Wednesday, September 24, 2008

1998 vs. 2006: Which was the better defense?

Raised this question in last week's bye week stat marathon, but wanted to take a closer look. Before delving back into the stats, let's consider some other variables first:

Coordinator: Kevin Cosgrove (1998) vs. Mike Hankwitz and Dave Doeren (2006). Not sure quite how to call this one. By this point in Barry Alvarez's tenure, he had probably moved away from much micromanaging of the defense and become the chief delegator. So this was likely Coz's show. But the '06 team was Bret Bielema's first, and after a great start as defensive coordinator in 2004, the defense was awful in 2005, and he was probably eager to show people Barry didn't make a bad choice. I'm going to go with Coz on this one. Edge: 1998

Defensive line: Tom Burke/Ross Kolodziej/Eric Mahlik/John Favret (1998) vs. Joe Monty/Jason Chapman/Nick Hayden/Matt Shaughnessy. Burke had one of the best seasons a UW defensive lineman has ever had (22 sacks!), Kolodziej played in the NFL, Favret was in his second year of a four-year starting career, and Mahlik was underrated. Monty was a plugger, Hayden regressed in his junior season, and Shaughnessy was solid if not spectacular. Edge: 1998

Linebackers: Bob Adamov/Donnel Thompson/Chris Ghidorzi (1998) vs. DeAndre Levy, Mark Zalewski, Jonathan Casillas. The '98 unit was long on experience and chemistry, the '06 unit was long on speed and big-play ability. Edge: 2006

Secondary: Jamar Fletcher/Mike Echols/Jason Doering/Leonard Taylor (1998) vs. Allen Langford/Jack Ikegwuonu/Joe Stellmacher/Roderick Rogers (2006). I like the '98 corners better, even if they were freshmen, and the '06 safeties better. Edge: Even

Schedule difficulty: The 1998 team held a high-powered Purdue team to 24 points in that classic night game when Jump Around was invented, gave up 27 points to Michigan in its only loss, and held just enough (31 points) against UCLA to win the Rose Bowl. No Ohio State on the schedule.

The 2006 team also gave up 27 points in the team's only loss ... at Michigan ... and allowed 24 points at home against Illinois, but missed high-scoring Ohio State. My first inclination is to call this even, but I saw all of the 2006 games, and the Big Ten was pretty bad that year. Holding an Arkansas team with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, both of whom look like Pro Bowlers, to 14 points is impressive, even if the Hogs' passing game was pathetic. Neither team stoned any dynamite, versatile offenses. Edge: 1998

Rushing yards allowed per game: 1998 - 92.2, 2006 - 114.8. Edge: 1998

Passing yards allowed per game: 2006 - 138.3, 1998 - 200.4 Edge: 2006

First downs allowed per game: 2006 - 13.7, 1998 - 16.0. Edge: 2006

Third down conversion % allowed: 2006 - 28.2%, 1998 - 34.7%. Edge: 2006

Turnovers forced per game: 1998 - 2.8, 2006 - 1.9. Edge: 1998

Points allowed per game: 1998 - 11.9, 2006 - 12.1. Edge: Even

It appears the numbers slightly favor the 2006 defense, but the personnel of the 1998 defense strike me as better, and in my opinion they did it against better competition. So I'm going to give the slight edge overall to the 1998 defense. What do you think?

If the 2008 defense can even approach these levels, we ought to be in good shape this year.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Personally, I'd say the 1998 defense was better. I think you severely underestimated their DBs. Fletcher even as a freshman made more big plays than Ike did in 06. Doering was a very good tackler. Would have guessed he played 5 seasons in the NFL? Not the practice squad but actually on the team. Maybe it's nostalgia since I went to UW '96-'00, but that 98 seemed to play smart and make the opponents beat themselves.

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