Academic All-Big Ten Badgers

Let's step away from the field for a moment and give credit to to the Badger football players who earned academic All-Big Ten honors:

Zach Brown, Gabe Carimi, Nate Emanuel, Bradie Ewing, Antonio Fenelus, Matthew Groff, Will Hartmann, Jordan Hein, Aaron Henry, Tyler Holland, Peter Konz, Andrew Lukasko, Prince Moody, Brad Nortman, Chukwuma Offor, Curt Phillips, Devin Smith, Blake Sorensen, Scott Tolzien, Mickey Turner, J.J. Watt, Drew Woodward.

That's eight starters, five key reserves, and a smattering of special teams contributors. Nice work in the classroom, fellas!

Actual all-conference Badgers

So how did I do? Not bad. Underestimated John Moffitt, Jay Valai and Brad Nortman. Happy to be right on the rest.

LB Chris Borland, Fr.
Big Ten Freshman of the Year (media and coaches)
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Lots of very good linebackers in the Big Ten, couldn't see him any higher than HM.

T Gabe Carimi, Jr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media)
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
So the coaches think someone named Dennis Landolt from Penn State is better than Gabe? Huh.

RB John Clay, So.
Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year (media and coaches)
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)

TE Garrett Graham, Sr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media)
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
Tony Moeaki being chosen over him on the coaches first team is a joke.

S Chris Maragos, Sr.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Big Ten Sportsmanship honoree
I like the sportsmanship award more than the HM. Great honor for another great walk-on story.

G John Moffitt, Jr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Who'd have thought the public face/mouth of the program would be a guard?

P Brad Nortman, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (coaches)
I nitpick with him, but Brad was very solid this year, few worries about him.

DE O’Brien Schofield, Sr.
First-team All-Big Ten (media and coaches)
Very surprised that both OB and Jared Odrick were first team picks over Ryan Kerrigan and the Ohio State guys.

QB Scott Tolzien, Jr.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (coaches)

WR Nick Toon, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media and coaches)

S Jay Valai, Jr.
Second-team All-Big Ten (coaches)
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media)

DE J.J. Watt, So.
Honorable mention All-Big Ten (media)

Also of interest:

-Ohio State's defense had one first team pick, Kurt Coleman.

-The coaches made Juice Williams an HM pick. Huh?

-The media made Terrelle Pryor an HM pick. Huh? The Juice/Pryor guys must have cast their votes in August.

-There weren't many top-flight running backs in the conference this season.

-Here's my favorite selection: Eric Decker was a Sportsmanship Award honoree by the coaches. Apparently no one asked Jack Ikegwuonu or his testicles.

All-conference Badgers

The Big Ten will reveal its all-conference football teams tonight, and Wisconsin should be better-represented than last year, when Allen Langford and Garrett Graham were the only two all-league Badgers. Here's how I see our potential selections breaking down.

First team
John Clay -- No brainer, leads the conference in rushing and touchdowns. Should be offensive player of the year. (Aside: it's sort of hilarious that Terrelle Pryor and Juice Williams were the odds-on picks for offensive player of the year in the preseason, isn't it?)

Gabe Carimi -- Best lineman on the league's highest-scoring offense.

Garrett Graham -- Easily the best receiving tight end in the conference, also an asset in the run game.

O'Brien Schofield -- Started really hot, and though he didn't maintain his breakneck pace as the competition stiffened, he set the tone early for a defense which exceeded expectations this year. Part of me fears that he may get lost in the shuffle of all the Big Ten's excellent defensive linemen -- Brandon Graham, Ryan Kerrigan, Adrian Clayborn, Ohio State's guys -- but OB should be one of the top four.

Honorable mention
Scott Tolzien -- Had a really nice season. Other quarterbacks may have better numbers and may be more dynamic, but I'm happy with our guy.

Nick Toon -- If he played in an offense that passed more, or on a team that was behind more, his numbers would be much better and he'd be a first teamer.

Chris Maragos -- Had four interceptions and played really well, but there were at least four better defensive backs in the league this year.

J.J. Watt -- Nice debut. With Schofield gone next year expect him to elevate his game.

Chris Borland -- Can you choose a special teams player who isn't a returner or kicker? If they have a plcae for someone like this, Borland makes it. Second in the league in forced fumbles and tied for first in fumbles recovered despite only starting a handful of games. A playmaker.

John Moffitt -- A second guy from the line that led the league's top rushing attack ought to earn some sort of all-conference honors. But who? Moffitt? Josh Oglesby? Peter Konz? Kevin Zeitler? I probably picked Moffitt because he's so gregarious, but despite some rocky moments he has opened plenty of holes on the left side and pulling right.

Hopefully I forgot a guy or two, and of these second-tier guys get bumped up, but either way there have been plenty of individual performances to be happy with this year.

UW-Michigan thoughts

That was exactly the second half we were looking for! I could not be more pleased with the win -- defense played well enough, offense was in control when the game mattered, lots of guys got involved. Always good to beat Michigan, which will probably be back at some point in the near future. They've got some good playmakers, but a lot of holes on defense and in the running game.

Most points ever against Michigan? I'll take that.

-I was hard on Scott Tolzien for his first half performance. He was brilliant in the second half. Helped, of course, by the fact that he had all day to throw and his receivers were wide open. Nick Toon had another career day, Isaac Anderson was open time and again, and Garrett Graham delivered the performance we expect from him. Lance Kendricks made a really nice, athletic play on his touchdown reception. We'll give the passing game a B, but an A+ for the second half.

-John Clay won't go down as the top star of this game, but had another very good day. As I Tweeted late in the game, who is a better candidate for Big Ten offensive player of the year than him? Montee Ball got a lot of good reps, and Zach Brown had one very nice run. Reassuring to see the running back depth that our offensive needs. A- for the run game.

-So let's give props to the offensive line for the job they did protecting Tolzien in the second half and for run blocking, excellent job fellas. Jake Bscherer must have done a good job replacing Josh Oglesby. Gabe Carimi was called for two holds, one of which was a terrible call in which he had whipped his guy and the guy just twisted and fell.

-Hard to pick one guy on defense, but a lot of guys were solid. Niles Brinkley made a nice pick that should help his confidence. Devin Smith's coverage improved as the game went on. Jae McFadden had some nice player early in the second half. The Big Ten Network crew named O'Brien Schofield the defensive player of the game, he did most of his damage early.

