I would argue that the most critical goal for 2009 is not chasing seven wins or some low-level bowl game, but correcting systemic problems that contributed to the declines of the past two seasons -- regardless of how it impacts 2009. If those are properly addressed, the future looks bright for 2010 and beyond. If not, Barry will be looking for a new coach around the time of my dad's 61st birthday.

Here's what we need to address:

Quarterback
This year's collapse began with subpar quarterback play. First Allan Evridge, then Dustin Sherer failed to play the position efficiently. Inaccurate passing, interceptions, sacks, and lost scrambling opportunities put the Badger offense and defense in difficult positions, and things snowballed from there.

To me, this is the downside to the diversity Paul Chryst has added to the attack. On the whole, Chryst has made the Wisconsin offense far more modern, explosive, unpredictable, and diverse -- in a word, better. In my opinion he is the best offensive coordinator we've ever had and is still the guy we need in that job. But when you don't have a quarterback capable of executing all these nuances, you struggle, as we did this year.

The '99 Rose Bowl was on the Big Ten Network again last week and I watched us run up 38 points on UCLA. There wasn't a lot of mystery to Brad Childress's offense -- hand off to Ron Dayne and Mike Samuel drop back a few times for deep balls to Chris Chambers.

By no means am I advocating a return to the Stone Age offense run by Chilly, and to an extent Brian White. What I am advocating is a shift of the offensive focus from the quarterback back to the tailback. It will always be easier for us to recruit a stud running back or two than it will be to recruit an above-average quarterback -- and history shows we can win without above-average quarterbacks.

If P.J. Hill returns next year, as he should, he and John Clay will be the perfect people to re-emphasize the tailback at the Midwest's version of Tailback U.

This year we averaged just 40.7 rushing attempts per game, the fewest since 1995. That has to change.

One more quarterback-related note: our best have been multiple-year starters. Bevell, Bollinger, Samuel, Stocco. This to me is why every effort should be made to prepare Curt Phillips to start, even if Sherer or Tolzien are better options for winning games in 2009. If there is any chance Phillips will be the guy during his time in Madison, he should be our starter next season.

Player development
We just graduated are very talented senior class, many of whom will find spots on NFL rosters this fall. As a group, though, they weren't highly-rated coming out of high school. They were solid prospects who developed into above-average college football players.

The distressing thing is most of their development came between their freshman and sophomore years, at the tail end of the Alvarez Era. Think about the guys: Shaughnessy, Beckum, Chapman, Levy, Casillas, Urbik, Kemp, VandenHeuvel, Langford, Ikegwuonu, Hodge. Of those guys, who was better as a junior or senior than he was as a sophomore? Langford and Kemp are the only clear-cut answers.

The other guys didn't necessarily regress, but they didn't take the next step toward all-conference performances that their first years starting indicated was possible.

This is troubling. Even though Bielema and his staff appear to be doing a good job recruiting, we will never consistently bring in classes like those of Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State. Never have, never will. And schools like Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois will also finish ahead of us in the recruiting rankings in any given year.

The advantage we always had under Alvarez and his staff was unmatched player development. They took those two- and three-star guys and made them into All-Big Ten players. Five-star guys like Joe Thomas became all-time greats.

I'm not seeing similar player development under this staff. Next year in particular, we'll need the wide receivers and defensive backs to take a big step forward, because they'll have more experience than our guys in the trenches. We're not going to trade for Regis Benn or sign Donvan Warren as a free agent, so this improvement is going to have to come from within. It's on the coaches (and the players) to make it happen.

Swagger
By swagger, I'm not talking about Brian Urlacher in an Old Spice commercial or Florida State running out to midfield and taunting the opponent. I'm talking about taking the field secure with the knowledge that you are better prepared both physically and mentally to beat your opponent.

The Badgers have lacked that these past two years. Sure, they've run around the field showing emotion, and said the right things in the press. But it's been superficial. Bluster and bravado are no substitute for genuine confidence and swagger, the kind of confidence and swagger you get from ...

Leaders
Reading yet another Badger football history book the other day brought back fond memories of the leaders this program has had in recent times. Chris McIntosh. Donnel Thompson. Joe Panos. Cecil Martin.

Recent Badger teams have lacked guys like this. Plenty of good players and guys who led by example, but few who set the tone in a way that everyone could see.

Leadership candidates for the next two transition years: Gabe Carimi, John Moffitt, Jay Valai. All three are well-spoken starters with charisma and all-conference ability. It's on them to bring the others along with them on the march back to the top.

Coaches
Sign of the times: my Fire Bret Bielema? post from earlier this fall is still the most-read post on this blog in the last 30 days. Here's my take on the coaching staff.

Bielema should not be replaced. He deserves five years to show what he can do, just as I think all college coaches deserve five years. If at that time the program still looks as it does today, he should be replaced.

We're not Notre Dame or Alabama, programs that can turn over coaches every three years if things aren't going as well as planned. Why? We don't have the money to pay for top available coaches (or buy out coaches' contracts) and we don't have the name recognition for recruiting to continue unimpeded in the face of staff turnover.

So what does Bielema have to show in the next two years?

Obviously he needs to be a better game manager. This year everything went wrong. Trying to score at the end of the first half against Penn State and Florida State backfired horribly. The defense was disorganized in critical situations. Chryst shouldn't be allowed to call options on third-and-1 ever again. The penalty he incurred against Michigan State, while petty on the ref's part, should not have happened.

In 2006 Bielema's aggressiveness drew raves, as we often scored at the end of the first half and stayed a step ahead of opponents. This year nothing worked. He needs to find that happy medium between his risk-taking sensibilities and Barry's conservative ones. You know that ridiculous play that resulted in Florida State's first touchdown would not have been called under Alvarez.

Also, as noted in the season review post, we were beaten soundly in the second half of our losses this year. We need to win the battle of the halftime adjustments darn near every time out.

Preparation also needs to improve dramatically. All the mental errors that drove us nuts this year don't just spring up on Saturday. They are stamped out on Wednesday and Thursday. We don't have the overwhelming talent to overcome those mistakes.

