Thanks for all the comments, guys, I'll try to respond tonight before Weeds and Californication.
Having watched five weeks of the season, two weeks of Big Ten play, this is how I see things shaping up:
Contenders
Ohio State: Good team, but not as good as their recent juggernauts. Average passing game. Will lose at least two games.
Wisconsin: Defense is nowhere near as good as expected, offense might be better than expected. Best special teams in conference, can't be overlooked.
Michigan: Flawed - let's not forget those first two games - but still loaded with talent and character ... at least that's what Corso and Herbstreit keep telling us. (An aside: if Mike Hart played for, say, Missouri, would he be a Heisman candidate or being mentioned in the same breath as some of the all-time great running backs? He's a good back, one of the better ones in the conference and nation, period. PJ's every bit as good. I'll write this clearly for the search engines: Mike Hart is overrated. OK Elijah, you got my back, right?)
Could sneak in
Illinois: Maybe a little bit better than anticipated, probably a year from being scary good. Mendenhall, in my opinion, is the best RB in the Big Ten. They should be ranked. This is about the time, though, when Zook at Florida started losing games he shouldn't.
Michigan State: They've got some nice pieces. I say they beat either Michigan or Ohio State, maybe both.
Purdue: They seem good, but who knows? Still think Painter has some stinkers left in him.
Sun/Music City/Motor City Bowl-bound
Penn State: Could sneak into the Could sneak in group with that defense, but an 0-2 start is tough to overcome. Couldn't take advantage of Michigan still peeling itself off the mat.
Indiana: Glad we get them in Madison. Ike-Hardy (if Ike's tummy is better) is one of the best one-on-one matchups we'll see this year.
Iowa: Biggest disappointment in the conference. Bodes well for UW in recruiting wars. Should Ferentz have left while his stock was at its peak? Or are they in for another great run, and these lean years are like the Badgers' '94-'96?
Terrible, terrible teams
Northwestern: It'll be interesting to see how much time Fitzgerald to get things turned around. Loss to Duke was arguably more embarrassing for the conference than Michigan's loss to Appalachian State.
Minnesota: I see two potential wins here, Northwestern and North Dakota State, although NDSU is apparently pretty good, so they may go 1-11. And those uniforms Saturday night? Looked like their team bus crashed into a mustard factory.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Big Ten thoughts
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6 comments:
Great write-up and I agree with 99 or 98 percent.
Still think UW needs a more consistent return game before we label them best in the Big 10. Kicker and punter? Yes. But Gilreath still remains hit and miss on kick returns. Obviously, I loved the big return, but taking those kicks that landed in six yards deep into the end zone are inexcusable. Also, we need to figure out how to get better returns from punts.
But Gilreath has so much potential and I think he will only get better as season continues. We've had track guys before (Torian, Simmons, Whyte etc.) but I don't remember a guy with that much speed at UW since I've started following the team.
Did you get a chance to read Jimmy's interesting article on the defensive struggles? He talked about the lack of senior leadership as a possible cause. Good read.
Wisconsin +2.5 to +3 vs. Illinois ... when's the last time a No. 5 ranked team was an underdog to an unranked opponent?
With Gilreath, it's not so much speed as it is decisiveness - he picks a hole and goes to it as quick as it can, doesn't screw around. The negative to that is the hit he took against Iowa - vicious - but I like the way he runs it.
As for the line: can't argue with it, the way Illinois's been playing and our question marks. Should make for a great motivational tool, in case we still needed one!
The only thing I'll add to this is, Thank God the Sun Bowl and Music City Bowl aren't in the Big Ten bowl rotation anymore. Instead of El Paso and Nashville, the options are now Orlando and Tempe.
Thank you for subtly pointing out my mistake, Jim. Was that conference tie-in in place last year? Can't wait to play in the Champs Sports and Insight Bowls one of these years.
I believe last year was the first year of that arrangement. I'm thinking 2009 -- after they lose Casillas, Levy, Shaughnessy, Ike (who may already be gone by then), Beckum, Kemp, Vanden Heuvel, Urbik, Newkirk, Chapman and Langford -- might be the year for one of those bowls.
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