-It's sort of incredible that we haven't allowed a Big Ten opponent to rush for 100 yards this year. Coming into the season that figured to be a weakness, with two new defensive tackles and two new linebackers. But that unit has obviously been excellent, and our success has stemmed from there.

One more Big Ten team to go, and Northwestern is always tricky. But we've guaranteed a winning conference record in a rebuilding year. The senior class that played its last home game today deserves a lot of credit for that.

Last year the Michigan game was the lowest of lows for the Badgers and their fans. This year the Michigan game is a reason for us to smile and enjoy life in red.

UW-Indiana box score

Thoughts from the Wisconsin-Indiana box score:

-As much as Indiana shredded our pass defense, here's an interesting stat: we averaged 17.6 yards per completion to Indiana's 12.6. On 11 attempts, that's a pretty good day for Scott Tolzien.

-If we get through a game with a roughly 5:2 run-pass ratio, we're usually going to win.

-Time of possession advantage for Badgers: 33:45 to 26:15.

-Interesting punter comparison: Brad Nortman's gross average was 44.2 to Chris Hagerup's 37.8, but Hagerup's net average was 37.0 yards to Nortman's 32.5. Touchbacks will do that to a guy. Nortman's solid, I'm not complaining, but he can work on his coffin corner touch.

-Just one end around called today, a week after Lance Kendricks ran it so well and a year after David Gilreath ran it so well against Indiana. The fake end around was employed regularly.

-No surprise that Chris Borland led the team in tackles with nine, including one for loss and his incredible interception. But Devin Smith was second with eight, an indication of how often Indiana passed. Interestingly enough I don't remember a single play Smith was involved in.

-Will Patterson led Indiana with 10 tackles, but Montee Ball flat run over him on his second touchdown run. That's a true freshman running over a senior thought to be one of the best linebackers in the conference. The future is bright for that one.

-Indiana's defense is not good, and most of their key players are seniors. Besides Patterson, there's Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew, who were rendered non-factors by Gabe Carimi, Josh Oglesby and Jake Bscherer. It's hard to see the Hoosiers getting considerably better any time soon.

-Jay Valai had a tackle for loss and pass breakup, and was generally more noticeable today than in most other games this year. Which got me thinking: he's making less highlight reel plays, but he's also whiffing on tackles less often. Overall, his play has been solid, as has that of Chris Maragos, which has helped as our young cornerbacks have had their ups and downs finding their way on the edge.

Line not offensive at all

After thinking about it, I thought the offensive line played perhaps its best game of the year against Michigan State. The first two series were rocky (Jim Polzin reported that John Moffitt offered reporters $15 not to mention his early whiffs, funny stuff), but after that the play was really solid. We ran the ball effectively against what was by far the best run defense we've faced this year, and Scott Tolzien was given time to throw.

The interesting thing is, that wasn't the offensive line as it was projected at the beginning of fall camp. In fact, only the starting tackles were as projected. As far as I could tell, the line shaped up like this:

LT: Gabe Carimi
LG: John Moffitt
C: Peter Konz
RG: Kevin Zeitler
RT: Josh Oglesby

His camp injury aside, Carimi is a given, although the hold he was called for against MSU was pretty ugly. The fact that Oglesby has been largely unmentioned thus far can only be seen as a positive. The quality of competition he's going to face is about to getting dramatically better, hopefully he's built up enough confidence to play well against the likes of Ohio State and Iowa.

The interior spots are most interesting, though. Apparently Jake Bscherer has settled into a career as a backup. Is Travis Frederick healthy enough to go, or has Konz just played well enough to keep him on the bench? Same goes for Bill Nagy and Zeitler at right guard.

Tough to say. Without extensive video review it's often hard to determine the effectiveness of individual interior linemen. But it seems clear that Bob Bostad has about eight starting-caliber linemen at his disposal. Even better, not one of these linemen is a senior. As well as the offense has played so far, it's not a stretch to say that with just about everyone scheduled to return next year, the Badgers' 2010 offense could be one of the best we've had.

Wisconsin-Michigan State halftime thoughts

Good half against a good team. A little disappointed we didn't do more with the good field position on our second-to-last drive, but whatever.

Still having a hard time getting used to this passing-dominant offensive philosophy. It seems to be working, and the running game has been reasonably effective when used.

Two great catches by Garrett Graham for touchdowns. The first one was a lot tougher catch than the one he dropped the play before. The second one may have hit the ground, but video couldn't overturn it conclusively. If the call on the field had been incomplete, I don't think they could have overturned it the other way, either.

Have to question Mark Dantonio's decision to pull Cousins for Nichol for that series, that pick by Chris Maragos was a momentum changer.

Defensive tackles are making plays! Patrick Butrym and Dan Moore showing up on the Spartans' side of the line.

Nick Toon quietly effective as usual. Do you see him doing that Lee Evans thing where he circles his hands around each other prior to the snap? Good guy to emulate.

Mike Taylor made a great catch on his interception, that ball was thrown hard and he was falling backward.

Still loving what Chris Borland is bringing on special teams, and the ESPN announcers have seen him, too. Like to see him getting some reps as a pass rusher in obvious passing situations.

Line was struggling early, especially Moffitt, and Carimi's blatant hold nullified a really nice pass and catch, but they seem to have rebounded nicely. Looks like State's going to be blitzing a lot this afternoon.

Would be nice to get a touchdown on the opening drive of the half and really create some separation.

Wisconsin-Northern Illinois halftime thoughts

By my reckoning, the Badgers should be up 21-3 right now, not 14-6. As much as I've been pleased with the play in general, the same sloppiness that killed us last year crept into our first half play.

-Jae McFadden's stupid, stupid facemask gives Northern three points.

-Travis Frederick's hold on a nice Zach Brown run kills a drive that seemed headed for the end zone.

Mistakes happen, but we don't have the overwhelming talent or veteran savvy that allows us to shrug it off easily.

Other thoughts:

-Rascal Flatts for the Big Ten Network's theme song? Check the demographics, BTN, not a good call.

-No windbreaker for Bielema? Did he ditch thtat last year?

-Needless to say, nice way for Scott Tolzien to begin his first game as a starter. It helped that Isaac Anderson was so wide open Allan Evridge could have hit him. Tolzien has played pretty well so far. Anderson and Garrett Graham getting so open helps.

-On Anderson's reverse touchdown, Gabe Carimi got out on the perimeter and created enough interference to let Ike find the end zone. Shades of Joe Thomas.

