Following the Ohio State loss there was grumbling about Allan Evridge's play, perhaps made more raw by his game-ending interception thrown back across his body right to a Buckeye defender. Edward opined that this is the worst quarterback play we've gotten since Mike Samuel.
Knee-jerk, I agreed with him. But, because I'm a nerd, I decided to check the numbers and see just how his performance compares to the Badgers' starting quarterbacks of the last 16 seasons. Let me roll them out there, then tell me what you think.
Quarterback rating: Average - 130.6, Evridge - 125.4 (Note: I couldn't find Brooks Bollinger's 1999 rating anywhere, and he only threw 140 passes that season)
Completion percentage: Average - 57.8%, Evridge - 56.6%
Yards per completion: Average - 13.2, Evridge - 13.1
Touchdowns: Average - 12, Evridge (projected) - 13
Interceptions: Average - 7.6, Evridge (projected) - 10
Attempts per interception: Average - 31.8, Evridge - 30.5
Seems like if anything, Evridge is negligibly below average in most of these categories. Now let's see where Evridge ranks among the other 15 starting quarterbacks' seasons in key statistical categories. Average would be eighth or ninth in these rankings.
Quarterback rating: Best - 1993 Darrell Bevell, 155.2, Worst - 2004 John Stocco, 109.8, Evridge - ninth, 125.4
Completion percentage: Best - 1993 Darrell Bevell, 67.8%, Worst - 2001 Brooks Bollinger, 51.4%, Evridge - 11th, 55% (Note: Bevell holds the top three spots on this list, Bollinger three of the lowest five — and he's the one who's had an NFL playing career!)
Yards per completion: Best - 2003 Jim Sorgi, 16.1 (thank you Lee Evans!), Worst - 1994 Darrell Bevell, 11.1 (that's why he was so accurate), Evridge - 10th, 13.1
Yards per game: Best - 2005 John Stocco, 224.6, Worst - 1998 Mike Samuel, 97.9 (how does a team go to the Rose Bowl throwing for less than 100 yards per game?), Evridge - seventh, 179.8
Touchdowns: Best - 2005 John Stocco, 21, Worst - 1998 Mike Samuel/1999 Brooks Bollinger, 6, Evridge - ninth, 13 (projected)
Interceptions: Best - 1998 Mike Samuel/2001 and 2002 Brooks Bollinger, 4, Worst - 1997 Mike Samuel, 13 (maybe that's why he threw 82 fewer passes the next year), Evridge - sixth, 10 (projected)
Attempts per interception: Best - 1999 Brooks Bollinger, 70, Worst - 1997 Mike Samuel, 19.5, Evridge - eighth, 30.5
Here again, Evridge's numbers are average or slightly below average. So from a strictly statistical standpoint, Evridge really isn't horrible, he's middle of the road for Badger quarterbacks in the last 16 seasons. That would be OK if expectations were for this to be a middle of the road Wisconsin team. This had a chance to be a really good one, but mediocre quarterback play has been one of the factors why it is now staring down a .500 record halfway through the regular season.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
How does Evridge compare?
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12 comments:
One thing numbers can't show is "hidden" yardage. This seems like one of Chryst's main problems with Evridge. He doesn't seem to hit the receivers in stride or in a position to gain extra yardage after the catch. Some of this is probably biased as I get more angry at some of his throws and don't remember all the junk Stocco and Bollinger threw. However, Chryst and Bielema have brought it up so they are not happy with it.
Went back into my stack of old media guides and looked up Bollinger's rating in 1999: It was 142.55.
Maybe I was being a little knee-jerk too. I still think Sorgi was a better passer (thank you Lee Evans indeed), and Bollinger and Donovan added a dimension with their feet and some clutch leadership. Stocco as a sophmore was probably worse than Evridge now, but hey he was a sophmore and had probably the best QB season in modern Wisconsin history the next year.
I also have to say that the amount of drops in the last two games will kill any QB's ratings. (I'm looking at you Kyle Jefferson)
However, Evridge has had a knack for stake-through-the-heart-nail-in-the-coffin mistakes the last two weeks. Not the way to leave a good impression with the fans.
