Keys to greatness: Defense

Bored yet? If not, let's plunge on with the defense.

Stat category, 15-year average, great team (1993, 1998, 1999) average, 2008 average thus far.

Rushing attempts per game: 35.4, 33.4, 28
In our three great seasons, we run the ball almost 18 times per game more than our opponents. This year thus far the disparity is 19.

Rushing yards per game: 139.5, 110.8, 87.7
That 1998 defense was nasty, wasn't it? Those guys allowed only 92.2 yards per game. I'm not ready to put this crew in that class, nor the class of the 1999 defense that allowed 109.9 rushing yards per game. But with a pretty good defensive line and pretty good linebackers, they could finish in the 120 ypg range.

Passing yards per game: 212.2, 205.6, 230.3
So what do we make of this? Are teams just passing more nowadays? Is this because Akron and Marshall were playing from great deficits in the second halves of those games? Or is our secondary just plain shaky? They haven't made me throw a pillow at the TV yet. It appears we'll get Aaron Henry back for Michigan, which should help in the nickel and dime.

First downs per game: 18.0, 17.2, 17.3
Not much to comment on here. One guess is that even when teams are getting beat handily, they're going to get some first downs against our second-string defense playing a vanilla scheme.

Third-down conversion percentage: 37.1%, 37.3%, 44%
Cause for concern? Not yet. This year's defense does not seem to have given up as many third-down conversions as last year's team, which allowed opponents to convert 38% of these chances.

Turnovers per game: 2.1, 2.5, 2.0
In average years, we're +0.5 turnovers per game; in great years we're +1.4. That's a big difference — 12 possessions per season.

Penalty yards per game: 49.2, 45.0, 39.0
Nothing to talk about here.

Points per game: 19.8, 13.7, 13.7
The bottom line. My guess is this year's unit ends up yielding about 17-19 points per game.

So it boils down to stopping the run and forcing turnovers. This defense can do it. Will they?