-Like the depth on Philip Welch's kickoffs thus far, reaching the end zone consistently.

-On defense, J.J. Watt and O'Brien Schofield are playing very well. Watt is Matt Shaughnessy's height, but with more bulk and seemingly more quickness. He's behind the line of scrimmage a lot. Schofield, too, and he's lining up without a hand on the ground. Also seen him dropping back into coverage on what appear to be zone blitzes.

-Seems like we're blitzing a lot, which I like. Our defense is probably going to give up some big plays this year -- why not blitz and try to increase the odds of us turning big plays? Blake Sorensen has made more plays in the first half than he has in his career thus far, it seems he may have found a role as a blitzer.

-Mike Taylor is living up to the hype earlier. Tackle for loss, and the strip/fumble recovery was beautiful. As the announcers pointed out, it came after he made a sound tackle. Hope the injury he suffered isn't serious.

-Couple rough patches for Aaron Henry. He really blew a tackle on Northern's one big play of the half, and his interference penalty was blatant. Hope it doesn't mess with him mentally.

-Always love to see the new kids out there. Chris Borland has been in a lot, as have Antonio fenelus and Anthony Mains.

-See that block Nick Toon threw on that Northern defender? He blew him up! Love it when our receivers contribute as blockers.

We should be in fine shape here, but we also should have stepped on their throats by now.

Travis Frederick

Last fall when Big Foot played Wautoma for the Division 4 championship, I zeroed in on Travis Frederick. He looked enormous, which wasn't really a surprise, and fairly mobile, but it was still hard to get a read on how his size and skills would translate to Division 1 college ball.



Pretty well, it seems. Now Frederick is being mentiond in the same breath as Cory Raymer, Bob Winckler, and Dennis Lick. Not bad company.


With John Moffitt still laid up we'll get a chance to see how good this kid is right away. I expect he'll struggle at times, but how often is that painfully obvious with a center? Unless Northern Illinois has the MAC version of Albert Haynesworth, I bet he holds his own.


With Moffitt, Bill Nagy, and Gabe Carimi all missing time this camp because of injuries, guys like Frederick and Kevin Zeitler are getting a lot of reps. That can only help the O-Line's depth, and here's the best thing: all 10 guys on the two-deep return next year. If things go right we could be looking at one of those really, really good Badger lines.

Questions from Duff Beach

Duff Beach, frequent commenter and blogger at Badger Sports Bar, recently emailed myself and several other bloggers some questions about the upcoming football season, to get us going. Trust me, it's tough getting motivated to blog during the summer. Duff's first round focused on the offense, my answers below.

What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?

Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.

The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?

Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.

Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?

I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not mucn more. With Graham and a solid good of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.

And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?

It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr is he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.

I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?

The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.

Concerned

This was my first Badger-related thought while reading through the Athlon season preview magazine: we don't look very strong. At all. Could really struggle this year unless the schedule is as soft as it seems.

Athlon puts us seventh, one spot behind Northwestern and on ahead of Michigan, which seems about right to me (although Illinois at fifth seems high after how mediocre they were last year).

I'll get into more detail as the season gets closer, but here's what I'm thinking mid-summer.

We have exactly one elite player, Garrett Graham. Gabe Carimi could get there. Nick Toon or David Gilreath could be elite, but will be held back by quarterback play. Jay Valai, John Moffitt, Jae McFadden -- those guys are solid.

My biggest reason for optimism, for both this year and the next couple, is our kickers. Our best teams have had above-average kickers, and Philip Welch and Brad Nortman have the potential to be above-average.

Then again, so does Gilreath as a returner, and the magazine issued a reminder that UW was 119th out of 119 Division I teams in average yards per kickoff return last year. So it's premature to call special teams a strong unit.

On the other hand, our defensive line seems like it will be weaker than at any point in the last 20 years. The linebackers don't seem like they're going to be generating many big plays. There are 20 returning defensive backs on the roster, but none of them seem like the guy I definitely want checking Arrelious Benn when we're up five and Illinois has the ball with two minutes left. And, of course, the quarterback thing.

Thing is, other than Ohio State and Penn State, the Big Ten is really up in the air, so anything can happen. But, as the title of this post implies, I'm concerned.

Badger football: Where are we headed?

Today is my dad's 59th birthday. He started taking me to Badger games a couple years before the start of the X axis on this graph, in 1988, but by the time of Barry Alvarez's first year, 1990, the story was the same. One win.

I'm pretty sure that if you asked my dad, while we were sitting at Camp Randall through a 28-12 loss to California in Barry's first game as coach, to plot a graph of Wisconsin football wins over the next two decades, the line would have topped off at about eight wins, and from time to time dipped back into the two- or three-win range. Sort of like Indiana.

But since then, the number of wins generated by the Wisconsin football program on an annual basis has generally been on the upswing. Everyone remembers the double digit-win seasons of 1993, 1998, 1999, 2005, and 2006. Badger football at its finest.

The point of this graph, however, is to remind everyone that while the Badgers have enjoyed an unprecedented run of success over the past two decades, every peak is followed by a valley.

The '93 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving '94 team and a '95 team that didn't go bowling. The '98-'99 Rose Bowl champs were followed by an underachieving 2000 team and an '01 team that didn't go bowling. The '06 12-win team was followed by an underachieving '07 team an '08 team that wouldn't have gone bowling if there weren't 845 bowl games in college football nowadays.

So we've been here before.

But wait! you say. This dropoff to near-.500 mediocrity was supposed to happen next year, after the Shaughnessys and Langfords and Levys and Chapmans and Urbiks and Kemps and Beckums have exhausted their eligibility. 2008 should have been great!

Alas, it wasn't, for a number of reasons that have been well-documented here and elsewhere. Add that to the massive losses on the offensive and defensive lines, and expectations for 2009 will be lower than any season since 2004, John Stocco's first year at quarterback. Like the current economic downturn, this latest slide looks different -- worse -- than previous recent downturns in Badger football. There is a very real possibility that 2009 will be a bowl-less season for Wisconsin. That would be disappointing, and would undoubtedly have even more Badger fans calling for Bret Bielema's dismissal.

I would argue that the most critical goal for 2009 is not chasing seven wins or some low-level bowl game, but correcting systemic problems that contributed to the declines of the past two seasons -- regardless of how it impacts 2009. If those are properly addressed, the future looks bright for 2010 and beyond. If not, Barry will be looking for a new coach around the time of my dad's 61st birthday.