Finally, Bielema needs to take a close look at his staff. His first staff, with the likes of Bob Palcic and Mike Hankwitz, seemed to be a good blend of youth and experience. Now it's all youth. I'm not going to single out one particular position coach for criticism, because all the units had their good and bad moments this year. But that sort of inconsistency is not surprising when so many of the coaches are in their 30s.

What Bielema should do is bring in at least one older hand as an associate head coach, a Dan McCarney type. Perhaps he's been reluctant to do so because he's afraid it would challenge his authority as a young head coach. If so, he's got to get over it. He needs someone to talk him out of letting Evridge and Sherer throw from their own 10 with a minute left in the first half. He also needs a couple of guys whose forte is player development and not just recruiting.

Bielema's staff doesn't need to be a full-fledged team of rivals, but he needs to institute some checks and balances for this thing to work better.

And he needs to stop coaching special teams and find someone else who can.

Bielema can be the guy who leads us on a fourth upward slope. The question is whether or not he can work through these growing pains before Barry is forced by external conditions (ticket sales?) or his own gut to make a change.

As the offseason progresses I'll get into more detail about what I'd like to see happen in spring ball and the summer, and hopefully we'll finish strong on what is shaping up to be a nice recruiting class.

But for now I'll leave you with five keys to turning this thing around.

-De-emphasize the quarterback, re-emphasize the tailback

-Focus on player development

-Get that swagger back, legitimately

-Find the leaders who will insist on nothing less than success

-Evaluate the coaching staff, find a better mix

2008 in review: Glutton for punishment?

I was all set to write a long, fancy review of the 2008 season highlighted primarily by the frustrating turns, but then it hit me: I've already written them! All I had to do was go back and re-read the 12 game recaps from the regular season and pull the bullet points that best summed up this team.

God, was that depressing.

Even in victories, we showed fatal flaws. In losses, we showed only brief glimmers of promise.

Are you a glutton for punishment? Read on.

August 30 vs. Akron
My only thought ... is that I'm disappointed we left so many points on the board in the first half. It should have been 35-7 at halftime, not 17-10. Some guys have to tighten up their games.

We got away with this against Akron, but not against good teams.

September 6 vs. Marshall
What an atrocious start, absolutely embarrassing. ... Four penalties in the first six minutes. Failure by the defense to get off the field on third down. Little aggression or precision on offense.

Not the last time we heard those phrases ...

Didn't think we'd see John Clay again after his early fumble, but boy did he run well late. He's on his way to becoming the beast we've thought he could be.

Still think that ...

P.J. Hill's fumbles are starting to concern me, the first one more than the second. He's good enough to keep plays going with his feet and his drive, and that leads to him falling in awkward positions and leaving himself exposed to the types of hits like the one that caused the fumble.

Happened again against Florida State ...

September 13 vs. Fresno State
A disturbing trend in the second half was not running or throwing to receivers at first down yardage on third down.

That option that Evridge ran deep in Fresno territory was a curious call, although he ran it relatively effectively. But there was a holding call on it, not surprising.

Bringing in Clay when we did was a nice move, but why not keep feeding him the rock?

Like my friend said in November, Paul Chryst had a bad year ...

September 27 vs. Michigan
Run the ball every play in the second half. I'm serious. Without Beckum and Graham in there, Kyle Jefferson is the only primary receiver with dependable hands. Lance Kendricks, Nick Toon, and David Gilreath have all dropped decent passes thus far, with varying degrees of costliness. Allan Evridge has been serviceable, but few of the passing plays have looked smooth.

Few would all year long.

On one third-and-1 call we ran a terrible-looking play action pass. Run the ball behind our enormous line! Like the play call that Johnny Clay took down the the 5 -- that's a great call, well executed.

How many third-and-ones did we fail to convert? The one that really sticks in my craw is the option left where Evridge made a terrible pitch to P.J. Hill and we lost five yards on the play. Can you remember any time when we've run the option successfully on third-and-one? Or at any down and distance, for that matter? Me neither. So STOP RUNNING THE OPTION ON THIRD-AND-ONE, PAUL!

See above.

Then, after playing reasonably well but getting burned by his receivers, Evridge went scattershot. Inaccurate throws. Holding onto the ball too long. Not securing the ball under pressure. I was not ready to call quarterback play an Achilles' Heel for this team, but it is, big time.

Quarterback play killed us, and everything unraveled from there.

October 4 vs. Ohio State
The second half seemed to go by really fast, didn't it? It wasn't as decisive as in the loss at Michigan, but we were clearly outplayed in the second half again. That's three straight weeks, a disturbing trend.

This year's Badgers got thoroughly outplayed in the second half in all of their losses, all but one of them against good teams. Against bad teams we owned the second half, but that's not good enough. That has to change.

It was distressing that Pryor beat us on the final drive with his passing. ... OSU's receivers were wide open, even though we appeared to be dropping six or seven guys into coverage.

Happened again versus Florida State against another average passing quarterback.

Replays showed clearly how disorganized our defense was on Pryor's winning touchdown run. There's that leadership thing again -- get the guys lined up properly, or someone call a timeout and make sure everything is in order. (Burning two timeouts in the first 7:23 of the second half didn't help, either.)

Coaching, coaching, coaching.

October 11 vs. Penn State
Penn State is indeed a good team, but there's no reason we shouldn't be right there with them. But the Badgers continue to get burned by the little things.

And would continue to be burned by little things.

We've called out Allan Evridge and P.J. Hill, but how about Travis Beckum? ... He's still putting up good numbers when completely healthy, but he's not playing an all-around game.

A disappointing senior season for Travis, hopefully he goes on to a terrific professional career.

... on second-and-goal from the 1, we get called for 12 men in the huddle. Yeesh.

... it's third-and-20 for Penn State and we have them pinned deep in their own end, and Daryll Clark throws for 21 yards on the run, great pass and route. Another instance of not closing the deal.

Sort of like Carr's third-and-19 catch for 20 yards against FSU.

October 18 vs. Iowa
Watching the postgame on the Big Ten Network, I saw Bret Bielema's press conference. At one point he ended a sentence with "The team that's beating Wisconsin the most is Wisconsin."

Good call, dude.

Forget getting into the backfield and recording tackles for loss. These (defensive linemen) were getting dominated at the point of attack, putting all the pressure on our defensive backs to make saving tackles.

