Blogger roundtable: Offense

A handful of Badger Bloggers got together to discuss the upcoming football season. Duff Beach of On Wisconsin coordinated, joined by me, Phil Mitten of Hoops Marinara (a Badger basketball blog -- nice alliteration on that one, no?), and Adam Hoge of Bucky's 5th Quarter. We started with the easier task, making sense of the offense:.

Note the answers regarding the quarterbacks and offensive line, my answers differed from the others more than on the other questions. Good perspectives.

What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?

Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Gilreath is No. 1 right now, but I'm convinced Nick Toon will be a starter by the opener. Whether that means he takes Isaac Anderson's spot or Gilreath's, we shall see, but Toon has great size and he proved last year he could make some big catches. As for Jefferson, I think it is all up to him. I didn't really like his attitude last season after a pretty good freshman year and I think that had a lot to do with his sub-par season. Attitude plays a big part in getting over concussions as well. Jefferson has the tools to make the UW receivers a scary group, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will make it happen.

BadgerCentric: Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.

Hoops Marinara: Gilreath may be our best, but he's certainly not a #1. Honestly, I wish the best for Jefferson to contribute, but at this point I am hoping for Toon and/or Anderson to pass him by, preferrably Toon so we can have a steady option on the outside to go with Graham on the inside. Gilreath is slightly overrated as a return man (still waiting for that first TD!), but he does have the ability to break a big play. Maybe Jefferson could develop into our jump ball specialist in the red zone. Work on those hands son!

On Wisconsin: I think Gilreath was #1 last season by default -- Anderson had been hurt and Toon and Jefferson were far less experienced. I think he starts this season #3, as the slot receiver. Toon probably has the most talent, although I sometimes think we all get distracted by his last name. Anderson is a better pure receiver than Gilreath. Maybe not as fast, but better hands and better size. Anderson and Toon are your starting two. Gilreath is dangerous in space, but I think he’s #3 based on his size and hands. Jefferson? He’s a good kid, but I worry a lot about his head. I can’t seem him starting over any of those three, so he spells Toon and Anderson. I think this is the best group of receivers – especially when you factor in the tight ends – in more than five years (with the depth, better than Williams, Orr, and Daniels). I’m excited about our passing game . . . IF . . .

The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?

Hoops Marinara: What me, worry? No, I think the depth is fine at RB. Wisconsin has always done well with the next man in philosophy, so the Badgers can handle a minor injury here and there and use a Ewing or an Erik Smith as needed. I am okay with Brown taking a full 3rd of the snaps if it means keeping JC the Messiah fresh.

Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I don't think Brown gets a third of the snaps unless John Clay has to battle some injuries. Still, a fourth of the carries seems realistic because of Brown's talent. I'm not worried about depth because Montee Ball provides some emergency insurance much like Brown did during his freshman season. The difference is that UW needed Brown because Lance Smith couldn't play in road games, but if Wisconsin needs to use Ball this season because of injuries then they could pull the red-shirt early.

BadgerCentric: Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.

On Wisconsin: I’m still not sold on Clay as the every-down back. The position takes more than just running the ball hard and I think Chryst’s offense looks for more flexibility with the back (see, e.g., Calhoun, Brian). Brown provides a lot more of that. I think Brown could see as many as 40% of the snaps, though probably only about 1/4 of the carries. Regardless, if they stay healthy, I honestly think this is the best 1-2 combination in the Big Ten this year.

Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?

On Wisconsin: Kendricks is dangerous enough to line up wide as a receiver every now and again, which makes sending in the right personnel tough for the defensive coordinator. I like that flexibility and with him and Graham out there you see a great 2-tight end set. That said, Mickey Turner played very well last season as a traditional tight end and several times proved he could make the catches we need that #2 tight end to make. Remember in 2006 when we went the whole season without a fullback? Worked out ok. I suspect Turner will play a fullback-ish role, but I think it will most often come after he lines up as a second tight end. I think we see very little of a traditional fullback this season. At least that’s my hope – our personnel are built for the 2-tight end set.

Hoops Marinara: I anticipate the Graham/Kendricks combo to surpass the Beckum/Graham combo ... of last season. That means accumulating more than 2008's 60+ catches, 800+ yards and 5 TDs. Very doable as long as they are both healthy.

Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: Lance Kendricks is very dangerous and we've seen in past years how much better UW's offense is when they have two tight ends that can catch the ball. As far as Turner goes, I think he gets a good amount of snaps at the traditional fullback position. The fullback has been pretty important in recent years and if they need to use him there they will.

BadgerCentric: I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not much more. With Graham and a solid group of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.

And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?

BadgerCentric: It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr if he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.

On Wisconsin: I guess I just don’t trust inexperienced players and I think Sherer got a bad wrap. He played very well after his first start (Iowa; that can hardly be blamed on him). He also got the ball to his WRs more than either Evridge or Donovan did, which is a positive. Did he look bad against FSU? In the second half, but he had little time to throw the ball and the offense was predictable at that point. I think we’ll see pretty solid (not spectacular) play from Dustin this year and the real battle will be redshirt Freshman Budmayr vs. Sophomore Phillips in 2010.

Hoops Marinara: Scherer to start. But it should be Phillips from Day 1. He's put a year in on the scout team already. Phillips has the running instincts that has brought Wisconsin success in the past (ie: Samuels, Bollinger) but a better arm.

Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: As of today it is going to be Dustin Sherer and should be Dustin Sherer because Curt Phillips and Jon Budmayr haven't shown enough yet to be considered a starter. Still, I find it slightly peculiar that Sherer isn't one of the three players representing the Badgers at Big Ten Media Days this year. We know -- and I think the coaches know -- that this is still Dustin Sherer we are talking about. He has never shown us anything spectacular and if Curt Phillips comes on strong during camp then it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sherer didn't start the season at quarterback. At the very least, I doubt Sherer starts all 12 regular season games.

I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?

Bucky’s Fifth Quarter: I think the Peter Konz chatter was a motivational ploy to get Oglesby going. We are getting close to that point where if Oglesby isn't starting now then he might never be starting. Bscherer will be fine at guard, but probably not spectacular. Fans should be worried about the depth right now, but I think guys like Travis Frederick and Jake Current will ease those worries by the end of the season. If the false starts and holding penalties don't stop then that reflects back on the coaching staff. I think that is one of a handful of improvements that we have to see this season or the hot seat will start scorching Bielema's rear end.

On Wisconsin: Oglesby was a 5-star because of his size, but Konz wasn’t a legit threat to his position; Josh will start. The fact that they moved Bscherer to guard, rather than demoting Oglesby, tells me Josh is doing ok, if maybe not living up to all the (probably unfair) hype. I see injuries at the guard position as a real concern. Freshman lineman aren’t something you like to see, and that’s where we are if Bscherer or Nagy goes down. Bielema and Chryst need to end the penalties. I’ve never coached football, so I don’t know how to do it, but it needs to happen. If it does, I think we’re looking at a solid line, maybe as good as last year (especially considering how many games Oglesby and Nagy played significant minutes in).

BadgerCentric: The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.

Hoops Marinara: I am looking for a hungrier group of lineman this year that could surprise some people. Bielema is not afraid to call guys out (remember P.J. Hill's "toughen-up pills"?), so Oglesby needs to get it together quickly. Everything looks if he finally gets it, even the depth. Unfortunately, I think as long as Bielema is the head coach some undisciplined play will be the norm. We know he's less of a cool collected guy than Barry, plus he's spread himself too thin.

Questions from Adam Hoge

The latest round of Badger football questions comes from fellow Cardinal guy Adam Hoge, this time regarding the defense. Here are my thoughts:

Can you believe it has been five years since that great defensive line of 2004? Depth is once again an issue this year, but there seems to be some promise in J.J. Watt among others. Do you see any newcomers stepping up on the D-line to provide some depth?

It's funny, because when you mentioned 2004, the first thing I thought was "I thought 2005 would be a down year, and we ended up winning 10 games, great year." But thinking about it further, that was in spite of the defensive line! Even so, while injuries killed that unit (remember Beckum playing end?), but guys like Shaughnessy, Hayden, and Chapman showed promise. I don't see those guys on this unit. O'Brien is a solid starter. Watt seems to have a Hayden-like ceiling. But are there difference-makers? Doesn't look like it. I'll be happy if these guys can keep offensive linemen off our linebackers.

Speaking of a lack of depth, the linebacking corp seems to be scrambling to replace Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy. Blake Sorensen didn't have a great spring, but he is still listed ahead of Mike Taylor on the depth chart. Are you worried about the linebackers?