Here's what we need to address:

Quarterback
This year's collapse began with subpar quarterback play. First Allan Evridge, then Dustin Sherer failed to play the position efficiently. Inaccurate passing, interceptions, sacks, and lost scrambling opportunities put the Badger offense and defense in difficult positions, and things snowballed from there.

To me, this is the downside to the diversity Paul Chryst has added to the attack. On the whole, Chryst has made the Wisconsin offense far more modern, explosive, unpredictable, and diverse -- in a word, better. In my opinion he is the best offensive coordinator we've ever had and is still the guy we need in that job. But when you don't have a quarterback capable of executing all these nuances, you struggle, as we did this year.

The '99 Rose Bowl was on the Big Ten Network again last week and I watched us run up 38 points on UCLA. There wasn't a lot of mystery to Brad Childress's offense -- hand off to Ron Dayne and Mike Samuel drop back a few times for deep balls to Chris Chambers.

By no means am I advocating a return to the Stone Age offense run by Chilly, and to an extent Brian White. What I am advocating is a shift of the offensive focus from the quarterback back to the tailback. It will always be easier for us to recruit a stud running back or two than it will be to recruit an above-average quarterback -- and history shows we can win without above-average quarterbacks.

If P.J. Hill returns next year, as he should, he and John Clay will be the perfect people to re-emphasize the tailback at the Midwest's version of Tailback U.

This year we averaged just 40.7 rushing attempts per game, the fewest since 1995. That has to change.

One more quarterback-related note: our best have been multiple-year starters. Bevell, Bollinger, Samuel, Stocco. This to me is why every effort should be made to prepare Curt Phillips to start, even if Sherer or Tolzien are better options for winning games in 2009. If there is any chance Phillips will be the guy during his time in Madison, he should be our starter next season.

Player development
We just graduated are very talented senior class, many of whom will find spots on NFL rosters this fall. As a group, though, they weren't highly-rated coming out of high school. They were solid prospects who developed into above-average college football players.

The distressing thing is most of their development came between their freshman and sophomore years, at the tail end of the Alvarez Era. Think about the guys: Shaughnessy, Beckum, Chapman, Levy, Casillas, Urbik, Kemp, VandenHeuvel, Langford, Ikegwuonu, Hodge. Of those guys, who was better as a junior or senior than he was as a sophomore? Langford and Kemp are the only clear-cut answers.

The other guys didn't necessarily regress, but they didn't take the next step toward all-conference performances that their first years starting indicated was possible.

This is troubling. Even though Bielema and his staff appear to be doing a good job recruiting, we will never consistently bring in classes like those of Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State. Never have, never will. And schools like Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois will also finish ahead of us in the recruiting rankings in any given year.

The advantage we always had under Alvarez and his staff was unmatched player development. They took those two- and three-star guys and made them into All-Big Ten players. Five-star guys like Joe Thomas became all-time greats.

I'm not seeing similar player development under this staff. Next year in particular, we'll need the wide receivers and defensive backs to take a big step forward, because they'll have more experience than our guys in the trenches. We're not going to trade for Regis Benn or sign Donvan Warren as a free agent, so this improvement is going to have to come from within. It's on the coaches (and the players) to make it happen.

Swagger
By swagger, I'm not talking about Brian Urlacher in an Old Spice commercial or Florida State running out to midfield and taunting the opponent. I'm talking about taking the field secure with the knowledge that you are better prepared both physically and mentally to beat your opponent.

The Badgers have lacked that these past two years. Sure, they've run around the field showing emotion, and said the right things in the press. But it's been superficial. Bluster and bravado are no substitute for genuine confidence and swagger, the kind of confidence and swagger you get from ...

Leaders
Reading yet another Badger football history book the other day brought back fond memories of the leaders this program has had in recent times. Chris McIntosh. Donnel Thompson. Joe Panos. Cecil Martin.

Recent Badger teams have lacked guys like this. Plenty of good players and guys who led by example, but few who set the tone in a way that everyone could see.

Leadership candidates for the next two transition years: Gabe Carimi, John Moffitt, Jay Valai. All three are well-spoken starters with charisma and all-conference ability. It's on them to bring the others along with them on the march back to the top.

Coaches
Sign of the times: my Fire Bret Bielema? post from earlier this fall is still the most-read post on this blog in the last 30 days. Here's my take on the coaching staff.

Bielema should not be replaced. He deserves five years to show what he can do, just as I think all college coaches deserve five years. If at that time the program still looks as it does today, he should be replaced.

We're not Notre Dame or Alabama, programs that can turn over coaches every three years if things aren't going as well as planned. Why? We don't have the money to pay for top available coaches (or buy out coaches' contracts) and we don't have the name recognition for recruiting to continue unimpeded in the face of staff turnover.

So what does Bielema have to show in the next two years?

Obviously he needs to be a better game manager. This year everything went wrong. Trying to score at the end of the first half against Penn State and Florida State backfired horribly. The defense was disorganized in critical situations. Chryst shouldn't be allowed to call options on third-and-1 ever again. The penalty he incurred against Michigan State, while petty on the ref's part, should not have happened.

In 2006 Bielema's aggressiveness drew raves, as we often scored at the end of the first half and stayed a step ahead of opponents. This year nothing worked. He needs to find that happy medium between his risk-taking sensibilities and Barry's conservative ones. You know that ridiculous play that resulted in Florida State's first touchdown would not have been called under Alvarez.

Also, as noted in the season review post, we were beaten soundly in the second half of our losses this year. We need to win the battle of the halftime adjustments darn near every time out.

Preparation also needs to improve dramatically. All the mental errors that drove us nuts this year don't just spring up on Saturday. They are stamped out on Wednesday and Thursday. We don't have the overwhelming talent to overcome those mistakes.

Finally, Bielema needs to take a close look at his staff. His first staff, with the likes of Bob Palcic and Mike Hankwitz, seemed to be a good blend of youth and experience. Now it's all youth. I'm not going to single out one particular position coach for criticism, because all the units had their good and bad moments this year. But that sort of inconsistency is not surprising when so many of the coaches are in their 30s.

What Bielema should do is bring in at least one older hand as an associate head coach, a Dan McCarney type. Perhaps he's been reluctant to do so because he's afraid it would challenge his authority as a young head coach. If so, he's got to get over it. He needs someone to talk him out of letting Evridge and Sherer throw from their own 10 with a minute left in the first half. He also needs a couple of guys whose forte is player development and not just recruiting.