On Greene's second touchdown run, he broke about 73 tackles. ...

Actually, defensive line play and tackling were not chronic problems for this team, in my opinion.

October 25 vs. Illinois
Credit Mr. Man for pointing out that our defense is actually better built for stopping (the Spread) than we've been in the past ...

Too bad non-Spread teams gashed us.

Allen Langford ... had an Al Harris-type day in coverage. By that I mean he was consistently straddling the line between tight coverage and interference, and thank god those judgments went our way today.

Love Langford, gonna miss him.

Jay Valai ... set a physical tone with hits belying his 5-9 frame.

Love Valai, glad he's coming back.

Nice to see Garrett Graham get so heavily involved in the offense in the second half. If Beckum's out, Graham isn't a bad guy to have as a go-to receiver, even if it is for just 6-7 yards a pop.

Sherer's success next year starts with Graham.

Is it time yet to call for Bielema to give up coaching the special teams? Two weeks ago we give up a punt return touchdown. Last week a punt is blocked. Today Benn has a long kickoff return that leads to a field goal, and a penalty for lining up wrong on a punt. Time to let someone else worry about that.

Expect to hear this drum beat loudly in the offseason.

November 1 vs. Michigan State
I don't even know what to say. Seriously. This week after week of getting kicked in the balls by one thing after another is really starting to have a residual effect on my psyche.

Leinenkugel's dulls the pain of getting kicked in the balls repeatedly.

Mental errors have once again led to points by the opponent. The play call misunderstanding leads to Sherer's fumble which leads to a field goal. Levy's face mask leads to another field goal. This team just doesn't have the margin for error to be making those mistakes.

As heard on the Champs Sports Bowl postgame.

P.J. and Clay have had some nice runs, created by some nice blocking, but we still can't seem to get into a rhythm running the ball. What's it going to take? We need the run more than ever, especially considering our quarterback with, as Bentley accurately put it, a "bizarre throwing motion."

A running game rhythm is Job One for 2009. More on that later.

We ice the game with a rare third-and-1 conversion ... and a hold on Moffitt.

Why in the hell did Bielema call timeout when State was setting up for that last-second field goal? ... Maybe if he hadn't wasted our third timeout with that foolish challenge earlier in the half he could have called a third straight timeout.

November 8 vs. Indiana
So our offensive line, which was healthy last week finally, got two whole plays in today before Eric Vanden Heuvel was hurt. Turned out it didn't matter, but wouldn't it be nice if we were just at full strength for once?

They played pretty well together when all give guys were healthy.

November 15 vs. Minnesota
(At halftime, written in a Camp Randall bathroom) Nightmare: Only word to describe this latest fiasco. The lowlight is the Minnesota fan two rows behind us, in section R, row 40, seat 2, celebrating wildly Kyle Jefferson's injury. Here comes the ambulance ... Metaphor for the season.

I hope that guy is rotting in hell somewhere. It seemed like Kyle played against Florida State.

Can you ever remember a receiver having a career game that included three drops, including one for a sure-fire touchdown? Good for Isaac Anderson for shaking off the dropsies ...

When Niles Brinkley intercepted that pass on Minnesota's last possession and started running around, did anyone not think that, given the way this season has gone, he was going to fumble and the Gophers were going to drive down the field and either tie it or win it?

How about a rundown of some of the head-scratching mistakes we made? Clay's fumble. Shane Carter's offside penalty on the Gophers' two-point conversion (come on man, think!). Dustin Sherer taking that sack when he was out of the pocket with a clear lane to throw the ball into the stands! The blown coverages that led to Minnesota's second and third touchdowns. Allowing that fourth-and-18 conversion. Blowing more third-and-shorts. The botched field goal attempt that would have put us up 10-0.

November 22 vs. Cal Poly
What were you thinking when O'Brien Schofield jumped offside on that field goal attempt, which allowed Poly to convert on fourth-and-1 and eventually score a touchdown? Or when Nick Toon couldn't haul in that nice pass from Sherer later in the fourth quarter?

UW-Florida State thoughts

Just read lonebadger's comment on the halftime post, and wanted to throw this statement out there to start the recap.

I am not embarrassed by this loss.

Agree or disagree.

Florida State was the better team and deserved to win this game. But they sure as hell weren't 29 points better, and with the exception of a couple plays proved the Badgers belonged on the same field as the team almost everyone picked to beat them.

Because, at the risk of being That Guy Who Bitches About The Officiating, if two calls go our way, this thing doesn't snowball out of control into a rout. If two calls go our way, we stay with our effective game plan and who knows what happens.

One of the calls was questionable, the other outright horrible.

-The first came when Jay Valai appeared to have created a turnover, either an interception or a fumble, off a Ponder pass. The ultimate call may very well have been the correct one -- the replays did not seem to indicate either way -- but my question is if the call on the field is Wisconsin ball, how did those replays show enough visual evidence to overturn the call?

As we know, FSU then went on a painfully long touchdown drive in which our secondary seemed to forget Carr was out there. That third-and-19 conversion where Carr was open for 20 was just inexcusable, we didn't have a guy within five yards of him. He absolutely ate us alive.

Florida State's offensive line also played much better in the second half.

-So that touchdown made it 21-6, even after P.J. fumbled, we held them, and a methodical drive running the ball could have made it a one-score game. Instead, Graham Gano slips after punting and Louis Nzegwu gets flagged -- not just for running into the kicker, but for roughing the kicker, a 15-yarder. When he didn't even touch the kicker!!!

Worst call I've seen in quite some time. The ref was right there. What was even more galling was Gano laughing his ass off on the sideline afterward, and the announcing crew laughing along with him. FSU scored quickly thereafter and the game was over.

If those two plays go our way, or even one of those two, the complexion of the game is totally different. We're not forced to pass and allow Florida State's defensive line to tee off on Sherer, leading to another FSU defensive touchdown. We can keep running the ball, and we've got a chance.

Add that to the two frustrating things from my halftime post, and winning was a impossibility. As Lucas and Lepay just said on the postgame, this team isn't good enough to overcome its mistakes against good teams.