Yes, very. Don't want to join the chorus questioning Sorenson, but I've never seen it with him. Saw Taylor play in high school and he was a stud, but we certainly can't count on him to be a standout this year. McFadden and St. Jean are average at best. And there is no one else. What about playing Pleasant at linebacker? We see so much Spread it might make sense to have a guy like that in the front seven.

Is it safe to say (and a little scary to say) that the secondary is the strength of the Badger defense? It seems like every guy listed on two-deep has shown flashes of brilliance at some point in the last few seasons, but they also have had their hardships. And will Aaron Henry really be as good as he looked like he would be before the knee injury?

It is scary, and I'd even question the "flashes of brilliance" assertion. We've seen flashes of competence from these guys, and I'd settled for sustained competence. But every one of the starters has question marks. Henry with the knee. Maragos still learning the position. Valai and his all-or-nothing hitter MO. Brinkley and big plays. But I'm actually optimistic about these guys, and the young guys too. Shane Carter is a wild card, if he could come in and force some turnovers that would be huge.

What are your thoughts on the defensive coaching staff? Toughness seemed to be an issue at times last season. How will this unit overcome the mental and physical shortcomings that were apparent in 2008?

I don't know about toughness, it's hard to get to be a guy who plays a lot on a Big Ten defense and not be at least somewhat tough. Remember, there were a lot of injuries on that side of the ball last year: Casillas, Levy, Chapman, Henry, and that hurt productivity. What sticks with me is comments made on my blog after the Iowa game. I forget who said it, but the point was made that our defense had finally adapted to deal with the Spread, but when we go against a power line and back like Iowa had, we get run over. That probably won't always happen, but there's a lot of truth there.

So by making the seemingly necessary adaptation to deal with the Spread, we have lost our identity as being a stout, stop-the-run defense, and become just another defense with a bunch of undersized guys running around in space. If these undersized guys were racking up sacks and interceptions, that would be on thing, but the unit seems mediocre at best, and it's not like next year looks any more promising. Some of that's on X's and O's coaching, but it's also recruiting and player development.

Good memory

This evening, while we were sitting down to dinner, Will walked out of the bathroom and says to me:

"Hey Daddy? Do you remember Luke Swan? Do you remember when he got hurt? Remember when he went up to make that catch and he came down and his leg went like this?"

At that point Will did his best 5-year-old-reenacting-a-career-ending-hamstring-injury routine. Apparently Will's recollection of our mornings together watching Michael Irvin's show is stronger than I anticipated.

Here's hoping we find another Badger for Will to fixate on this fall, and that his knowledge of him doesn't center around gruesome injuries.

And kudos to the kids at The Daily Cardinal, who captured the play in question in the above photo.

Questions from Duff Beach

Duff Beach, frequent commenter and blogger at Badger Sports Bar, recently emailed myself and several other bloggers some questions about the upcoming football season, to get us going. Trust me, it's tough getting motivated to blog during the summer. Duff's first round focused on the offense, my answers below.

What's your take on the WR's? Is Gilreath really the #1? Where does Jefferson fit in post multiple concussions?

Don't think Gilreath is the #1, not strong enough. Think it's gotta be Toon. Jefferson is the deep threat, can't see sending him over the middle any more. I have faith in Gilreath and Anderson to find openings in coverage, Brandon Williams types.

The Running Backs? Anyone else think Brown may take more than 1/3 of the snaps this season? Worried about depth?

Hadn't thought of it, but I agree Brown might take more than a third of the snaps, a combination of his being pretty good, Clay being in his first season as the main guy, and probably more third downs than we'd like.

Tight Ends? So Graham is a beast, how dangerous is Kendricks? Will Turner really just be a fullback already at the line? Will we ever even see a true fullback with this offense?

I can see fullbacks still playing a part of this offense, seems like we're still recruiting that type of kid. Turner's a blocker, not mucn more. With Graham and a solid good of wide receivers, I don't see Kendricks catching more than 35 or 40 passes, max, even if he's a lot better.

And the biggie . . . who's it going to be? Who should it be? And why?

It's going to be Sherer, at least at the start. It should be ... Budmayr is he's even close to being ready. A reach? Maybe. But my sense is he's the best passer of this group, he probably wouldn't be much worse than the other guys this year, and we could have him start for four years.