Bielema's staff doesn't need to be a full-fledged team of rivals, but he needs to institute some checks and balances for this thing to work better.

And he needs to stop coaching special teams and find someone else who can.

Bielema can be the guy who leads us on a fourth upward slope. The question is whether or not he can work through these growing pains before Barry is forced by external conditions (ticket sales?) or his own gut to make a change.

As the offseason progresses I'll get into more detail about what I'd like to see happen in spring ball and the summer, and hopefully we'll finish strong on what is shaping up to be a nice recruiting class.

But for now I'll leave you with five keys to turning this thing around.

-De-emphasize the quarterback, re-emphasize the tailback

-Focus on player development

-Get that swagger back, legitimately

-Find the leaders who will insist on nothing less than success

-Evaluate the coaching staff, find a better mix

Offensive

Was watching an ESPN bowl preview last night and the guys were pretty overwhelmingly pro-Florida State in their prognostications. In their view, FSU's defense is going to be way too much for us to handle, and their offensive line is like nothing we've seen. The viewers agreed, with 81% calling a Seminole win.

Underdogs baby!

Rich from Chant Rant asked me to give him an overview of our offense with key players, and the below is what I came up with. What do you think, am I close in my assessment?

Overview
For a long time we were run, run, run, but offensive coordinator Paul Chryst has done a nice job of balancing us out. This year, that didn't turn out so hot because of limitations at quarterback.

We're still at our best when we pound the rock behind our large offensive line and keep the passing to unpredictable downs and distances. The run game still functions best between the tackles, although this year converting on third-and-short has been a struggle.

The passing game relies heavily on the tight end, even with injuries to top guys there. The wide receivers are young and developing, but several came up with big performances late in the season. We don't run any Spread, and little if any shotgun.

Most passing plays are at least seven-step drops. We still use a fullback a lot, and have two seniors there. You'll see a lot of two-tight end sets, even with our injuries. At times we'll play a third tackle in obvious running situations.

Quarterback
Dustin Sherer took over midseason for turnover machine Allan Evridge. He struggled a lot at first, showing the rust of not starting for four years. He has a funny throwing motion and low release point, and sometimes tries to force throws into impossible spots or make plays when throwing the ball away would be more prudent. Other times he makes plays with his feet and his throws get exactly where they need to be. He makes me nervous as hell every time he drops back, but he's the best we've got at the moment.

Running back
Junior P.J. Hill ran for 1,000 yards for the third straight season, but for the third straight season was injury-prone. He's a solid back who has improved the shape of his body from really doughy to just kind of doughy, but he finishes runs well, can catch out of the backfield, and pass block. Sometimes he dances too much rather than hitting holes hard.

Redshirt freshman John Clay is the guy many Badger fans want to see get the lion's share of the carries. He's 6-2, 230 and fast, and at times has had troubles with ball security and running too high. But he hits the hole with authority and seems to make more things happen than Hill. Either way, a good 1-2 punch. Florida native Zach Brown is #3 on the depth chart and sees time on third downs. With Clay's emergence he hasn't seen as much time as anticipated, but had some great moments last year as a freshman.

Chris Pressley and Bill Rentmeester are the fullbacks, and are pretty much just extra guards.

Receiver
Tight end Travis Beckum was an All-American candidate coming into the season but suffered through an injury-plagued season before breaking his leg against Illinois. The next week against Michigan State promising tight end Lance Kendricks also broke his leg. This leaves tight end Garrett Graham, an all-conference pick, as our top remaining threat. As you can see, we were as deep at tight end as anyone, and even with the injuries to Beckum and Kendricks, we're still solid there. Mickey Turner is the blocking tight end.

Wide receiver was a question mark coming into the season, and only late in the season did they start making plays consistently. David Gilreath is small but quick. We run a lot of end-arounds to him, and he had over 100 yards rushing against Indiana. Nick Toon is Al Toon's son, and has the prototype build. Isaac Anderson's dad played collegiately at Minnesota, and he's starting to show consistency. My sense is they'll have trouble getting open against the Florida State secondary.

Offensive line
Long a strong point in our program, our line was good again this year, but not as good as billed. Again, injuries played a part, but they were probably slightly overrated to begin with. At left tackle, sophomore Gabe Carimi is an up-and-comer, an athletic 6-8 kid with good feet. They try to get him out blocking little guys on the perimeter like Joe Thomas did. Left guard Andy Kemp is solid, he pulls a lot, even in short-yardage situations. Center John Moffitt is a charismatic, emerging emotional leader who has taken some costly holding penalties this season. He also pulls.

Right guard Kraig Urbik was probably the most consistent lineman, he's a four-year starter. Right tackle Eric Vanden Heuvel is huge, more of a run blocker than anything. None of them are All-Americans, and when one or two of them were hurt this season the offense sputtered, but when they were all together they run- and pass-blocked effectively. Josh Oglesby is the third tackle, he was the top-rated recruit at the position coming out of high school two years ago, but struggled pass blocking at times this year replacing Carimi and Vanden Heuvel when they were injured.

Kicker
Freshman Philip Welch is our kicker, and has done a great job replacing standout Taylor Mehlhaff. His kickoffs are on the short side, but he's been steady on field goals and extra points.

UW-Michigan State thoughts

I don't even know what to say. Seriously. This week after week of getting kicked in the balls by one thing after another is really starting to have a residual effect on my psyche.

We should have won this game by three touchdowns. Two 100-yard rushers. Holding Ringer to 54 yards. Their quarterback goes 19-for-44 and their butterfingered receivers drop seven passes.

And yet ...

Sigh.

Deep breath.

(Kick wall.)

-Where to begin? How about the officiating? Looks like in the end we racked up 121 penalty yards. I'd estimate that about half of them were no-doubters, about a quarter of them were toss-ups, and about a quarter of them were ridiculous.

-Kudos to Michigan State's offensive coordinator for his innovative game plan of calling passing plays, having his receivers run near our defensive backs, and lobbying for interference calls. It worked marvelously. Better than actually trying to complete passes to a bunch of guys with hands like that guy from the movie Necessary Roughness, I think his name was Featherstone (same color jerseys, too).

-Then again, someone named Blair White (wasn't she on The Facts of Life?) had 164 yards receiving, so they had something working.

-Can someone explain the back-to-back penalties on our coaching staff following the John Clay touchdown that set up their last touchdown? Bielema just said the refs' explanation was that our defense came onto the field too quickly after the play was over, and that he's never been warned or even talked to about a penalty like that before. Oh my god ...