So I disagree with lonebadger, I don't think this team quit. I think the accumulation of unfortunate events of this game, maybe from this entire season, overwhelmed them against a team that had the talent to take advantage. Whether or not that's quitting is up for debate, but those last few touchdowns the Seminoles scored would have been allowed by a lot of teams.

-Seems that Gano was named player of the game, what a joke. His punts in the first half were tremendous, but Florida State never scored as a result of the field position he gave them. I suppose his non-collision with Nzegwu was a turning point in the game, but there were probably five Seminoles more deserving of the honor.

-P.J.'s key fumble looked familiar -- he's fighting for extra yards, gets bent in an awkward position and gets hammered. Not sure why he ends up exposing himself like that so often, but it would be nice if he'd stop.

But he had a nice game with 9.3 yards per carry, 139 total yards. I really hope he comes back, he and Clay will be a terrific 1-2 punch next year.

-I liked that we ran the ball on our first 17 first downs. That's what we have to get back to: Line up and pound the rock. Here it comes, if you can stop it, more power to you.

-How many unsportsmanlike conduct or personal foul penalties did Florida State end up with? Classy.

-One of the gomers in the booth screamed "They have not seen this kind of speed!" during Florida State's second fumble return. Bull. Penn State was every bit as fast as Florida State (similar results against Wisconsin), and Ohio State was on defense. Overall, FSU was probably the fourth-best team we played this year, throwing Iowa ahead of them as well.

On this speed thing: Florida State was indeed quicker, but that didn't decide the game. It was Carr, who is no burner, galloping to wide-open spots in our defense. It was our offense being forced into predictable situations by a large deficit. Or it was our offense getting too cute.

When we ran the ball straight ahead, we did very well. That was how we could negate their speed advantage. Unfortunately external forces got us out of that strategy.

The constant harping on the speed disparity between the teams, both before and during the game, was lazy reporting and analysis.

-As predicted by our Florida State friends our tight end was able to do some things, as Graham had 62 yards receiving.

-Nice to see us get a touchdown at the end, Sherer made a nice pass to Elijah Theus.

-Was glad to see Bielema let the seniors finish the game on defense, they deserved to see it through. This was a disappointing season, and a disappointing end to it, but those guys gave a lot to this program.

I've got plenty more thoughts on this season on the whole, and the state of the program, that I'll write about in the days to come. For now, I'll just spend Saturday night disappointed for the sixth time in the last three months.

UW-Florida State halftime thoughts

I am absolutely seething right now. At worst, this game has been a draw. At best, we've outplayed Florida State, especially given the field position we had for much of the first half.

And yet they lead 14-3. Unreal ... story of the season. The Badgers came in talking about playing a clean game, and for the most part have, but two big gaffes account for the deficit.

-The play call on the Nicholson fumble return baffles me. We're jamming the ball down their throats, passing to Graham effectively. So what do you do? Split P.J. wide in what Matt LePay just called a "gimmick formation" and try to run a play you haven't run all season. Nice call. Granted, FSU's guy made a nice play to knock it down, but that play should never have been called. It seemed like a backwards lateral at the time, but I would have liked to see more than one replay, and would liked to have seen Bielema challenge the call. Their offense isn't doing anything, so why not?

-FSU's second touchdown, a tremendous catch by Carr, doesn't happen if we show some common sense with clock management at the end of the half. After a first down run, the call is for passes and second and third down? You really think you're going to go 70 yards on that defense in a minute? The play calling saved Florida State a timeout, gave them a few yards of field position, and allowed that score. Very frustrating.

Elsewhere ...

-I see our guys were engaged in pregame jawing with Seminole players at midfield, don't think I've ever seen our guys do that before. Comes with the territory when you play teams from Florida, apparently.

-Surprised there are so many empty seats in the upper deck. Florida State has a lot of fans there, but they seem about as excited about this bowl as our fans do.

-Tell you what: It's awesome to hear that Tomahawk Chop song and hear the chanting during one of our games. That's college football.

-One of the first half highlights was when the microphones for ESPN's announcers went out and we could watch the game with just crowd noise.

-That said, Paul Maguire made a rare excellent point near the end of the first half when he said something like "If I were Bret Bielema I would take all of my passing plays and throw them out the window. You're running the ball for five and a half yards a carry, keep doing it." No kidding! We can run on these guys -- it's not going to be a dominant running performance, but it can be effective. We are obviously not going to pass the ball with any regularity.

-Florida State's offensive line is really small, they look like our fullbacks and tight ends. Our defensive line has really gotten the better of them so far. Matt Shaughnessy is playing especially well in his final game as a Badger. We're doing a nice job of hitting Christian Ponder, got to keep it up.

-It seems that Florida State's wide receivers are yelling at Ponder a lot when his throws are off target, which is often. It seems that our defensive backs have been covering fairly well too, Carr's touchdown catch notwithstanding.

-Graham Gano's punting is ridiculous, those have to been the three best consecutive punts any punter has ever kicked.

-Brad Nortman acquitted himself pretty well too, nice to see his hang time improving. The kick coverage has been pretty good so far, and it seems like the regular lineup of backups is out there.

-Dustin Sherer handled himself with poise in those three possessions that started in the shadow of his own goalpost.

We can win this game. Obviously 7-3, or 3-0, would be better halftime scores, but given that FSU hasn't shown hints that they can drive the ball down the field, we just need two good drives and a clean second half.

I would be perfectly happy if we didn't throw the ball the rest of this game.

Offensive

Was watching an ESPN bowl preview last night and the guys were pretty overwhelmingly pro-Florida State in their prognostications. In their view, FSU's defense is going to be way too much for us to handle, and their offensive line is like nothing we've seen. The viewers agreed, with 81% calling a Seminole win.

Underdogs baby!

Rich from Chant Rant asked me to give him an overview of our offense with key players, and the below is what I came up with. What do you think, am I close in my assessment?

Overview
For a long time we were run, run, run, but offensive coordinator Paul Chryst has done a nice job of balancing us out. This year, that didn't turn out so hot because of limitations at quarterback.

We're still at our best when we pound the rock behind our large offensive line and keep the passing to unpredictable downs and distances. The run game still functions best between the tackles, although this year converting on third-and-short has been a struggle.