I guess on offense all that leaves is the line: How will it be with three new starters? Was Bielema serious that Konz could push Oglesby out of the starter's spot, or was he just making a point to Josh? How will Bscherer be at guard? Anyone else worried about a lack of depth at guard? Will anything stop the rash of false starts and holding penalties?

The line won't be as good as last year, but I'm not worried about it. Carimi is a stud, Moffitt's solid, and the other three starters have starting experience. I could see Konz beating out Oglesby, he struggled mightily at times last year. Bscherer I see being a Matt Lawrence type, someone who's not going to be a huge plus but isn't going to be a liability.

This guy walks into a bar and grill ...

Yesterday Jana and I were eating lunch at the Wolf River Campground between New London and Weyauwega, waiting to take Will on a canoe trip down said river. In walks Tim Jarmusz with a co-ed group of friends, set for a leisurely tube ride down the Wolf. He goes about doing what any of the other people there were doing.

As I related the story to my dad later, I'm probably the only person within an hour radius of here who would have recognized Tim as he walked in, which added to the experience. Sure, nothing noteworthy happened -- no reckless behavior, no big-timing the help staff, no $100 tips -- but any time a Badger makes a public appearance up in the sticks where I live, it's got to make the blog.

Concerned

This was my first Badger-related thought while reading through the Athlon season preview magazine: we don't look very strong. At all. Could really struggle this year unless the schedule is as soft as it seems.

Athlon puts us seventh, one spot behind Northwestern and on ahead of Michigan, which seems about right to me (although Illinois at fifth seems high after how mediocre they were last year).

I'll get into more detail as the season gets closer, but here's what I'm thinking mid-summer.

We have exactly one elite player, Garrett Graham. Gabe Carimi could get there. Nick Toon or David Gilreath could be elite, but will be held back by quarterback play. Jay Valai, John Moffitt, Jae McFadden -- those guys are solid.

My biggest reason for optimism, for both this year and the next couple, is our kickers. Our best teams have had above-average kickers, and Philip Welch and Brad Nortman have the potential to be above-average.

Then again, so does Gilreath as a returner, and the magazine issued a reminder that UW was 119th out of 119 Division I teams in average yards per kickoff return last year. So it's premature to call special teams a strong unit.

On the other hand, our defensive line seems like it will be weaker than at any point in the last 20 years. The linebackers don't seem like they're going to be generating many big plays. There are 20 returning defensive backs on the roster, but none of them seem like the guy I definitely want checking Arrelious Benn when we're up five and Illinois has the ball with two minutes left. And, of course, the quarterback thing.

Thing is, other than Ohio State and Penn State, the Big Ten is really up in the air, so anything can happen. But, as the title of this post implies, I'm concerned.

The Haves

Here's my second big takeaway from reading the Athlon preview: the truly elite teams in college football are so far ahead of the rest that it's not even funny. Here's the magazine's preseason top 5, which will probably be very similar to the AP's when it comes out in August, and with which I wholeheartedly agree.

1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Ohio State

Florida is an easy choice, even though they lost Percy Harvin early. But think about who some of these other teams lost.

Oklahoma's offensive line, best in the nation last year, was gutted. Texas lost Brian Orakpo and Quan Cosby. USC lost Mark Sanchez and a bunch of dudes from their nasty defense. Ohio State lost Beanie Wells, Laurinaitis, Malcolm Jenkins, Marcus Freeman, and a couple good wideouts.

So even though these teams all suffered significant losses, they are still head and shoulders above everyone else. These aren't Jonathan Casillases and Kraig Urbiks they're losing without skipping a beat, they're All-Americans and first round draft picks. That's no disrespect to Casillas and Urbik, but the point is that nowadays, our best players are topping out at mid-level all-conference picks, and we're going to take a step back without them.

It's not just Wisconsin that doesn't come close to measuring up to these heavyweights. Here are Athlon's #6-#10: Alabama, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss. None of those teams strike me as being able to beat any of the top 5 in a five-game series.

And it isn't going to change anytime soon, as these schools all had top-1o recruiting classes this year, per usual.

In many respects, this isn't unusual at all, as these schools all have tradition, regional advantages, and money. They've had down years or average stretches, yet are no strangers to the top 5. But I can't ever remember the disparity between the elite programs, the second-tier elite programs, and the solid programs being so great.