(Break: Listening to the postgame I just heard a McCain ad featuring a stuttering Joe the Plumber and threw the radio through the window.)

-We ice the game with a rare third-and-1 conversion ... and a hold on Moffitt. Iffy call, seems like John got his arm outside the lineman and the guy fell over, but it didn't even need to be that close. We didn't need to hold their linemen -- we ran the ball so effectively it was like Sinbad was on the Spartans' line.

Second straight week something like this happened. Last week we overcame it, this week we crumbled.

-Why in the hell did Bielema call timeout when State was setting up for that last-second field goal? They were rushing onto the field for what was admittedly a very makable field goal, but we gave them time to get things straight. Maybe if he hadn't wasted our third timeout with that foolish challenge earlier in the half he could have called a third straight timeout.

The radio guys just said calling the timeout was a good move because we only had 10 guys on the field. Oh, so that makes it good coaching. Sheesh.

Bitter cloud lifting? Not yet ...

-If Michigan State is the Big Ten's third-best team, then this truly is an awful conference.

-At least the running game got going today, and found that rhythm in the second half. The only thing that stopped it was our play calling or penalties. P.J. looked confident. Clay ran hard and hit holes. His touchdown run was beautiful, especially the blocking. Chris Pressley got a seal on the outside linebacker. Eric Vanden Heuvel and Kraig Urbik doubled down on the edge. Andy Kemp pulled nicely, and Nick Toon held the cornerback at bay. Perfect execution.

On P.J.'s touchdown run Billy Rentmeester and Gabe Carimi had nice blocks.

-Toon showed signs of being a playmaker at wide receiver.

-Final yardage: Wisconsin 431, Michigan State 312.

-Had a feeling that Phil Welch was going to miss that field goal, but didn't think it would come back to be decisive.

-Also had a feeling State would call a fake field goal, but in the first half. Terrible designed play -- snap to a defensive end? Gee, can't believe he didn't catch it.

-Brad Nortman and Daven Jones had great execution on the punt Jones downed at the 1, but the refs thought otherwise. Which one of them saw that as a touchback? Either way, Bielema should never have challenged it, there was no way a replay could have overturned it.

-One holding call on Niles Brinkley was particularly galling. The refs got him for a hold when there was no contact until after the ball was already past the receiver. Unreal.

-Welch's kickoffs were too short for my liking.

-In a way, this was very similar to our win over Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. State for the most part outplayed us in that game but foul trouble on their bigs, which their fans would pin on refereeing, let us creep back in, and Flowers' steal stole the game for us late. This was the football equivalent of that, only with us on the losing end. Payback's a bitch ... but I'm glad we got that win.

Another week, another loss like this. If I had any hair left I'd be pulling it out. I can't even take satisfaction with Minnesota and Michigan losing ... maybe just a little.

Jana just handed me Charlie, so I'm wrapping it up. He's smiling, so I guess I should be, too. Our performance today keeps me from wrapping up hopes of doing something else positive this season. But just barely.

UW-Iowa: Lining them up

We sure have passed around a lot of blame lately while assessing the Badgers' three-game losing streak, haven't we? It's quarterback play! It's play calling! It's receivers with the drops! We need to give the freshman running back more carries! Our defense tires in the second half! Argh!

Here's another theory: the offensive line play isn't as good as it could be under new coach Bob Bostad.

The line has not been a weakness, in my mind. They've done an adequate job of creating running lanes and protecting the quarterback.

But they also haven't been a dominant unit, either, and given the holes noted above, they need to be.

For instance, the Badgers are averaging 4.5 yards per carry -- seems good, right? But take away the Akron game -- 404 yards on 63 carries -- and UW is averaging 3.95 yards per carry. Not good.

In the passing game, the line has allowed nine sacks in three Big Ten games. Is the line to blame for all of those? Surely indecisive quarterback play and inconsistent play by a young receiving corps are prime culprits. But Allan Evridge hasn't exactly been sitting back in a protective bubble, either.

These things feed off each other. The lack of a threatening passing game makes it easier for opposing defenses to load up on the run, and at some point there's too many guys in the box for the line to block.

Just like with DelVaughn Alexander and the receivers, I'm not here to throw Bostad under the bus. He seems to be well-liked by the line, and wouldn't have gotten the job if he didn't know what he was doing. But it does make the contributions of former line coach Bob Palcic more appreciated.

The line will have its hands full with Iowa tomorrow, whether Gabe Carimi and Kraig Urbik play or not. Tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul seem to have been around forever, and linebacker A.J. Edds really played well against us in Madison last year. Their offense doesn't scare me much, but given our recent level of play, that seems like a foolhardy attitude.

It's time to get back to basics. Limit penalties. Carry out assignments. Make the simple play, one play at a time. Protect the ball. Do all those things and we'll have a good chance at returning to the pink locker rooms victorious.

Continue with the sloppy play, and it's a long ride home from Iowa City.

This game is personal for Bret Bielema. Let's hope his team takes a big step tomorrow toward making FireBretBielema.com irrelevant.

Wisconsin 16, Iowa 14

UW-Michigan preview

Remember where you were the last time Wisconsin beat Michigan in Ann Arbor? I do.

It was the fall of 1994, my freshman year. Our highly-touted defending Rose Bowl champs had just tied Purdue and lost to lowly Minnesota at Camp Randall, and morale for the football team in Sullivan Hall was low. We didn't even watch the game -- it was on ESPN, and the dorms didn't have cable at the time.

So what do you make of a win like that? The win over Michigan in '93 was so dramatic -- kept us in the Rose Bowl after the horrible loss at Minnesota, then the student section stampede fiasco afterward -- yet this one was greeted with almost a shoulder shrug. We still didn't have much of a chance to win the conference, and given the team's inconsistency, who knew what was next? A 24-3 loss to Ohio State, that's what. All in all, a mediocre season.

Our struggles in Ann Arbor since then (and for a long time preceding then) are well-documented. But if we win there tomorrow, it will be greeted with more than a shoulder shrug.

We should win this one. We're more experienced, and probably more talented. Our coaching staff is more established. We've already gone into an intimidating road venue and won.

It ain't going to be easy. Michigan's got a good defense, although they haven't played any prolific offenses yet. Also, turnovers did them in against Notre Dame, and we can't count on that happening again. Here are my keys to the game:

-Run off tackle. Michigan has two above-average defensive tackles in Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson, and while I have confidence in Andy Kemp, John Moffitt, and Kraig Urbik, I'd rather take my chances running at Tim Jamison and Brandon Graham. That puts the onus on Gabe Carimi, Eric Vanden Heuvel, and Mickey Turner.