The passing game relies heavily on the tight end, even with injuries to top guys there. The wide receivers are young and developing, but several came up with big performances late in the season. We don't run any Spread, and little if any shotgun.

Most passing plays are at least seven-step drops. We still use a fullback a lot, and have two seniors there. You'll see a lot of two-tight end sets, even with our injuries. At times we'll play a third tackle in obvious running situations.

Quarterback
Dustin Sherer took over midseason for turnover machine Allan Evridge. He struggled a lot at first, showing the rust of not starting for four years. He has a funny throwing motion and low release point, and sometimes tries to force throws into impossible spots or make plays when throwing the ball away would be more prudent. Other times he makes plays with his feet and his throws get exactly where they need to be. He makes me nervous as hell every time he drops back, but he's the best we've got at the moment.

Running back
Junior P.J. Hill ran for 1,000 yards for the third straight season, but for the third straight season was injury-prone. He's a solid back who has improved the shape of his body from really doughy to just kind of doughy, but he finishes runs well, can catch out of the backfield, and pass block. Sometimes he dances too much rather than hitting holes hard.

Redshirt freshman John Clay is the guy many Badger fans want to see get the lion's share of the carries. He's 6-2, 230 and fast, and at times has had troubles with ball security and running too high. But he hits the hole with authority and seems to make more things happen than Hill. Either way, a good 1-2 punch. Florida native Zach Brown is #3 on the depth chart and sees time on third downs. With Clay's emergence he hasn't seen as much time as anticipated, but had some great moments last year as a freshman.

Chris Pressley and Bill Rentmeester are the fullbacks, and are pretty much just extra guards.

Receiver
Tight end Travis Beckum was an All-American candidate coming into the season but suffered through an injury-plagued season before breaking his leg against Illinois. The next week against Michigan State promising tight end Lance Kendricks also broke his leg. This leaves tight end Garrett Graham, an all-conference pick, as our top remaining threat. As you can see, we were as deep at tight end as anyone, and even with the injuries to Beckum and Kendricks, we're still solid there. Mickey Turner is the blocking tight end.

Wide receiver was a question mark coming into the season, and only late in the season did they start making plays consistently. David Gilreath is small but quick. We run a lot of end-arounds to him, and he had over 100 yards rushing against Indiana. Nick Toon is Al Toon's son, and has the prototype build. Isaac Anderson's dad played collegiately at Minnesota, and he's starting to show consistency. My sense is they'll have trouble getting open against the Florida State secondary.

Offensive line
Long a strong point in our program, our line was good again this year, but not as good as billed. Again, injuries played a part, but they were probably slightly overrated to begin with. At left tackle, sophomore Gabe Carimi is an up-and-comer, an athletic 6-8 kid with good feet. They try to get him out blocking little guys on the perimeter like Joe Thomas did. Left guard Andy Kemp is solid, he pulls a lot, even in short-yardage situations. Center John Moffitt is a charismatic, emerging emotional leader who has taken some costly holding penalties this season. He also pulls.

Right guard Kraig Urbik was probably the most consistent lineman, he's a four-year starter. Right tackle Eric Vanden Heuvel is huge, more of a run blocker than anything. None of them are All-Americans, and when one or two of them were hurt this season the offense sputtered, but when they were all together they run- and pass-blocked effectively. Josh Oglesby is the third tackle, he was the top-rated recruit at the position coming out of high school two years ago, but struggled pass blocking at times this year replacing Carimi and Vanden Heuvel when they were injured.

Kicker
Freshman Philip Welch is our kicker, and has done a great job replacing standout Taylor Mehlhaff. His kickoffs are on the short side, but he's been steady on field goals and extra points.

Recapping the stats

Way back on September 22, I wrote this post:

Now that I've numbed you all to sleep with four days of numbers — hey, wake up! — I'm going to tie it all up with the statistical thresholds I believe the Badgers need to hit for 2008 to be a great season.

OFFENSE
50 rushing attempts per game
245 rushing yards per game (4.9 yards per carry)
47% third-down conversion percentage
1.2 turnovers per game
30 points per game

DEFENSE
35 rushing attempts per game
120 rushing yards per game (3.4 yards per carry)
215 passing yards per game
37% third-down allowance percentage
2.5 turnovers per game
16 points per game

If time permits, I'll compare each week's performance to these standards, and hopefully keep a running total on how we're doing. Of course, if we lose three of our next four, I'll start writing about recruiting and whether Dustin Sherer or Curt Phillips will be starting at quarterback in 2009.

We all know what happened -- lost the next four, talking about Dustin Sherer replacing Allan Evridge, and whether or not Curt Phillips can take the job next season. Sigh.

But how did the Badgers do in these stat categories? Let's see how it stacks up against my prescription for success.

OFFENSE
44 rushing attempts per game - low
212 rushing yards per game (4.8 yards per carry) - low
39% third-down conversion percentage - low
2.25 turnovers per game - high -- double!
28.7 points per game - close

DEFENSE
34.3 rushing attempts per game - close
133.2 rushing yards per game (3.9 yards per carry) - high
189.1 passing yards per game - low
38% third-down allowance percentage - close
1.8 turnovers per game - low
25.2 points per game - way high

So, as if it wasn't going to be painfully obvious, the Badgers fell short of greatness in just about every key statistical category this season. Turnovers were the biggest problem -- 16 lost fumbles, 25 overall!

What we ended up with was a slightly-better-than-average team with no wins over good teams. Here's hoping for more next year.

Bowl practice goals

As the Badgers' season turned into a struggle just to become bowl-eligible, much was made of the importance of the extra practices that come with playing in a bowl game. "It's like another spring practice" they say, although I find that hard to believe it's as effective.

Coaches give guys off for awhile after the last regular season game. Then practice attendance is spotty during finals time. So it's not like the kids are getting solid, uninterrupted practice time.

But it's better than not getting any additional time, and given what we're staring at next season, the practices are imperative for keeping our bowl streak alive in 2009. Here's what I'd like to see addressed in December:

Quarterback
Dustin Sherer played much better as time wore on, seemingly shaking off the rust. Outside factors played a role. The schedule got easier; the wide receivers -- Isaac Anderson, Nick Toon, David Gilreath -- all grew up to an extent; Travis Beckum's season-ending injury forced him to look for other guys.

