UW-Fresno preview

Let's get this out of the way right off the bat: I don't think Wisconsin will beat Fresno State tomorrow night.

Wherever my brother is when he reads this, he'll be rolling his eyes and grumbling about my set-the-bar-low philosophy.

But consider everything going against us:

-This is a program that routinely plays BCS schools and often beats them, and is not the least bit intimidated by our pedigree or size. They humbled us at Camp Randall seven years ago, a game I won't forget.

-This is at their stadium, which will be amped to a fever pitch. It's being billed as the biggest game in school history, and they will sure as hell be jacked for that. (I love Deandre Levy's quote about how they had "cute little T-shirts" made for the game.) If we come out flat like we did against Marshall, or suffer a quarter-long brain freeze like against Akron, we could get blown out in a hurry. Last year's loss at Penn State comes to mind as a worst-case scenario.

-This is a team that looked really good in the second half of its opener against Rutgers two weeks ago. The defense, especially, completely shut down Rutgers.

-This is a team with a lot of good players. One coach has said quarterback Tom Brandsteter is the best QB we'll see this year. Ryan Mathews is a good running back. A couple of their offensive linemen are all-conference caliber. They've got a really good tight end named Bear (Pascoe), and we've shown vulnerability covering tight ends. They've got an elite safety in Moses Harris. Lots of players here.

-Two of our best players, Travis Beckum and Jonathan Casillas, haven't played yet this year. They're bound to be rusty.

All that said, I can definitely see scenarios in which we win this game. Here are what needs to happen or what I'd like to see happen.

-Play like the underdog. So what if we're from the Big Ten and they're from the WAC? They should win this game. So try something to sucker punch them right off the bat, like an onside kick or a fake punt (see last year's game at Ohio State).

-Use their crowd-fueled energy against them. Call a screen on the second play of the game. Run a reverse on a kickoff return. Call some run blitzes early.

-Get Beckum involved immediately. Against Tennessee in the bowl game last season he was taken out of the game and even though Garrett Graham had a nice day, the offense was limited as a result.

-Put Casillas on Pascoe and bracket him with Jay Valai over the top.

-Pound the rock. Pound the rock, pound the rock, pound the rock. Even if we're not breaking off big chunks of yardage and first downs right away, or even if they get up 14 points early, the commitment to the run needs to be made. Even though Allan Evridge showed aptitude passing against Marshall, I would rather not put the game on his shoulders. Pound P.J., Zach, and Johnny behind our road graders and give us a chance to hold a stamina advantage in the fourth quarter.

An LA Times columnist wrote earlier this week that the loser of our game has more to lose than the loser of the Ohio State-USC game. I disagree -- the quality of both teams is established enough that barring a lopsided outcome both will be ranked afterward, and there's a lot of season to go. Realistically, neither one of these teams is a legitimate national title contender.

Fresno 26, Wisconsin 23. Prove me wrong Badgers!