-Travis Beckum should have a big game. Michigan's got two good cornerbacks in Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren, but their safeties and linebackers aren't as imposing. Becks ought to be back near 100% by now, so feature him early and often ... then go to Garrett Graham when they heavy up on Travis. I don't see many catches by the wide receivers this week.

-It may seem to go against conventional wisdom, but I wouldn't do anything special to pressure freshman quarterback Steven Threet, exotic blitzes, stunts, et al. I'd rush the front four, keep as many of the receivers in front of the back seven as we can, and make him beat us down the field with 80-yard drives, six yards at a time. This would also be the best way to limit big plays by Sam McGuffie, their promising freshman running back. (BTW, how great of a name is 'Sam McGuffie?' It sounds like an old gold prospector with an oversized cowboy hat and a bushy moustache, maybe one of the palookas in Mike Tyson's Punch-Out).

We play this game straight-up, without any huge mistakes by either side, and we ought to win this one.

I'll say the final is the type of score they've seemed to hang on us many times in the Big House in the last two decades: Wisconsin 27, Michigan 13.

UW-Marshall thoughts

So the defense needs to make a big play, eh? How about three picks on Marshall's first three second half possessions? That's more like it!

Overall, after a putrid first 20 minutes, an immaculate last 40 minutes. Passing game was great. Running game did what it could against a team selling out to stop it. Defense turned Marshall over. A good tuneup for Fresno State.

-Good for Niles Brinkley getting two interceptions. That's going to do so much for his confidence, even if both of his picks came on awful passes. On his first one, Marshall's quarterback was pressured by a nice spin move by Matt Shaughnessy and a good edge rush by Deandre Levy.

-Paul Chryst called a good game. In particular, I liked how we seemingly threw on first down more than usual. The pass plays he called did wonders for getting Allan Evridge in a rhythm.

-Evridge showed signs today of being Tyler Donovan tough. Not only did he keep his feet and get throws off with defenders hanging off him, but he took a cheap shot from a Marshall pass rusher on a pass to Garrett Graham. Evridge spread the ball around nicely to seven receivers.

-P.J. Hill's fumbles are starting to concern me, the first one more than the second. He's good enough to keep plays going with his feet and his drive, and that leads to him falling in awkward positions and leaving himself exposed to the types of hits like the one that caused the fumble.

-Good job getting Graham involved in the second half, and Lance Kendricks continued to produce. I'll be happy to have Beckum back for Fresno, though.

-Chryst is calling plays that get the ball in David Gilreath's hands in position to make plays with the ball in his hands, not necessarily depending on him getting himself open. Liked the end around, and the short screen-type play where Gabe Carimi got out and blocked on the perimeter.

-Didn't think we'd see John Clay again after his early fumble, but boy did he run well late. He's on his way to becoming the beast we've thought he could be.

-Was the defense's solid second half the result of adjustments by Dave Doeren and his staff, or just better effort by the Badgers? Probably a bit of both.

-Patrick Butrym and Jeff Stehle both saw time at defensive tackle while the game was still in the balance.

-Sorry, but Bradie Ewing wasn't even close to being in on his touchdown run. But good for him.

-After suffering through Ian Allen last week, we got Charles Davis this week. Davis is probably my favorite college football analyst -- he knows the game, and he knows the Badgers.

On the postgame Bret Bielema just said he wishes they could leave for Fresno right now, and I couldn't agree more. Should be an awesome game against a terrific team in a hostile environment.

Gabe Carimi: Cornerstone

The other day I was reading a thread on the Buckyville message board detailing a quote from Howard Griffith of the Big Ten Network. To paraphrase, Howard said that if he could take one conference player to build a team around, it would be Gabe Carimi, the Badgers' sophomore left tackle.

At first, I chuckled. With all the prep All-Americans Ohio State and Michigan bring in from around the country, surely our somewhat anonymous young 'un wouldn't be that guy, right?

But then I thought about it. If you're choosing a guy to build a team around, you'd want:

-A young guy, preferably with at least three years of eligibility left, ideally with the inclination to stay until his eligibility is exhausted.

-A track record in college, not just prep accolades and press clippings.

-A guy who plays a premium position.

Carimi fits all three, especially the third, playing left tackle. Digging deeper, I grabbed Athlon and checked their preseason all-Big Ten team looking for freshmen and sophomores. On the top three all-conference teams, here's what the magazine had:

-WR Arrelious Benn, sophomore, Illinois (first)
-PR David Gilreath, sophomore, Wisconsin (first)
-Carimi (second)
-LB Greg Jones, sophomore, Michigan State (second)
-KR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, sophomore, Iowa (second)
-C John Moffitt, sophomore, Wisconsin (third)
-LB Martez Wilson, sophomore, Illinois (third)
-KR Harold Howell, sophomore, Minnesota (third)

We can discount the three returners -- return guys are nice, but unless they're Devin Hester they're not going to be the first guy you'd pick. Benn might be the most talented guy here, but if he's Randy Moss, he sure doesn't have a Tom Brady, which will limit his production. Don't know much about Jones. Wilson has star written all over him, but he hasn't done it yet. I love Moffitt, but he's a center, and that is no better than the second most-important spot on the line.

The obvious guy that hasn't been mentioned here yet is Terrelle Pryor, and if he lives up to his billing, this discussion is over.

But he hasn't done it yet, which makes Gabe Carimi as good a choice as anyone in the Big Ten to build a team around. Glad to have him on our side.

-On this note: it's the presence of Carimi and Moffitt, along with Josh Oglesby, that leave me optimistic about the next two years.

Friends of mine, one in particular, have posited that with the exodus of a very talented senior class, 2009 could be a rough year for the Badgers. It's a valid point; you don't lose Pressley, Kemp, Urbik, Vanden Heuvel, Beckum, Evridge, Shaughnessy, Chapman, Newkirk, Levy, Casillas, and Langford without feeling it a bit.

But think of the guys we'll have coming back: Hill, Brown, Clay, Carimi, Moffitt, Oglesby, Gilreath, Jefferson, Schofield, McFadden, Carter, Valai, Goins, Henry, Welch, Nortman. We could be in for some frustrating days on the defensive side of the ball, but should also be able to pound opponents into submission with the running game.