Didn't Brooks play on some horrible teams? Shoe Gate anyone.
I don't have any stats or anything to back this up but my gut tells me if we had a Bollinger running this team we would be 5-0.
ajs - I can post Brooks' numbers later tonight, but he did lead a 5-7 team.
As far as the hidden yardage thing goes, that's exactly right, and what makes it even more frustrating is that he's capable of hitting tough, pressure passes - the touchdown to Gilreath against Michigan, the pass to Jefferson at the end of the first half against Ohio State.
I agree with Edward. While the statistics my prove otherwise, I just don't trust Evridge.
Schwalbach brought this up on Saturday, after the game, and I have to agree with him. Something along the lines of in recent memory, I don't recall having so much doubt when a QB drops back to pass with the game on the line. QBs have never been the focal point of our offense, but in the past even the worst ones seemed to be good enough to not screw up or cost us the game.
I'll admit I may be wrong on that point, but this year it seems that the blame is falling squarely on Evridge's shoulders. Particularly in the last two games.
Along the same lines as the point/counter-point with PJ and Clay, could you make the same argument with the quarterback position? If it can't get any worse with Evridge, why not put in youth and either see if they can salvage the season or prepare for next year?
A couple more points:
-Tyler Donovan threw a bad pass that was intercepted to end the Outback Bowl last year.
-Evridge is playing with inexperienced wide receivers and has been missing Beckum and Graham for much of the first five games.
-If you pull Evridge, who do you put in? Sherer? If he was better he'd be starting already. Phillips? He's the better long-term investment but short-term I think he'd be overwhelmed.
Tappa beat me to the main point I was going to make: Evridge's wideouts are inexperienced and the TEs have been banged up all season. We're not Miami or BYU: all of the quarterbacks mentioned on that list have had cringe-worthy performances.
Remember, AE had pretty much not played football for two years due to the transfer and sitting on the bench last season. Some of the mental mistakes were bound to happen. Finally, the guy did execute a successful game-tying touchdown (well, almost) and had the two-point conversion wiped away with the penalty.
Is it rust? Does Evridge think he's better than he actually is and force plays? One thing about the Badger QBs from that list is that I don't believe any of them would have thrown that pass against OSU late in the game. They would have scrambled for two or three yards and then tried again next down.
Would love to see Sherer get a shot at some point this year. Don't want to go into next year with another senior with limited experience (even less than Evridge). That way, we'll know if Dustin can get the job done, or we can prepare ourselves with the understandable ups and downs of playing a redshirt freshman QB.
I don't think there is any alternative. The likelihood of Sherer coming in and ripping it up is low. We gotta live with Evridge and hope he gets better... fast.
My reaction after the game was a bit knee-jerk and I agree that Evridge might be our best option here on out, regardless.
My biggest criticism is that he's a mediocre passer but doesn't seem to be willing to use his feet when he can. Wasn't he touted as being a relatively mobile quarterback. If that's the case, why haven't we seen it? Are these they types of decisions the coaches want him to make? We don't know.
Another thing to think about: people are more tolerant when you're breaking in a young quarterback and he is taking his lumps. At least you knew there is a pay-off at the end (at least there has been historically). With Evridge, he's not given that leeway. Expectations are higher for a senior regardless of how much time he's actually spent on the field. Fair or not, that's reality.
While I know it'll be frustrating at times, I look forward to Phillips or Budmayr or whomever. It'll be nice to have someone at the position for awhile.
As Matt was kind enough to point out, what I think Wisconsin is really lacking - especially the past couple years - is someone that can stay in the position for more than a single season. We're starting to get a reputation for one-and-done QBs and frankly, that's not fair to the offense.
It doesn't give the QB time to learn the offense and get used to his receivers; it doesn't allow the offense to get used to the QB; and right when they do get that game experience - which no amount of practice can replicate - they leave because their eligibility is up.
I have high hopes for Phillips personally. I'm assuming that Sherer will get the starting job next year and that they'll probably red shirt Phillips to save a year of eligibility. That'll give him two years of practice with the team under his belt before he goes in as a starter his third year. That will give the team three years with him and should help build up a solid offensive system around a player who's going to be around for a bit.
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