Big Ten all-decade team

As is my summer ritual, I finally cracked into my first college football preview magazine last week. This seems almost quaint now that we're seeing preseason top 25 rankings on the Internet before the bowl games are even over, but I'm old-fashioned that way.

Here's the first thing I found interesting in the Athlon book: a Big Ten all-decade team. Athlon's rule was that no school could have more than four players represented, and Wisconsin had four: Joe Thomas, Travis Beckum, Erasmus James, and Jamar Fletcher. All worthy choices. Here are the entire teams:

Offense
Drew Brees, Mike Hart (gag), Damien Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Charles Rogers, Beckum, Thomas, Greg Eslinger, Jake Long, Robert Gallery, Levi Brown

Defense
James, Mitch King, Lamarr Woodley, James Laurinaitis, Paul Posluszny, A.J. Hawk, Dan Connor, Vontae Davis, Jamar Fletcher, Bob Sanders, Mike Doss

Special teams
Nate Kaeding, Travis Dorsch, Ted Ginn, Antwaan Randle El

Great teams, not too much to quibble about. Davis on defense is one I question, beating out Marlin Jackson. Lee Evans was the third wide receiver. Hart was apparently a unanimous selection, while I still maintain that he is the most overrated college football player in recent memory. What about Laurence Maroney or Marion Barber? As good as Minnesota's running game was for much of the decade, they should have more than just Eslinger.

The balance of teams represented does clearly illustrate who has been the league's weak sisters this century: Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan State.

Non-conference hoops schedule

Last week we learned the identities of Wisconsin's non-conference basketball opponents this season. Not bad, comparable to the non-cons most similar programs play nowadays.

Cupcakes: IPFW, Oakland (maybe not), Grambling State, Cal Poly, Illinois-Chicago

In-state: Marquette, Green Bay, Milwaukee

Tournament: Arizona, Chaminade, Cincinnati, Colorado, Gonzaga, Maryland or Vanderbilt

Marquee: Duke

At first glance, that looks like about two or three losses heading into Big Ten play, but plenty of chances for resume-building wins. The only true road game is at Green Bay, which lost a bunch of seniors. Duke should win our ACC/Big Ten Challenge game, but I feel better about our chances than I would have if Gerald Henderson had returned. My feeling is Marquette will take a step back this year after losing those guards, but will still be strong and could very well beat us in Madison.

The Maui Invitational has a lineup full of big names that are probably not up to elite status and very beatable. My early bet would be Maryland winning that thing with Gonzaga next.

Would it be fun to play a non-conference schedule like the on Michigan State seems to play with regularity, full of top 25 teams? Sure, but that would most likely leave us with a losing record heading into January, and that just doesn't work. The Badgers' schedule gets a solid B or B-minus, and that's good enough.

Michael Bennett is fast

In another hit from the Charlie Woke Up Really Early collection, the other morning we watched the replay of the Wisconsin-Oregon game from 2000.

Here's the lead from the AP story:

Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez is staggering the suspensions just right.

Sure seemed like it, didn't it? After we pulled this one out, I was pretty sure the Shoe Box thing wouldn't stand in the way of us having a big season. Wrong-o.

Watching this game was a painful reminder of just how much talent that team had, and how they managed to lose four games.

Even without Chris Chambers, Mike Echols, and Nick Davis -- all future NFL players who sat out that game -- we still beat a very good non-conference opponent.

The way he ran the ball that day, it seemed like Michael Bennett could have carried the Badgers to national championship contention all by himself. It's not a stretch to say that no one has run faster in a Wisconsin uniform than Bennett did that day. Of course, previous post subject B.J. Tucker finished second to Bennett in the 100 at the Big Ten track tournament, but he was repeatedly burned by Joey Harrington that day while replacing Echols.

But look at who else played that day. Jamar Fletcher had three picks. Brooks Bollinger ran for the last touchdown. Lee Evans averaged 19 yards per catch.

And that doesn't even include guys like Al Johnson, Casey Rabach, Ross Kolodziej, Wendell Bryant, Jason Doering, and Nick Greisen. Kind of makes you appreciate the recruiting efforts in the years immediately following the first Rose Bowl, which didn't seem that great at the time but turned out to be pretty damn good.