Still, I think we all want to see what Curt Phillips can do. From the little we've seen of him, he seems like a kid who can make plays with his feet, a skill that will come in handy behind an inexperienced offensive line next season.

Should Phillips be getting more work than Sherer in bowl practices? I say no. After such a disappointing season, we need to win the bowl game, and getting Sherer as prepared as possible is important. Phillips will benefit from the experience, and maybe you give him some of the backup reps, but at quarterback, prepare for the bowl game first, not 2009.

Offensive line
Kraig Urbik, Andy Kemp, and Eric Vanden Heuvel all depart after this season, leaving behind just Gabe Carimi and John Moffitt. Who will be the new starters at left guard, right guard, and right tackle next season?

There are plenty of good candidates. At tackle, Josh Oglesby got off to a good start but struggled later. Jake Bscherer has the credentials and spent this year redshirting so he could retain eligibility once EVH and Urbik left.

At guard, we've got Kevin Zeitler, Bill Nagy, and Jake Current. Nagy seems to have a leg up here, having played extensively this year when injuries hit. I could see Oglesby sliding inside to guard, as most of his struggles this year stemmed from dealing with speed edge rushers.

In any event, the path to sorting out which of these five guys ends up in those three spots starts now.

Defensive line
I am worried sick about our '09 prospects at this position. Who replaces Matt Shaughnessy, Jason Chapman, and Mike Newkirk? I feel OK about defensive end. Louis Nzegwu will be OK, sort of like O'Brien Schofield was this year.

It's tackle that looks bleaker. Right now the incumbents would be Patrick Butrum and Jeff Stehle. Neither one stood out in their playing time this season. Dan Moore needs to show he can play tackle, which is where he was recruited to play.

Someone from the group of Eriks Briedis, Anthony Mains, Brendan Kelly, J.J. Watt, and Tyler Westphal has to emerge as a contributor. I like Watt, seeing him at Family Day he looked the part. Briedis and Mains had nice frames for tackle as well, Kelly was drawing positive reviews in fall practice, and Westphal was the most highly-recruited of this bunch.

Unlike quarterback, where I feel Sherer needs all of the work to get ready for the bowl game, on the D-Line the focus on the future needs to start now.

Sunday morning thoughts: Graham Harrell a Badger?

Texas Tech did get embarrassed last night by Oklahoma, but anyone who's seen the Raiders play this year has to be impressed by Graham Harrell. The other day I was reading Sports Illustrated, a story about all the great quarterbacks in the Big 12, and it casually mentioned that coming out of high school Harrell chose Tech over, among several other schools, Wisconsin.

Really?!?

Seeing how he's thrived in Mike Leach's pass-happy offense, it's hard to see how Harrell would have ever considered playing for the Badgers. Maybe the fact that we have more quarterbacks in the NFL than Tech is a bigger drawing card than we think!

But imagine Harrell had ended up in Madison for his college ball. It's not a stretch to think that we'd be in contention for a BCS bowl today, warts and all. I'll go into it more later, but looking back on this season, it's apparent that subpar quarterback play sparked the negative momentum that snowballed mid-season and threatened to turn it into an outright disaster. Thankfully Dustin Sherer and the receivers have improved to the point where this year has just been disappointing, ending in a bowl game but not the one we'd hoped for.

Again, though, imagine if Graham Harrell had been slinging balls for Paul Chryst's offense for these past few years ...

Big Ten thoughts:

1. Penn State. They deserve to be ranked higher nationally.

2. Iowa. This one's shocking to me, kudos to Kirk Ferentz for turning the program around after several years of decline. Let's see if they can keep it up.

3. Ohio State. To me, they don't deserve a BCS bowl bid, but I'm hoping they get it to improve our holiday destination.

4. Michigan State. Never a legitimate contender, shouldn't have beaten us, but in a break from the past, they stopped beating themselves and took care of business on a regular basis. Too bad we couldn't say the same about ourselves.

5. Northwestern.

6. Wisconsin. Hard to believe that ending up middle of the pack would be okay, but given how we were feeling about things after that Michigan State loss, I'll take it.

7. Minnesota. Does Brew really have them on the right track, or did they just get back to where they were under Glen Mason: padding their record against a weak non-conference schedule, beating the conference's weaklings, and winning a game or two they shouldn't have.

8. Illinois. This was the Goofs' signature win, remember? The one that had fans lobbying Joel Maturi to extend Brew's contract -- against a team that finished 5-7. The Illini arguably underachieved even more than we did this season, which has to be disconcerting for their fans considering the Zooker's track record. That much talent shouldn't lose seven games.

9. Purdue. Not the fate Joe Tiller deserved, he made that program relevant again and invigorated Big Ten offenses.

10. Michigan. Did you see where Rich Rodriguez said he didn't realize Michigan had so little talent coming back and if he had, he might not have taken the job? Way to throw your players under the bus, jerk! Add that to the fact Michigan didn't seem to do its homework regarding Red Wristband's buyout from West Virginia, and you have a stunningly comprehensive lack of due diligence for a high profile job opening. Hopefully these bad vibes continue for RichRod.

11. Indiana. Guess they didn't defend The Rock very well this year, whatever that is.

UW-Cal Poly thoughts: Poor Andrew Gardner

Let's just start off by saying that I feel absolutely awful for Andrew Gardner. That would have been a monumental win for Cal Poly, but instead they come up a point short. Here's hoping they go on to win the I-AA national championship so that kid, and the rest of the team, has nothing but good memories from this season.

Those were pretty bad kicks, though. On the field goal attempt at the end of regulation their coach seemed to mouth "you've got to be kidding me."

As for the game in general, I don't feel bad at all about needing overtime to beat that team. We did not play poorly. They have great athletes and a unique scheme that they execute really well. Our offensive coaches found ways to exploit their weaknesses, particularly in the passing game, and the running game got it going at just the right time.

After a season full of Wisconsin finding ways to lose it should have won, it was refreshing to see the Badgers find a way to win a game they probably should have lost.

-The lasting impression of this game I'll take with me is Andy Kemp after the game-winning extra point, ripping off his helmet and running down the field in celebration. These seniors deserved to go out with a win.