Ah, but that's next year. Still plenty of things to worry about and look forward to in 2008!

Season preview

So here we are, perched on another season that could hold big things for the Badgers. Many people are calling for a BCS bowl for UW, and mentioning "Wisconsin" and "national title" in the same sentence, although never throwing "will win the" in between. Ohio State is the clear favorite, but we've seen clear favorites fall before, right?

But from my basement, it doesn't seem like this will be the season Wisconsin will end its Big Ten championship drought. It seems more like a nine-win season that ends in Orlando or Tampa.

The schedule's too tough. The question marks too abundant. The injury bug too vicious.

Of course, the Badgers' schedule and roster have looked less promising in years past and the team has produced big results; 1998 comes to mind. But there's a folly in college sports comparing teams more than a couple years apart. The Badger football program in 2008 is completely different than it was in 1998 — coaching staff, offensive approach, home stadium.

I'm not going to waste bandwidth discussing the well-hashed out keys for the season: quarterback play, secondary inexperience, defensive line injuries, kicking game questions. Here are my two biggest keys for Badger success this season:

The offensive line has to block better. Sounds obvious, right? But it's not. As I wrote earlier this summer, I believe our offensive line has been overrated as a result of many years of producing top-notch blockers and good running games. Recently, the State Journal's Tom Mulhern wrote a good story about the alarming rate at which Badger quarterbacks have been sacked in recent years.

The pieces are in place for this to be a really good line. Kraig Urbik is one of the best guards in the country. Gabe Carimi is an athletic youngster who has the makings of a star. Andy Kemp and Eric Vanden Heuvel have tons of starting experience at guard and tackle. And John Moffitt was promising in his first experience last year.

The offensive line has to be dominant this year. If this line is stellar, everything falls in place: the running game grinds out 4-plus yards per carry, setting up reasonable distances on second and third down; less pressure on Allan Evridge to be anything more than a game manager, more time for him to read defenses and his young receivers to get open; more touchdowns, less field goal attempts for our unproven kickers; scoreless drives ending further up the field, lessening the pressure on a true freshman punter; a decisive edge in time of possession gives the defense rest and makes opposing offenses more predictable.

For all the talk of Ron Dayne and Tom Burke and Brent Moss, the Badgers' Rose Bowl teams of the last two decades have been built around Joe Panos and Cory Raymer and Chris McIntosh and Aaron Gibson. The 12-1 team of 2006 is inexplicably overlooked, but it was led by Joe Thomas. If the 2008 offensive line rises to the occasion, this year can be special.

How will the defense play under Dave Doeren? Like the San Antonio Spurs and Bret Saberhagen, the Badger defense seems to adopt an every-other-year performance schedule. Dominant in 2004 and 2006. Sieve-like in 2005 and 2007. But, as cautioned earlier, past performance means nothing, given the completely new cast of characters.

That said, the defense could be special in 2008. When Bret Bielema came on board in 2004, he gave a jolt of energy to a unit that had gone stale under Kevin Cosgrove. When Mike Hankwitz came in in 2006, his new approach worked well. Can Doeren do the same thing now that he's running things himself?

As much as energy and scheme play into it, it depends on a lot the play of certain individuals. Matt Shaughnessy has to elevate his play beyond the second team all-conference level he's been at the last two years. Deandre Levy and Jonathan Casillas have to make as many big plays as they did in 2006, if not more. Shane Carter has to round out his game and become a better tackler.

Most of the preseason focus on the defense has been on the new guys who need to step in and contribute: Mario Goins, Niles Brinkley, Jay Valai, Jae McFadden. Their play is important, undoubtedly — if any of those guys are terrible and suitable replacements aren't found, the defense is in trouble.

But to me, the key is more our good players playing great. If Shaughnessy, Casillas, Levy, et al are spectacular, the newbies' warts won't be as visible.

So in a nutshell, I think it is more important that our good players perform at a great level than it is for our unproven players to perform at an acceptable level. If the first happens, the second will be a natural byproduct.

Weighing the Big Ten O-lines

The other day I was reading Athlon’s college football preview, and going through the Michigan preview, I noticed that Stephen Schilling, their leading returning lineman, weighs 295 pounds. Odd, I thought, an elite lineman weighing less than 300 pounds. They still exist?

Apparently. Surveying the Big Ten’s projected starting lines, I found plenty of guys weighing less than 300 pounds. Here is how they break down, going LT-LG-C-RG-RT:

Indiana: 306-320-292-315-292
Illinois: 295-303-296-309-300
Iowa: 305-300-285-305-290
Michigan: 294-288-292-292-295
Michigan State: 305-325-300-292-320
Minnesota: 315-280-275-300-305
Northwestern: 285-295-300-305-285
Ohio State: 312-345-297-323-312
Penn State: 314-291-297-288-309
Purdue: 325-308-287-314-300
Wisconsin: 299-316-317-328-321

For those who don’t know Badgers by their weights, that’s Gabe Carimi-Andy Kemp-John Moffitt-Kraig Urbik-Eric Vanden Heuvel.

The average projected starter on a Big Ten offensive line in 2008 weighs 302.98 pounds.
Interesting, no? Now let’s look at how these lines average out. In parenthesis are Athlon’s conference ranking of the units, which I found to be pretty much in line with how I see things.

Ohio State: 317.8 (1)
Wisconsin: 316.2 (2)
Michigan State: 308.4 (8)
Purdue: 306.8 (5)
Indiana: 305 (7)
Illinois: 300.6 (4)
Penn State: 299.8 (3)
Iowa: 297 (6)
Minnesota: 295 (11)
Northwestern: 294 (10)
Michigan: 292.2 (9)

Certainly, weight alone doesn’t make an effective offensive lineman. Strength, agility, intelligence, technique, scheme – they’re all as important as size, although you don’t see too many 6-1, 250 guys out there any more.

But isn’t that interesting? Ohio State and Wisconsin, the consensus top two lines in the Big Ten, are by far the largest. Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan, the three lightest, are also Athlon’s three weakest units in the conference. Of course, all three also run the spread, so their relative Liliputian statures aren’t critical liabilities.

Now, let’s look at the Big Ten’s team rushing leaders in 2007: Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State. This year’s three heaviest lines are right there, and talents like Rashard Mendenhall and Juice Williams transcended a lighter-than-average line for the Illini.

Josh Oglesby, all 338 pounds of him, will arrive as a starter in 2009 at the latest. There will be no stopping us then.