-Boy did John Clay and P.J. Hill run hard in the second half, those were some tough runs that they finished with authority. P.J. went over 1,000 yards today, fourth year in a row.

-Kudos to Dustin Sherer for a game well-played. He took what was there -- which was a lot -- and while better passes could probably have resulted in quicker scores, he still made most of the completions.

-Speaking of quicker scores, can you remember a game in which we were on the negative side of the time of possession ledger to such an extent? Poly's ability to grind the ball in modest but consistent increments, and our ability to hit big plays, led to that disparity. I'd rather not see it again.

-My favorite player of this season will probably end up being Allen Langford. That overtime touchdown catch by Barden aside, he played another good game, limiting a receiver with more physical ability with technique and strength. A good guy for Niles Brinkley, Mario Goins, and Aaron Henry to learn from.

-What were you thinking when O'Brien Schofield jumped offside on that field goal attempt, which allowed Poly to convert on fourth-and-1 and eventually score a touchdown? Or when Nick Toon couldn't haul in that nice pass from Sherer later in the fourth quarter.

-Too bad so many people missed that ending, either because they left early or never came in the first place. Great game.

-Cal Poly may have been able to finish in the middle of the Big Ten pack this year. Off the top of my head only Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Iowa are clearly better.

-Football goes to overtime against Cal Poly, basketball against Iona. Eye openers when people see the scores on the Bottom Line, but at least we won.

-We should be in line for a nicer-than-deserved bowl game, but of even greater importance will be the extra practice opportunity. We're losing a lot of guys next season, and the replacements need a lot of work, especially along both lines.

Three wins in a row to close the regular season, and one more game, hopefully against a team we haven't played before or recently. We can all take a deep breath ... and start worrying about the basketball team.

UW-Minnesota preview

It would be easy to look at this game, if you're a Badger fan, and be really confident. After all, UW ran for over 400 yards Saturday, and Minnesota has looked pretty mediocre the past few weeks while threatening to squander its 7-1 start and end up in a familiar bowl destination -- Detroit. What's more, their best player, Eric Decker, is out, which means Badger DBs don't necessarily have to wear cups.

Maybe it's the Bob Bummer in me, but I don't see this being a one-sided game. Here's why:

-Our success came against a severely depleted Indiana team. The confidence the offense took away from that game is big, but executing the same basic plays probably won't yield the same boffo results against Minnesota. I sure as hell don't expect David Gilreath to carry the ball eight times again.

-Much of Minnesota's early success this season came from forcing turnovers. We have been, to put it politely, turnover-prone this season. I'm penciling Dustin Sherer in for two interceptions, which may or may not be costly.

-As Clint Brewster was quick to remind Taylor Mehlhaff, last year the Gophers played us much closer than they should have, given how rotten they were. This leads me to believe that Tim Brewster, for as much crap I throw his way for being something of a used-car salesmen in football coach's gear, is an above-average motivator who isn't going to let his team's recent skid spiral out of control. Especially in what is arguably the biggest rivalry game for both schools.

-Decker's out, but they get Ralph Spry back.

-Their running game is showing life with this Eskridge guy. I'm worried about Jae McFadden, who said he's ready to play Indiana tomorrow. Dude, check that concussion again. The defense ain't the same with Culmer St. Jean in the middle.

Still think we're going to win, but unlike previous Wisconsin-Minnesota games at Camp Randall, think it's going to be close. Unlike last year, we seem to have an idea of what to do against the Spread, which is nice. I don't see it being the high-scoring affair common in this series this century.

Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 16

How good are the Gophers?

I ask not sarcastically but seriously. Because Minnesota's turnaround from last year's one-year disaster has been a popular talking point around college football, and Tim Brewster has been mentioned as a coach of the year candidate.

Looking closer, it appears:

-The Gophers were probably better last year than their one win indicated, although not by much.

-The Gophers are the beneficiary of a favorable non-conference schedule and Big Ten schedule that is missing two of the conference's three best teams. The non-conference wins came against Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Montana State, and Florida Atlantic. Northern and MSU are the Gophers' only two victims with winning records.

In the Big Ten, Minnesota has beaten Indiana, which is awful; Purdue, which is almost as bad; and Illinois, which just lost to Western Michigan. (Granted, Wisconsin's resume is similarly skimpy, but that's not the point of this discussion.)

-The Gophers are adding more talent and should return to being the formidable border rival they were during the best Glen Mason years.

-Adam Weber has progressed nicely from his freshman season, cutting his interception down to five thus far after 19 last year. The good thing is we're looking far better against the Spread this season than we have in the past. Weber did a lot of good things against us in the Dome last year.

-The Gophers have been getting attention for forcing a lot of turnovers on defense, but their performance against a thoroughly mediocre Michigan offense shows that they are far from impenetrable. Their defense actually yields 27 yards per game more than their offense gains.

(Like us in Ann Arbor, Minnesota has to have a "will we ever?" outlook on its series with Michigan right about now.)

I'm guessing that we'll be able to run on them, not like we did last year or last week against Indiana, but still, run effectively. Given that Minnesota's DBs seem opportunistic and I still get scared every time Dustin Sherer drops back, running the ball about 60 times is my prescription for success.

-Minnesota changes its uniforms as often as West Bend East High School, with similar results. You're not Oregon, guys, pick a combination and go with it.

UW-Indiana thoughts

Finally, a nice relaxing Saturday where the Badgers score a comfortable win. Indiana is bad, and the few talented players they do have are hurt or hurting, but we took care of business with a dominant performance.

Six-hundred total yards. Three 100-yard rushers. Fifty-five points. Every last one of those things is important -- it reminds these guys that when they play to their potential, it takes a helluva team to stop them. The Hoosiers were not close to being that team today.

-When did I say David Gilreath isn't fast? He isn't a traditional burner, but on that 90-yard touchdown run he looked plenty fast. Otherwise he was remarkably shifty and efficient, and Indiana remarkably inept, on that end-around Paul Chryst kept calling. The best game of Gilreath's career (that punt return fumble aside), much welcomed.

That 90-yarder was a thing of beauty, from the blocking to Gilreath's inside deke that froze the Indiana DB just enough to let him sprint to the end zone.

-When P.J. Hill is at his best, his dancing results in better-than-expected runs. When his dancing isn't working ... well, that didn't happen today so let's just enjoy it. P.J. was at his best, showing patience, balance, strength, and bust. Two good games in a row, and 1,000 yards is actually within reach for him now.

-Still love what John Clay is bringing to the table. He chews up yardage with his long strides, and he shows great athleticism, like when he hurdled that guy today. The coaches still need to figure out a rotation that works out well for both Clay and Hill. P.J. was in a groove in the first quarter but had only one carry in the second.

-And what about Zach Brown? That fourth down catch he made in the first quarter was important for getting us off on the right foot and ensuring we played with the lead all day. I've never see that route out of our offense; maybe from Brian Calhoun.

-Thank got the Big Ten Network didn't have a better view of Chappell's fumble late in the first half. I thought that a different camera angle might have shown that his knee was down. The play stood, and we never looked back from there. Great play by Jay Valai to force the fumble.

-So our offensive line, which was healthy last week finally, got two whole plays in today before Eric Vanden Heuvel was hurt. Turned out it didn't matter, but wouldn't it be nice if we were just at full strength for once?

-Gilreath's first touchdown was called a run, but was actually a pass that turned out to be a lateral. That play earlier was not completed and was a live ball. Better execution would make that a slightly forward pass.

-The backup defensive linemen played well. Dan Moore got a good push. Patrick Butrym made a nice play on a fourth-and-1 stop. Jeff Stehle had a sack late.

-Was it just me, or did Bret Bielema's coat seem like the kind you can get for $10 at Steve and Barry's?

-BTN color analyst Chris Martin was using his full vocabulary today. Particularly impressive was when he described Indiana's wide receivers as "linear" who gave Hoosier quarterbacks a good "catching radius." Huh? I guess most receivers are ... non-linear? And lesser receivers give their quarterbacks ... a catching circumference? Leave it to a Northwestern guy to bring these words to a football broadcast.

-Our kickoffs and kickoff coverage were decidedly mediocre. And what was Mario Goins doing fielding kicks? Let Gilreath handle them all, and block, Mario.

-Other lowlights: Matt Shaughnessy roughing the passer, handing Indiana three points; Dustin Sherer's interception was a terrible pass; a delay of game call after an incomplete pass; 12 men on the field on a late Indiana punt. Thankfully the Hoosiers were bad enough that these weren't critical, but don't let the score fool you, the mistakes are still there.

This win was bittersweet. Again, the opponent was lacking, but it showed that we were capable of overcoming sometimes sloppy play to win in dominating fashion. That hasn't happened much this year.

Now let's keep that Axe!

UW-Michigan State halftime thoughts

Pretty good first half. Feels like we should be up by more, but I'll take a lead. Ringer hasn't gone off yet, and if we can hold the lead their ability to ride just him is diminished.

-Glad we got points off that last drive, but why spike it with 24 seconds left and two timeouts? Then you have only two shots at a touchdown.

-Made a note that it was good to get Lance Kendricks involved early. Then he goes down in a most bizarre way. Hopefully he'll be okay for next week and the rest of the season. If not, what was a position of extreme depth two months ago is now painfully shallow.

-Ringer has 10 carries for 27 yards. Even if he gets to 25 carries for 100 yards, we should have a shot to win this thing.

-Glad to see Gilreath making plays again. Ray Bentley was talking about him as a big-play guy, and I guess he's our best best, but he doesn't seem that fast, does he?

-Our punt return unit doesn't block opposing gunners very well, does it? Gilreath is either fair catching or catching and getting immediately hit almost every time back.

-The touchdown drive culminating in Sherer's pass to Graham was a total team effort. First, the punt coverage team downs Nortman's kick at the 2. Then the defense forces a three and out. Then a series of nice running plays sets up the play action scoring call. Well done.

-Nice start by Shaughnessy, who is lining up at both sides of the line. That play where he pushed two blockers back into Ringer for a big loss was awesome.

-Our third-and-1 impotence is driving me nuts.

-Mental errors have once again led to points by the opponent. The play call misunderstanding leads to Sherer's fumble which leads to a field goal. Levy's face mask leads to another field goal. This team just doesn't have the margin for error to be making those mistakes.

-P.J. and Clay have had some nice runs, created by some nice blocking, but we still can't seem to get into a rhythm running the ball. What's it going to take? We need the run more than ever, especially considering our quarterback with, as Bentley accurately put it, a "bizarre throwing motion."

How about a 100-yard rusher?

You want to hear something disturbing? The Badgers haven't had a 100-yard rushing game from a running back since P.J. Hill went for 112 against Fresno State. John Clay has come close the last two weeks with 89 and 88 yards, but come on. This is Wisconsin football for Pete's sake! That's five games, five loooooooong games of watching a rushing attack bordering on impotence.

How's this for a misleading statistic: Wisconsin ranks 22nd in the nation in rushing. The 404 yards against Akron probably helped, no?

Odds are against us having a 1,000-yard rusher this season. That used to be one of my favorite traditions, until it was shattered by Anthony Davis's fragility. Brian Calhoun got the ball rolling again and P.J. kept it going, but again, injuries to backs combined with injuries on the offensive line make it tough sledding. (Granted, P.J. does need only 387 yards to reach 1,000, but his injuries and Clay's emergence conspire against him, as does the fact that a bowl game is inexplicably not a given.)

Conversely, Javon Ringer is averaging 152.6 yards per game, on 33 carries per game. Those are Ron Dayne numbers for a relatively little guy!

My thinking is that, like Shonn Greene for Iowa a couple weeks ago, Ringer's going to get his. Last week's defensive performance against Illinois was impressive, but as has been pointed out, our defense is better suited to play the Spread than power offenses nowadays.

Hopefully we can make some game-changing plays in their passing game. Brian Hoyer seems like a decent quarterback, albeit one who probably isn't going to beat you by himself. The receivers seem pedestrian.

In order to pull this one out, I think Hoyer has to turn the ball over once or twice, we have to hold Ringer to about his average, and Dustin Sherer has to take care of the ball and make one or two plays.

Oh, and a 100-yard rusher would be nice. As for a score? Drum roll please for Bob Bummer:

Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 16